• The Hollywood Reporter on LinkedIn
  • Follow THR on Pinterest
JAN
15
3 MOS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott's Final Picks for Thursday's 86th Academy Awards Nominations

THR's awards analyst believes the leaderboard will be topped by "12 Years a Slave" (11), "Gravity" (10), "American Hustle" (9) and "Captain Phillips" (8).

12 Years a Slave Ensemble Cast - H 2013

On Thursday morning at 8:30am EST/5:30am PST, following months of screenings, socializing and speculation, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its nominees for the 86th Annual Academy Awards. That means that, for better or worse, it is now time for me to man up and lock in my final predictions of what/who those nominees will be.

PHOTOS: Golden Globes 2014: Red-Carpet Arrivals 

I urge you to keep in mind that what follows is not necessarily what I feel should happen -- that can be better gleaned from my year-end top 10 list -- but rather what I think will happen, based on a full year of movie-watching (I've seen all of the likely nominees multiple times), observations (of critics, guilds and other awards-bestowers), and conversations (with pundits and voters).

STORY: Chris Hemsworth to Announce Oscar Nominations 

Historically, I have done quite well when it comes to forecasting Oscar nominations -- for instance, I correctly projected best picture noms for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and a best supporting actress nomination for Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook (2012) when virtually no one else did -- but you have to prove yourself anew each year, and I hope to do just that.

Regardless of how things pan out, I thank you for taking the time to read what I have to say -- and urge you to share your own forecasts in the comments section below.

BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
1. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
HFPA, AFI, BSFC, TIFF, IFP, PGA, DGA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI, ACE, ADG, ASC, CDG
2. Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, PGA, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, VES
3. American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
AFI, NYFCC, HFPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, CDG
4. Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer)
AFI
, HFPA, PGA, DGA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, VES
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, PGA, DGA, BFCA, WGA, ACE, ADG
6. Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer)
AFI
, HFPA, PGAWGA, BFCA, FI, ACE, ASC, CDG
7. Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
HFPA, BAFTA, FI, CDG
8. Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
PGA
, SAG, WGA, BFCA, CDG
9.
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
AFI, NBR, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, PGA, BFCA, WGA, ACE, ADG, CDG
10. Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
AFI
, PGA, BFCA, ACE, ADG, CDG

Alternate Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer) AFI, IFP, NSFC, HFPA, BFCA, FI, ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS
Potential Surprise Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer) SAG
Shoulda Been a Contender Short Term 12 (Cinedigm, 8/23, NR, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
HFPA
, LAFCA, NYFCO, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) NYFCC
, BSFC, HFPA, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle) HFPA, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA
4.
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) DGA, BFCA, BAFTA
5. Spike Jonze (Her) NBR
, BFCA

Alternate Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) HFPA, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA
Potential Surprise Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Shoulda Been a Contender
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) FI

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
1.
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) HFPA, IFP, HFA, SAG, BFCA, FI
2.
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) BSFC, NYFCO, HFPA, IFPSAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
3. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) HFPA, SAG,
BFCA, BAFTAA
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
HFPA, BAFTA
5. Bruce Dern (Nebraska) NBR, LAFCA, CAN, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI

Alternate Robert Redford (All Is Lost) NYFCC, HFPA, IFP, BFCA, FI
Potential Surprise Christian Bale (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler) SAG

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
1.
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) HFPA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NSFC, BSFC, NYFCO, IFP, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Judi Dench (Philomena)  HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA AFTA
3. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) HFPA, HFA, SAG, BFCA, BFCA, BAFTA
4.
Amy Adams (American Hustle) HFPA, BAFTA
5. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) NBR, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA

Alternate Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Potential Surprise Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said) HFPA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Brie Larson (Short Term 12) IFP, BFCA, FI

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
1.
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) HFPA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NYFCO, SAG, BFCA, FI
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
3. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
4.
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Alternate Daniel Bruhl (Rush) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
Potential Surprise Will Forte (Nebraska) NBR, FI
Shoulda Been a Contender
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
1.
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) LAFCA, NYFCO, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) HFPA, NYFCC, NSFC, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
3. June Squibb (Nebraska) BSFC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
4.
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler) SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) HFA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA

Alternate Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) HFPA, BAFTA, FI
Potential Surprise Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Shoulda Been a Contender
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
1.
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, USC, FI, SC
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) NBR, WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, SC 
3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, USC, SC
4. Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, USC, SC
5. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater) LAFCA, NSFC, HFA, WGA, BFCA, FI, SC

Alternate August: Osage County (Tracy Letts) WGA, BFCA
Potential Surprise The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber) USC, FI
Shoulda Been a Contender
The Great Gatsby (Baz Luhrmann, Craig Pearce)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
1.
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer) NYFCC, HFPA, WGA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI, SC
3. Her (Spike Jonze) HFPA, NYFCO, WGA, BFCA, SC
4.
Nebraska (Bob Nelson) HFPA, WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, SC
5. Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen) NBR, BFCA, BAFTA, SC

Alternate Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack) WGA
Potential Surprise Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron) BAFTA, SC
Shoulda Been a Contender
Out of the Furnace (Brad Ingelsby, Scott Cooper)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Projected Nominees
1.
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, IAFS, ACE, MPSE, VES
2. The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IAFS
3. The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer) HFPA,
BFCA, IAFS, MPSE, VES
4. Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer) HFPA
, BFCA
, BAFTA, IAFS, ACE, MPSE, VES

5. Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) LAFCA, IAFSMPSE

Alternate Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer) HFA, BFCA, BAFTA, IAFS, ACE, MPSE, VES
Potential Surprise A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) IAFS
Shoulda Been a Contender Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, PG, trailer) IAFS,
MPSE, VES

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Projected Nominees
1.
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer) CEH, IFP, NSFC, EFA, NYFCO, BSFC, IDA, BFCA, BAFTA, DGA, FI
2. The Square (Noujaim Films/Netflix Originals/Participant, 10/25, NR, TBA) IDA, DGA, FI
3. Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer) NBR, LAFCA, NYFCC, IDA, CEH, BFCA, WGA
4. Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer) CEH, DGA
5.
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer) IDA, BFCA, BAFTA, ACE

Alternate 20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, FI, ACE, MPSE
Potential Surprise Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer) BFCA, BAFTA, ACE
Shoulda Been a Contender Casting By (HBO, 11/1, NR, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Projected Nominees
1.
Italy (The Great Beauty) HFPA, EFA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Denmark (The Hunt) HFPA, BFCA, FI
3. Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
4.
Palestine (Omar)
5. Cambodia (The Missing Picture)

Alternate Germany (Two Lives)
Potential Surprise Hong Kong (The Grandmaster) MPSE
Shoulda Been a Contender
Japan (Like Father, Like Son)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Projected Nominees
1.
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki) LAFCA, BSFC, ASC, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel) NYFCC, NSFC, ASC, BFCA, BAFTA, FI, IPA
3. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael) ASC, BFCA, BAFTA
4. 
12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbitt) ASC, BFCA, BAFTA, FI, IPA
5. The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd) ASC

Alternate Prisoners (Roger Deakins) ASC, BFCA, IPA
Potential Surprise Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd) ASC, BAFTA
Shoulda Been a Contender The Wolf of Wall Street (Rodrigo Prieto)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Projected Nominees
1.
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris) CDG, BAFTA
2. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson) CDG, BAFTA
3. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin) CDG, BAFTA
4. The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor) BAFTA
5. Oz: The Great and Powerful (Gary Jones) CDG

Alternate Saving Mr. Banks (Daniel Orlandi) CDG, BAFTA
Potential Surprise The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Trish Summerville) CDG
Shoulda Been a Contender The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor) CDG

BEST FILM EDITING
Projected Nominees
1.
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger) LAFCA, ACE, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA
2. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse) ACE, BFCA, BAFTA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker) ACE, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers) ACE, BFCA, IPA
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Thelma Schoonmaker) ACE, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA

Alternate Nebraska (Kevin Tent) ACE
Potential Surprise Rush (Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill) BSFC, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA
Shoulda Been a Contender Lee Daniels' The Butler (Joe Klotz)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Projected Nominees
1. American Hustle MUHS
, BFCA, BAFTA
2. The Great Gatsby MUHS, BAFTA
3. The Lone Ranger MUHS

Alternate Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa MUHS
Potential Surprise The Hunger Games: Catching Fire MUHS  
Shoulda Been a Contender Rush

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Projected Nominees
1. Gravity (Steven Price) HFPA
, BFCA, BAFTA
2. 12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman) BFCA, BAFTA
5. The Book Thief (John Williams) HFPA, BAFTA

Alternate All Is Lost (Alexander Ebert) HFPA
Potential Surprise The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (James Newton Howard)
Shoulda Been a Contender Captain Phillips (Henry Jackman)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Projected Nominees
1.
"Let It Go" (Frozen) HFPA, BFCA
2. "Young and Beautiful" (The Great Gatsby) BFCA
3. "I See Fire" (The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug)
4. "The Moon Song" (Her)
5. "So You Know What It's Like" (Short Term 12)

Alternate "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) HFPA, BFCA
Potential Surprise "Desperation" (20 Feet from Stardom)
Shoulda Been a Contender
"For the First Time in Forever" (Frozen)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Projected Nominees
1. The Great Gatsby (Beverly Dunn, Catherine Martin)
ADG, BFCA, BAFTA, IPA
2. Gravity (Rosie Goodwin, Andy Nicholson) ADG
, BFCA, BAFTA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Alice Baker, Adam Stochausen) ADG, BFCA,
BAFTA
4. Saving Mr. Banks (Susan Benjamin, Michael Corenblith) ADG
, IPA
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent) ADG, BFCA

Alternate Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena) LAFCA, ADG, BFCA
Potential Surprise The Invisible Woman (Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald)
Shoulda Been a Contender The Book Thief (Simon Elliott, Mark Rosinski)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Projected Nominees
1.
Gravity
MPSE , BAFTA
2. Captain Phillips MPSE, BAFTA
3. Lone Survivor MPSE
4. All Is Lost MPSE
, BAFTA
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug MPSE

Alternate Iron Man 3 MPSE
Potential Surprise The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Shoulda Been a Contender
Man of Steel

BEST SOUND MIXING
Projected Nominees
1.  
Gravity
CAS, BAFTA
2. Captain Phillips CAS, BAFTA
3. Lone Survivor CAS
4.
Inside Llewyn Davis
CAS, BAFTA
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Alternate All Is Lost BAFTA
Potential Surprise Rush BAFTA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Fast & Furious 6

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Projected Nominees
1. Gravity
VES, BFCA, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug VES, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Pacific Rim VES, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Iron Man 3 VES, BFCA, BAFTA
5.
Oblivion

Alternate Star Trek Into Darkness VES, BAFTA
Potential Surprise The Lone Ranger
Shoulda Been a Contender Man of Steel

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Key

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 64th Eddie Awards

ADG = 18th Art Directors Guild Awards

AFI = 14th American Film Institute Awards

ASC = 28th American Society of Cinematographers Awards

BAFTA = 67th British Academy Film Awards

BFCA = 19th Critics' Choice Movie Awards

BSFC = 34th Boston Society of Film Critics Awards

BIFA = 16th British Independent Film Awards

CAN = 66th Cannes Film Festival

CAS = 50th Cinema Audio Society Awards

CDG = 16th Costume Design Guild Awards

CEH = 7th Cinema Eye Honors

DCAC = 12th D.C. Area Film Critics Awards

DGA = 66th Directors Guild of America Awards

EFA = 26th European Film Awards

FI = 29th Independent Spirit Awards

HFA = 17th Hollywood Film Awards

HFPA = 71st Golden Globe Awards

IAFS = 41st Annie Awards

IDA = 29th International Documentary Association Awards

IFP = 23rd Gotham Independent Film Awards

IPA = 18th Satellite Awards

LAFCA = 39th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards

MPSE = 61st Golden Reel Awards

 MUHS = ? Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards 

NBR = 85th National Board of Review Awards

NSFC = 48th National Society of Film Critics Awards

NYFCC = 79th New York Film Critics Circle Awards

NYFCO = 13th New York Film Critics Online Awards

PGA = 25th Producers Guild of America Awards

SAG = 20th Screen Actors Guild Awards

SC = 2nd Screenwriters Choice Awards

SUN = 29th Sundance Film Festival

TIFF = 38th Toronto International Film Festival

USC = 26th USC Scripter Awards

VES = 12th Visual Effects Society Awards

WGA = 66th Writers Guild of America Awards

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg