Which 2012 Precursor Award Was the Best Oscar Predictor? (Analysis)

THR awards analyst Scott Feinberg shows which major critics, guild, and other awards were claimed by each of this year's Oscar nominees and eventual winners.
Courtesy of The Weinstein Company

The best Oscar pundits know which precursor awards are important to consider when it comes to making Oscar projections. Some of them have been doled out for years and have long track records of corresponding with the Academy's preferences (i.e. the DGA, PGA, and SAG); others, however, reflect the views of only small groups of people who are not at all represented -- directly or indirectly -- in the Academy (i.e. the critics groups), and therefore don't. To appreciate which of the precursor awards best predicted the last Sunday's Oscar results, check out the charts below (and the acronym key beneath it).

BEST PICTURE
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer) PGA, DGA, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, NYFCC, ACE, FI, SAG, ADG, ASC, CDG
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, AFI, LAFCA, WGA, ACE, USC, PGA, DGA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, ADG, IFP, FI, CDG
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, ADG
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) SAG, NBR, AFI, PGA, ADG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, WGA, CDG
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer) NBR, AFI, ADG, CAS, PGA, DGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE, ASC, WGA, CDG
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI, WGA, PGA, DGA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, WGA, ACE, CAS, USC
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, ASC, IFP, BFCA
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) DGA, HFPA
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) DGA, BFCA, BAFTA, NYFCC, FI, HFPA
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) LAFCA, NSFC
Alexander Payne (The Descendants) DGA, BFCA, HFPA, FI
Martin Scorsese (Hugo) HFPA, NBR, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA

BEST ACTOR
Demian Bichir (A Better Life) SAG, FI
George Clooney (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG, BAFTA
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) SAG, HFPA, BAFTA, FI, BFCA
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) BAFTA
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) NSFC, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
Viola Davis (The Help) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) HFPA
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) HFPA, BAFTA, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) HFPA, FI, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Jonah Hill (Moneyball) SAG, HFPA, BAFTA
Nick Nolte (Warrior) SAG, BFCA
Christopher Plummer (Beginners) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, NBR, LAFCA, FI
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo (The Artist) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Jessica Chastain (The Help) NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA, FI
Octavia Spencer (The Help) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) BFCA, NYFCC, WGA, HFPA, BAFTA, USC
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) HFPA, BAFTA
John Logan (Hugo) WGA, BFCA
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) BAFTA, USC
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) WGA, USC, NBR, FI, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) WGA, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) LAFCA
J.C. Chandor (Margin Call) FI
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA, FI
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) WGA, BAFTA

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
A Cat in Paris (GKIDS, NR, NR, trailer) IAFA
Chico & Rita (GKIDS, 2/10, NR, trailer) IAFA
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer) IAFA, PGA, BFCA, VES, MPSE
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer) IAFA, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, VES, ACE, MPSE
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer) IAFA, BAFTA, NBR, LAFCA, VES, ACE, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, MPSE

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer) FI, IFP
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer) WGA
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) NBR, DGA
Pina (Sundance Selects, 12/23, TBA, trailer) WGA
Undefeated (The Weinstein Company, 2/10, TBA, TBA) BFCA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland) BFCA
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, NYFCC, FI, BAFTA

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist (Laurence Bennett) ADG, BFCA, BAFTA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig) ADG, BFCA, BAFTA
Hugo (Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo) ADG, BFCA, BAFTA, LAFCA
Midnight in Paris (Anne Seibel)
War Horse (Rick Carter) BFCA, BAFTA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman) BAFTA, FI, ASC, BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth) ASC, BAFTA
Hugo (Robert Richardson) ASC, BFCA, BAFTA
The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki) ASC, BFCA, NYFCC, LAFCA
War Horse (Janusz Kaminski) BFCA, BAFTA

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous (Lisy Christl)
The Artist (Mark Bridges) BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Hugo (Sandy Powell) BFCA, BAFTA, CDG
Jane Eyre (Michael O'Connor) BFCA, BAFTA, CDG
W.E (Arianne Phillips) CDG

BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius, Anne-Sophie Bion) ACE, BFCA, BAFTA
The Descendants (Kevin Tent) ACE
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall) BFCA, ACE
Hugo (Thelam Schoonmaker) ACE, BAFTA, BFCA
Moneyball (Christopher Tellefson) ACE

BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs (Matthew W. Mungle, Lynn Johnston, Martial Corneville) BFCA
The Iron Lady (Marese Langan, Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland) BAFTA, BFCA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight) BFCA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)
The Artist (Ludovic Bource) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Hugo (Howard Shore) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias) BAFTA
War Horse (John Williams) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man or Muppet" (Bret McKenzie for The Muppets)
"Real in Rio" (Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett for Rio)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive (Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis) MPSE
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Ren Klyce) MPSE
Hugo (Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton) MPSE, BAFTA
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn) MPSE
War Horse (Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom) MPSE, BAFTA

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson)
Hugo (Tom Fleischman, John Midgley) CAS, BAFTA
Moneyball (Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick) CAS
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Peter J. Devlin, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers)
War Horse (Tom Johnson, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Stuart Wilson) BAFTA

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Tim Burke, Greg Butler, John Richardson, David Vickery) BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Hugo (Robert Legato, Edson Williams, Ben Grossman, Alex Henning) BFCA, BAFTA
Real Steel (Swen Gillberg, Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, R. Christopher White) VES, BFCA, BAFTA
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Scott Benza, Matthew Butler, Scott Farrar, John Frazier) VES

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dimanche
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll BAFTA
Wild Life

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is Bigger Than Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

* * *

ACRONYM KEY

ACE = 62nd Eddie Awards (February 18, 2012)

AFI = 12th AFI Awards (January 13, 2012)

ADG = 16th Art Directors Guild Awards (February 4, 2012)

ASC = 26th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (February 12, 2012)

BAFTA = 65th British Academy Film Awards (February 12, 2012)

BFCA = 17th Critics' Choice Awards (January 12, 2012)

CAS = 48th Cinema Audio Society Awards (February 18, 2012)

CDG = 14th Costume Design Guild Awards (February 21, 2012)

DGA = 64th Directors Guild of America Awards (January 28, 2012)

FI = 27th Independent Spirit Awards (February 25, 2012)

HFPA = 69th Golden Globe Awards (January 15, 2012)

IAFA = 39th Annie Awards (February 4, 2012)

IFP = 21st Gotham Independent Film Awards (November 28, 2011)

LAFCA = 37th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (January 13, 2012)

MPSE = 59th Golden Reel Awards (February 19, 2012)

NBR = 83rd National Board of Review Awards (January 10, 2012)

NSFC = 46th National Society of Film Critics Awards (January 7, 2012)

NYFCC = 77th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (January 9, 2012)

PGA = 23rd Producers Guild of America Awards (January 21, 2012)

SAG = 18th Screen Actors Guild Awards (January 29, 2012)

USC = 24th USC Scripter Awards (February 18, 2012)

VES = 10th Visual Effects Society Awards (February 7, 2012)

WGA = 64th Writers Guild of America Awards (February 19, 2012)

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