Oscars: Globe and SAG Noms Don't Always Point the Way

Are Golden Globe and SAG nominees Viggo Mortensen, Hugh Grant and Octavia Spencer now slam-dunks to land Oscar nominations? And are Tom Hanks, Kevin Costner and Warren Beatty, who were snubbed by both groups, definitely out of Oscar contention? THR's awards analyst weighs in.
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Viggo Mortensen in 'Captain Fantastic' (left), Tom Hanks in 'Sully'

In the first flush of this week's Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominations, there's been a rush, by some, to decree that the table has been set for the Oscar nominations — even though the Academy hasn't even begun its voting process and its noms won't be announced until Jan. 24. Some performers, like Sully's Tom Hanks, Hidden Figures' Kevin Costner and Rules Don't Apply's Warren Beatty, have been virtually written off, while others, particularly those who received both Globe and SAG noms, have been treated as if their Oscar nomination now is guaranteed. But not so fast.

Far too often, people forget the major distinctions — in terms of size, origin and background — between the groups that determine the nominations for the Golden Globe Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards and Academy Awards. SAG noms are determined by 2,500 randomly selected, U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA; Golden Globe noms are decided by roughly 90 Los Angeles-based journalists for foreign media outlets; and Oscar noms reflect the roughly 7,000 voting members of the Academy, people from all over the world who actually work on movies.

Because many — in fact, most — Oscar-nominated performances do receive Globe and/or SAG noms en route to their Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag Globe and/or SAG noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that, conversely, performances that do earn SAG and/or Globe noms are locks for Oscar noms. But a look at the last 15 years of results from all three groups does not entirely bear those assumptions out.

Since 2001, 24 of the 300 acting Oscar nominees — or eight percent — received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom en route to the big show. The Oscar nominees who prevailed despite a cold shoulder from the Globes and SAG are:

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress
22. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years, 2015) for best actress
23. Tom Hardy (The Revenant, 2015) for best supporting actor
24. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, 2015) for best supporting actor

Now, many of these performances came in late-year releases (i.e., Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Cooper in American Sniper, Hardy in The Revenant), which probably prevented some SAG and Globes voters from seeing them. Others were smallish performances in big contenders (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild) and may have picked up additional steam after the SAG and Globe noms were announced. And still others were the beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that finally resonated with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour and Cotillard in Two Days, One Night).

Fun fact: Only one person ever has won an Oscar following Globe and SAG snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 29 performances — or nine and two-thirds percent — that received both Globe and SAG noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best supporting actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress
27. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation, 2015) for best supporting actor
28. Michael Shannon (99 Homes, 2015) for best supporting actor
29. Helen Mirren (Trumbo, 2015) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen (such as Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions, Aniston in Cake and Shannon in 99 Homes) and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Others came from movie stars who had rarely done "serious movies" at that point in their careers but who were trying to be seen in a new light (e.g., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart and Kunis in Black Swan). And still others were simply in jam-packed categories in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (e.g. Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).

So let's apply this to 2016.

The following 18 individuals are now nominated for both Globe and SAG awards:

1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) for best actor
2. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) for best actor
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land) for best actor
4. Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) for best actor
5. Denzel Washington (Fences) for best actor
6. Amy Adams (Arrival) for best actress
7. Natalie Portman (Jackie) for best actress
8. Emma Stone (La La Land) for best actress
9. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) for best actress
10. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) for best supporting actor
11. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) for best supporting actor
12. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) for best supporting actor*
13. Dev Patel (Lion) for best supporting actor
14. Viola Davis (Fences) for best supporting actress
15. Naomie Harris (Moonlight) for best supporting actress
16. Nicole Kidman (Lion) for best supporting actress
17. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) for best supporting actress
18. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea) for best supporting actress

The following 14 individuals received a Globe or SAG nom:

1. Joel Edgerton (Loving) for best actor
2. Colin Farrell (The Lobster) for best actor
3. Jonah Hill (War Dogs) for best actor
4. Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool) for best actor
5. Annette Bening (20th Century Women) for best actress
6. Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) for best actress
7. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane) for best actress
8. Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply) for best actress
9. Isabelle Huppert (Elle) for best actress
10. Ruth Negga (Loving) for best actress
11. Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) for best actress
12. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) for best supporting actor
13. Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins) for best supporting actor
14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) for best supporting actor

And the following individuals received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom:

Ben Affleck (Live by Night) for best actor
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply) for best actor
Adam Driver (Paterson) for best actor
Andrew Garfield (Silence) for best actor
Tom Hanks (Sully) for best actor
Michael Keaton (The Founder) for best actor
Matthew McConaughey (Gold) for best actor
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water) for best actor
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day) for best actor
Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals) for best actress
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship) for best actress
Marion Cotillard (Allied) for best actress
Rebecca Hall (Christine) for best actress
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) for best actress
Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures) for best supporting actor
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water) for best supporting actor
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences) for best supporting actor
Mykelti Williamson (Fences) for best supporting actor
Issey Ogata (Silence) for best supporting actor
David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe) for best supporting actor
Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky) for best supporting actor
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) for best supporting actor
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women) for best supporting actress
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) for best supporting actress
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky) for best supporting actress
Sienna Miller (Live by Night) for best supporting actress
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures) for best supporting actress
Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe) for best supporting actress
Molly Shannon (Other People) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Based on the last 15 years, it's reasonable to assume that at least one — and possibly as many as four — of the 18 performances that received Globe and SAG noms this year will not go on to receive an Oscar nom. And at least one of the many performances that received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom will go on to receive an Oscar nom.

Which of the Globe-SAG nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? I would argue that those most in danger include: Mortensen, whose little indie, Captain Fantastic, came out way back in July and may now be closer to the bottom of those screener piles than more recent and higher-profile releases; Florence Foster Jenkins' Grant, whose categorization clearly is being debated, for while Paramount's expressed preference is that he be considered in the supporting actor category, the Globes nominated him as lead comedy actor while SAG nominated him as a supporting actor, and as a supporting actor he could also lose votes to his Globes-nominated co-star Helberg; and Hidden Figures' Spencer, who also is competing against a co-star (Monae, who actually has a flashier part) for a movie that has proven divisive.

And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be revived by the Academy? I would argue that those most primed for a comeback are Hanks, who hasn't been Oscar-nominated in 16 years, but whose performance in Sully has received significant acclaim and whose movie has been more widely seen than almost any other in contention; Hidden Figures' Costner, another A-lister long absent from Oscar contention (his last nom came 26 seasons ago for Dances With Wolves), who will be competing in the relatively thin supporting actor category; and Beatty, who has a long history with and many friends in the Academy and who has supported Rules Don't Apply by campaigning more relentlessly than anyone this season for what many realize could well be his last film.

All that being said, a lot still can happen between now and the Oscar nominations announcement on Jan. 13, so stay tuned!

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