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3 YEARS

Feinberg Forecast: Early Favorites Include 'The Help,' George Clooney, Glenn Close, Brad Pitt, and Meryl Streep

THR's awards analyst reveals his latest survey of the Oscar landscape.

With the Venice and Telluride film festivals now in progress, and the Toronto International Film Festival set to get underway Thursday, I thought that now would be a fun time to document my early read of the Oscar landscape that awaits us. Needless to say, these projections are based on limited information and will be subject to many updates/revisions over the coming months (I will be posting a new/updated forecast every Sunday night), but, for now, I see them as a fun discussion starter. Your thoughts?

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
J. Edgar
(Warner Brothers, 11/11, ?, ?)
War Horse (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Paramount/Warner Brothers, 12/25, ?, ?)
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, ?, trailer)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, ?, trailer)
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, ?, trailer)
Major Threats
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, ?, trailer)
Like Crazy (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, PG-13, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)
The Iron Lady (Sony, 12/21, ?, teaser)
Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer)
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
Martha Marcy May Marlene (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)
My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/4, ?, ?)
A Dangerous Method (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Young Adult (Paramount, ?/?, ?, 12/9)
The Way (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/7, ?, trailer)
Possibilities
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Pariah (Focus Features, 12/25, ?, trailer)
Take Shelter (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/7, ?, ?)
Contagion (Warner Brothers, 9/9, ?, trailer)
Machine Gun Preacher (Relativity Media, 9/23, R, trailer)
Melancholia (Magnolia, 11/4, ?, trailer)
Coriolanus (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, ?, trailer)
The Rum Diary (FilmDistrict, 10/28, ?, trailer)
Albert Nobbs (Liddell Entertainment/Roadside Attractions, ?/?, ?, ?)
Win Win (Fox Searchlight, 3/18, R, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, ?, ?)
Warrior (Lionsgate, 9/9, PG-13, trailer)
Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, ?, trailer)
We Need to Talk About Kevin (Oscilloscope, ?/?, ?, ?)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Take This Waltz (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Wuthering Heights (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)

Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Drake Doremus (Like Crazy)
Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin)
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
Possibilities
Jonathan Levine (50/50)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Simon Curtis (My Week With Marilyn)
David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method)
Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
Emilio Estevez (The Way)
Dee Rees (Pariah)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Steven Soderbergh (Contagion)
Marc Forster (Machine Gun Preacher)
Lars von Trier (Melancholia)
Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus)
Bruce Robinson (The Rum Diary)
Rodrigo Garcia (Albert Nobbs)
Tom McCarthy (Win Win)
Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey)
Gavin O'Connor (Warrior)
J.J. Abrams (Super 8)
Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Andrea Arnold (Wuthering Heights)
Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Major Threats
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)
Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)
Christoph Waltz (Carnage)
John C. Reilly (Carnage)
Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary)
Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus)
Martin Sheen (The Way)
Sam Shepard (Blackthorn)
Possibilities
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Gerard Butler (Machine Gun Preacher)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Antonio Banderas (The Skin I Live In)
Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
Tom Hardy (Warrior)
Joel Edgerton (Warrior)
Dominic Cooper (The Devil's Double)
Rhys Ifans (Anonymous)
Asa Butterfield (Hugo)
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Henry Hopper (Restless)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Sean Penn (This Must Be the Place)
Christopher Plummer (Barrymore)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Major Threats
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Jodie Foster (Carnage)
Kate Winslet (Carnage)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Possibilities
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
Emma Stone (The Help)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Sarah's Key)
Abbie Cornish (W.E)
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)
Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day)
Mia Wasikowska (Restless)
Katie O'Grady (Rid of Me)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Jane Fonda (Peace, Love, & Misunderstanding)
Jennifer Hudson (Winnie)
Frances McDormand (This Must Be the Place)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)

Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Major Threats
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Thomas Haden Church (We Bought a Zoo)
Jeffrey Wright (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Possibilities
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March)
Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March)
Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
Jude Law (Hugo)
Richard Jenkins (The Rum Diary)
Aaron Eckhart (The Rum Diary)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Terrence Howard (Winnie)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Judi Dench (My Week with Marilyn)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Major Threats
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
Emily Watson (War Horse)
Anna Kendrick (50/50)
Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March)
Andrea Riseborough (W.E)
Michelle Monaghan (Machine Gun Preacher)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Possibilities
Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs)
Vanessa Redgrave (Anonymous)
Chloe Moretz (Hugo)
Alexandra Roach (The Iron Lady)
Charlotte Rampling (Melancholia)
Emily Mortimer (Hugo)
Elle Fanning (We Bought a Zoo)
Stephanie Szotak (We Bought a Zoo)
Demi Moore (Another Happy Day)
Orianna Herrman (Rid of Me)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Judy Davis (The Eye of the Storm)
Charlotte Rampling (The Eye of the Storm)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Major Threats
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)
Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
Possibilities
Lars von Trier (Melancholia)
John Logan (Coriolanus)
Bruce Robinson (The Rum Diary)
John Banville, Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Emilio Estevez (The Way)
John Logan (Hugo)
Cliff Dorfman, Gavin O'Connor, Anthony Tambakis (Warrior)
Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Olivia Hetreed (Wuthering Heights)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)
Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady)
Major Threats
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Will Reiser (50/50)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)
Adrian Hodges (My Week with Marilyn)
Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Dee Rees (Pariah)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Scott Z. Burns (Contagion)
Possibilities
Jason Keller (Machine Gun Preacher)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
J.J. Abrams (Super 8)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey)
Sam Levinson (Another Happy Day)
James Westby (Rid of Me)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, ?, ?)
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, not yet rated, trailer)
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, ?, trailer)

Major Threats
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, ?, ?)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, ?, trailer)
The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, ?, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
The Dreaming Machine (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Rabbi's Cat (?, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Tales of the Night (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, ?, trailer)
Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, ?, trailer)
Major Threats
The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, ?/?, ?, ?)
Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Page One: Inside the New York Times (Magnolia, 6/24, ?, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (New Video, 10/?, ?, ?)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Entertainment, ?/?, ?, ?)
Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
How to Die in Oregon (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, ?/?, ?, ?)
Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/?, ?, ?)
Life in a Day (National Geographic, 7/24, ?, ?)
The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, ?/?, ?, trailer)
African Cats (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Footnote (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Into the Abyss (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Whale (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

PICTURED: Emma Stone, left, Octavia Spencer and Viola Davis in "The Help" (Credit: Disney)