December 20, 2011 11:45am PT by Scott Feinberg
FEINBERG & FRIENDS, Ep. 9: Scott Feinberg & Movieline's S.T. VanAirsdale Discuss the Race (Audio)
I'm very pleased to bring you the ninth episode of "Feinberg & Friends," THR's weekly podcast about the awards race.
Each episode features a discussion between me and a different guest -- a film blogger, critic or journalist of some other variation -- about 10 different awards-related topics (which we list in the text accompanying the audio so that you know exactly what you're signing up for) and runs for approximately 30 to 40 minutes (so that if one topic is not of particular interest to you it will only be about three or four minutes before we're on to the next one, which hopefully will be).
I was delighted that my friend S.T. VanAirsdale, who serves as the awards blogger for Movieline, agreed to join me for this episode. I really enjoyed our chat, during which we tackled the following 10 questions...
1. Last Tuesday the BFCA announced its nominations for the 17th annual Critics' Choice Awards. They were the first group to strongly embrace Drive and The Ides of March; the only group to recognize Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; and the latest group to champion Bridesmaids star Melissa McCarthy. Which of their selections will be upheld -- and which will be overturned -- by the Academy?
2. Last Wednesday SAG announced its nominations for the 18th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. They shocked everyone by snubbing Albert Brooks (Drive) and Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) and by nominating Demian Bichir (A Better Life) and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), among others. SAG has historically been the most accurate predictor of Oscar acting nods, but will that remain the case this year?
3. Last Thursday the HFPA announced its nominations for the 69th annual Golden Globe Awards. As always, they threw us a few curveballs -- for instance, nominating Brendan Gleeson (The Guard), Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet (Carnage), and x, but not Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) -- but they also got more serious than they have been in past years and nominated the likes of Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) for best supporting actor, and Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin). Is it time to start taking them more seriously?
4. Historically, actors nominated by both SAG and the HFPA have almost always wound up with an Oscar nod, while actors nominated for neither almost never have. Considering that nly one person who was snubbed by both SAG and HFPA still made the cut with the Academy in each of the last three years -- Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009), and Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor -- is it now time to cross some people off of our contender lists, or might someone still beat the odds?
5. It seems likely that the HFPA will award its best picture (musical or comedy) Golden Globe to The Artist, which led this year's Globes field with six nods and is also the apprent Oscar favorite. (It would be the first best picture [musical or comedy] Globe winner to win the best picture Oscar since Chicago a decade ago.) Which of this year's Globe-nominated dramas -- The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, or Moneyball -- is most likely to win that category? And will whichever one does automatically become the strongest threat to upend The Artist at the Oscars?
6. Based on everything that we know at the moment, which films appear to be in good shape for best picture Oscar nods?
7. Based on everything that we know at the moment, which films appear to be in good shape for best screenplay (adapted and original) Oscar nods?
8. Based on everything that we know at the moment, which films appear to be in good shape for best documentary (feature) Oscar nods?
9. Based on everything that we know at the moment, which films appear to be in good shape for best foreign language film Oscar nods?
10. Which studio and/or PR firm's awards campaign has provided the biggest bang for the buck for their film? In other words, who has made "the most" with "the least"?
Give it a listen (above)...