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AUG
28
11 MOS

FEINBERG FORECAST: First Look at the 2013-2014 Oscar Landscape

Scott's first projections last awards season accurately foresaw 8 of the 9 eventual best picture nominees, as well as the eventual best actor and best actress winners.

Captain Phillips Film Still - H 2013
Sony Pictures
"Captain Phillips

Every week through the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

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He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated); precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others); and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Scott's first Feinberg Forecast of the 2012-2013 awards season correctly called 8 of the 9 eventual best picture Oscar nominees and the eventual best actor and best actress Oscar winners. Still, he cautions that any/all projections that come this early in the awards season -- just before the Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York film festivals -- are merely educated guesses.

Without further ado, here is the first Feinberg Forecast of the 2013-2014 awards season...

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer  )
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)

American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)

Twelve Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Foxcatcher (Sony Picutres Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Dallas Buyer's Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer
)
Her (Warner Bros., 11/20, TBA, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, TBA)
Labor Day (Paramount, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
The Counselor (20th Century Fox, 10/25, TBA, TBA)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer
)
Possibilities
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer
)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer  )
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
Grace of Monaco (The Weinstein Co., 11/27, TBA, TBA)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
The Fifth Estate (DreamWorks, 10/18, TBA, trailer)

Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros., 12/13, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
A Most Wanted Man (Lionsgate, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Diana (Entertainment One, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Invisible Woman (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Parkland (Exclusive Releasing, 10/4, TBA, TBA)

Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, TBA, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)
The Spectacular Now (A24, 8/2, R, trailer)
Frances Ha (IFC Films, 5/17, R,
trailer )))
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13,   trailer)
The Immigrant (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, TBA)
Venus in Fur (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, TBA)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Can a Song Save Your Life?
The Railway Man
Serena
Third Person

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Major Threats
Steve McQueen (Twelve Years a Slave)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
John Wells (August: Osage County)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Spike Jonze (Her)

Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Ron Howard (Rush)
Possibilities
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Justin Chadwick (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Ridley Scott (The Counselor)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)

Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Long Shots
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Bill Condon (The Fifth Estate)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)

Peter Landesman (Parkland)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Olivier Dahan (Grace of Monaco)
Oliver Hirschbiegel (Diana)
Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Jeff Nichols (Mud)
Anton Corbijn (A Most Wanted Man)
Roman Polanski (Venus in Fur)
Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Susanne Bier (Serena)
John Carney (Can a Song Save Your Life?)
Paul Haggis (Third Person)
Jonathan Teplitzky (The Railway Man)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

Major Threats
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Twelve Years a Slave)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)

Possibilities
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate)
Michael Fassbender (The Counselor)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)

Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Long Shots
Philip Seymour Hoffman (A Most Wanted Man)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Will Forte (Nebraska)

Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Casey Affleck (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby)
Chris O'Dowd (The Sapphires)
Tye Sheridan (Mud)
Terence Stamp (Unfinished Song)
Simon Pegg (The World's End)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jim Broadbent (Le Weekend)
Bradley Cooper (Serena)
Colin Firth (The Railway Man)
James McAvoy (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Judi Dench (Philomena)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Major Threats
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Amy Adams (Her)
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)

Possibilities
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Kristen Wiig (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Long Shots
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)
Scarlett Johansson (Don Jon)
Elizabeth Olsen (Therese)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)
Emmanuelle Seigner (Venus in Fur)
Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Lindsay Duncan (Le Weekend)
Kirsten Dunst (The Two Faces of January)
Nicole Kidman (The Railway Man)
Keira Knightley (Can a Song Save Your Life?)
Jennifer Lawrence (Serena)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave)

Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
George Clooney (Gravity)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Major Threats
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
Tim Roth (Grace of Monaco)
John Goodman (The Monuments Men)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Jean Dujardin (The Monuments Men)

Possibilities
Harrison Ford (42)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Colin Farrell (Saving Mr. Banks)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Benedict Cumberbatch (August: Osage County)
Daniel Bruhl (The Fifth Estate)

Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Long Shots
Daniel Oyelowo (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Ben Foster (Lone Survivor)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Joel Edgerton (The Great Gatsby)
Tobey Maguire (The Great Gatsby)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Ben Foster (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Josh Gad (Jobs)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Mark Ruffalo (Can a Song Save Your Life?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Lupita Nyong'o (Twelve Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Major Threats
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Catherine Keener (Captain Phillips)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)

Possibilities
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)
Rooney Mara (Her)
Cameron Diaz (The Counselor)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furance)
Jessica Lange (Therese)

Long Shots
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Viola Davis (Prisoners)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Portia Doubleday (Her)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station)
Sharon Stone (Lovelace)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Hailee Steinfeld (Can a Song Save Your Life?)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
Major Threats
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)

Possibilities
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
The Fifth Estate (Josh Singer)
The Railway Man (Frank Cottrell Boyce, Andy Paterson)

The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Long Shots
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro, Fran Walsh)
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
Parkland (Peter Landesman)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
A Most Wanted Man (Andrew Bovell)
The Great Gatsby (Baz Luhrmann, Craig Pearce)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Serena (Christopher Kyle)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Major Threats
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Counselor (Cormac McCarthy)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)

Possibilities
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)

Grace of Monaco (Arash Amel)
Long Shots
Diana (Stephen Jeffreys)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
The Bling Ring (Sofia Coppola)
The World's End (Simon Pegg, Edgar Wright)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili
, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG,
trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG,
trailer)
Walking with Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA,
trailer)
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
The Congress (Drafthouse Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA,
trailer  )  
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,
trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
20 Feet from Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer  )
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Major Threats
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA,
trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)

Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Possibilities
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising from Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Long Shots
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)

Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
The Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running from Crazy (
trailer)
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (submission-dependent)
Frontrunners
The Past (Iran)
Like Father, Like Son (Japan)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
Gloria (Chile)
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia & Herzegovina)

Major Threats
Omar (Palestine)
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)
The Lunchbox (India)
Boy Eating the Bird's Food (Greece)

Possibilities
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Long Shots
Soongava: Dance of the Orchids (Nepal)

Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottFeinberg for additional news/analysis!