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NOV
11
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 15 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

THR's awards analyst offers his latest assessment of the race.

"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Silver Linings Playbook"

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • The domestic box office this weekend was shaken -- not stirred -- by the stateside arrival of Skyfall. The latest James Bond film grossed more in its opening day ($30.8 million) and opening weekend ($87.8 million, bringing its worldwide cume to $518.6 million) than any 007 film in history, not to mention the best reviews of any Bond film in recent memory. It certainly is noteworthy that former Bond Roger Moore told People, "In my opinion, it is the best, best Bond of all -- and Daniel Craig, I am full of admiration for him." Meanwhile, Wreck-It-Ralph and Flight, both in their second weekends, continued to exceed expectations, placing second and third, respectively. And Steven Spielberg's Lincoln opened in only 11 cities (it will expand significantly Nov. 16) but still pulled in an impressive $900,000 for a per-location average of nearly $82,000.
  • Joaquin Phoenix, the two-time Oscar nominee who is a best actor Oscar contender this year for The Master, recently described Oscar campaigning as "total, utter bullshit" and said "I don't believe in it" in an interview with Interview magazine. Those sentiments couldn't have pleased Harvey Weinstein, whose Weinstein Co. is distributing the film. He is widely regarded as the king of Oscar campaigning and expects his film's talent to partake in it. This week, for whatever reason, Phoenix walked back his remarks. In an interview in the Nov. 8 edition of The Sydney Morning Herald, Phoenix said: "I wouldn't have the career that I have if it weren't for the Oscars. I haven't been in a lot of movies that have made a lot of money ... and getting nominated for a movie has probably helped my career tremendously. It's not like I f---ing hate the Oscars. It doesn't occupy my time to where I can build up hate."
  • Les Miserables, Universal's primary awards hopeful, will open in theaters Dec. 25, more than a week after Oscar nomination voting begins Dec. 17. To make sure that voters can see the film on the big screen before it opens, the studio has scheduled a barrage of advance screenings, beginning with one Nov. 23 at Lincoln Center's Alice Tully Hall in New York. The next day, The New York Times has learned, the film will screen for the first time in Los Angeles -- six times within eight hours. Moreover, each screening will, theoretically, be attended by the film's Oscar-winning director Tom Hooper. Talk about making up for lost time!
  • Speaking of Les Mis, best supporting actress hopeful Anne Hathaway hosted Saturday Night Live on Nov. 10. Her opening monologue, which also featured the rest of the SNL cast, built in some terrific promotion for the film.
  • One final note regarding Les Mis: The film's international trailer was released this week and not only promoted the film but also put to rest some questions about Russell Crowe's supporting performance. Numerous pundits had remarked about the fact that earlier trailers, teasers and featurettes of the film had showcased clips of virtually every principal cast member singing except Crowe. He is certainly capable of singing -- he's in a fairly popular band -- but some speculated that something had to be "off" about his work in Les Mis because he was not being highlighted along with his co-stars. In the newly released international trailer, however, he is shown singing -- albeit briefly -- which should put that conspiracy theory to rest.
  • The Britannia Awards, which are hosted annually by BAFTA/LA and honor a select few filmmakers each year, took place Nov. 7 and aired on BBC America on Nov. 11. This year's ceremony, the 25th, was hosted by Alan Cumming and featured several tributes, including the following three: Best actor Oscar hopeful Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) received the Stanley Kubrick Award for Excellence in Film, best actor Oscar hopeful Daniel Craig (Skyfall) received the Britannia Award for British Artist of the Year, and best director/best original screenplay Oscar hopeful Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) received the John Schlesinger Britannia Award for Excellence in Directing. Day-Lewis stole the show, after being presented with his honor by Spielberg, by spoofing Clint Eastwood's empty-chair routine from the Republican National Convention.
  • The 26th AFI Fest came to a close Nov. 8 with the "official" premiere of Lincoln, which had previously screened during the 50th New York Film Festival last month. The end of the fest also brought the announcement of the winners of the fest's audience awards. The winner in the World Cinema category was Nikolaj Arcel's A Royal Affair, Denmark's entry for this year's best foreign-language film Oscar, which received a standing ovation at September's Toronto International Film Festival and also had its New York premiere on Sunday night.
  • The IFP, which host the Gotham Independent Film Awards, announced the nominees for its third annual Gotham Independent Film Audience Award. The highest-profile nominee is Fox Searchlight's narrative feature Beasts of the Southern Wild. The other four contenders, all docs, are Bartholomew Cubbins' Artifact; Tom Putnam and Brenna Sanchez's Burn: One Year on the Front Lines of the Battle to Save Detroit; Kirby Dick's The Invisble War and Jonathan Kalafter's Once in a Lullaby: The PS 22 Chorus Story. The winner will be determined by the public through online voting and announced Nov. 26 at the 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards in New York.
  • The Weinstein Co.'s main awards hopeful, Silver Linings Playbook, enjoyed some high-profile promotion in the run-up to its New York premiere on Monday night. The film's best actress Oscar hopeful Jennifer Lawrence was the subject of a flattering profile in Friday's New York Times, and writer-director David O. Russell participated in a Q&A at the Museum of Modern Art -- co-moderated by yours truly -- on Sunday evening.
  • The Weinstein Co. picked up the U.S. distribution rights to Joachim Roenning and Espen Sandberg's Kon-Tiki, the Norwegian entry for this year's best foreign-language film Oscar. Having the most ardent and aggressive awards campaigners fighting for you can only be a good thing for a small film.
  • Alexandre Desplat, the remarkably prolific composer who has garnered best original score Oscar noms in each of the past four years -- and who this year has provided the scores for Argo, Moonrise Kingdom, Rise of the Guardians, Rust and Bone and Zero Dark Thirty -- shared a few thoughts about Zero Dark Thirty, about which virtually nothing is known at this point (it opens Dec. 19), with Collider.com. The money quote: "I know it sounds like an action film, but it’s more like a Japanese [Akira] Kurosawa movie."
  • GKIDS, the tiny distributor of animated films -- three of which scored best animated feature Oscar nominations over much higher-profile competition in recent years (The Secret of Kells, A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita) -- has announced that it will host a special showcase of its 2012 features in Los Angeles from Nov. 14-18. Among the nine films that it will screen at the Laemmle NoHo 7 and the AMC Burbank 16 theaters are its four films that have qualified for consideration for this year's best animated feature Oscar: From Up on Poppy Hill, The Painting, The Rabbi's Cat and Zarafa. This certainly should help to raise the profile of these films as they prepare to compete with films from much larger distributors such as Disney/Pixar, DreamWorks Animation and Sony Pictures Animation.
  • The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its shortlist of 10 animated shorts -- chosen from 56 submissions -- from which the Academy's short films and feature animation branch members will select three to five nominees for the best animated short Oscar. The highest-profile of the films on the shortlist: John Kahrs' Paperman, a black-and-white Disney short, which is being shown in theaters before screenings of the studio's feature Wreck-It-Ralph.
  • It has been reported that The Weinstein Co. will push 2009 best supporting actor Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, one of the stars of their new film Django Unchained, in the lead category, not the supporting category as previously had been speculated. This would appear to be very good news for Leonardo DiCaprio, who now has one less co-star to compete with in the supporting category as he vies for his first Oscar, and very bad news for 2005 best actor Oscar winner Jamie Foxx, who now will have to compete with a co-star in the lead category, which is considerably more competitive anyway.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Major Threats
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Major Threats
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Van Sant (The Promised Land)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)

Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)

Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Walter Salles (On the Road)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Possibilities
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) NEW
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)

Christopher Plummer (Barrymore)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Major Threats
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)

Possibilities
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Amy Adams (Trouble With the Curve)
Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)

Major Threats
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
John Goodman (Flight)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Possibilities
Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained) NEW
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)
Nate Parker (Arbitrage)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty)
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
NEW

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Major Threats
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables) NEW
Possibilities
Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables) NEW
Judi Dench (Skyfall) NEW
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Emily Blunt (Looper)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Jennifer Ehle (Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)

Major Threats
Life of Pi (David Magee)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)

Possibilities
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)

Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Rise of the Guardians (David Lindsay-Abaire)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Possibilities
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Ted (Seth MacFarlane, Alec Sulkin, Wellesley Wild)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)

Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present (Music Box Films, 6/13, NR, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Samsara (Oscilloscope, 8/24, PG-13, trailer)
Paul Williams: Still Alive (Abramorama, 6/8, NR, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel (Samuel Goldwyn Films, 9/21, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria -- Amour
France -- The Intouchables
Denmark -- A Royal Affair

Israel -- Fill the Void
Switzerland -- Sister
Major Threats
Romania -- Beyond the Hills
South Korea -- Pieta

Norway -- Kon-Tiki
Chile -- No
Germany -- Barbara
Canada -- War Witch

Australia -- Lore
Belgium -- Our Children
Philippines -- Bwakaw
Netherlands -- Kauwboy

Possibilities
Japan -- Our Homeland
Mexico -- After Lucia
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Children of Sarajevo
Hungary -- Just the Wind
Bulgaria -- Sneakers
Greece -- Unfair World
Portugal -- Blood of My Blood
Serbia -- When Day Breaks
Morocco -- Death for Sale
Sweden -- The Hypnotist
Iceland -- The Deep
Czech Republic -- In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Samsara
Hitchcock
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Hunger Games
Sister

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln

Major Threats
Argo
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master

Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy

Possibilities
Flight
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers

The Hunger Games
The Impossible

End of Watch
Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock

Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)

Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Possibilities
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
Samsara (Marcello De Francisci, Lisa Gerrard, Michael Stearns)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln
Major Threats
Skyfall
The Impossible
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Flight
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Lincoln
Major Threats
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Impossible
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Flight
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Major Threats
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight

Possibilities
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney) NEW
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art) NEW
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.) NEW
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions) NEW
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films) NEW
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films) NEW
Dripped (ChezEddy) NEW
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm) NEW
Fresh Guacamole (PES) NEW
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School) NEW

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).