Feinberg Forecast
Award Predictions 2015-16

Scott's picks will be updated each week leading up to the Oscars. He has been forecasting awards since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all pundits at doing so.

This Week's Updates:

Drawing upon personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters), THR’s awards analyst currently projects that…

  • If the Oscars were tomorrow and voters could consider only contenders that have already been screened, Spotlight would win best picture, Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) would win best director, Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) would win best actor, Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) would win best actress, Joel Edgerton (Black Mass) would win best supporting actor, Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) would win best supporting actress, Brooklyn would win best adapted screenplay, Spotlight would win best original screenplay, Inside Out would win best animated feature, Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief would win best documentary feature and “See You Again” (Furious 7) would win best original song.
  • A year after the #OscarsSoWhite ceremony, Straight Outta Compton will be a best picture Oscar nominee, and two people of color will receive acting noms: Concussion‘s Will Smith and Compton‘s supporting actor Jason Mitchell.
  • Three recent winners have a strong shot at winning again this cycle: director Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant) and actor Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), who won at the most recent Oscars; and actress Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), who won three ceremonies ago.
Notify Me About Weekly Predictions

Best Picture - Front Runners

1
The Revenant
20th Century Fox
Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
2
Spotlight
Open Road
Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust
3
Joy
20th Century Fox
John Davis, Ken Mok, David O. Russell, Megan Ellison, Jon Gordon
4
Brooklyn
Fox Searchlight
Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey
5
The Big Short
Paramount
Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner
6
Straight Outta Compton
Universal
Ice Cube, Dr. Dre, F. Gary Gray, Matt Alvarez, Scott Bernstein
7
The Danish Girl
Focus Features
Gail Mutrux, Anne Harrison, Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Tom Hooper
8
Steve Jobs
Universal
Mark Gordon, Guymon Casady, Scott Rudin, Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
9
Room
A24
Ed Guiney
10
The Hateful Eight
The Weinstein Co.
Richard N. Gladstein, Stacey Sher, Shannon McIntosh

Best Picture - Major Threats

Best Picture - Possibilities

Best Picture - Long Shots

Best Directing - Front Runners

1
Alejandro G. Inarritu
The Revenant
2
Tom McCarthy
Spotlight
3
David O. Russell
Joy
4
Tom Hooper
The Danish Girl
5
J.J. Abrams
Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens

Best Directing - Major Threats

Best Directing - Possibilities

Best Directing - Long Shots

Best Actor - Front Runners

1
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
2
Eddie Redmayne
The Danish Girl
3
Johnny Depp
Black Mass
4
Will Smith
Concussion
5
Michael Fassbender
Steve Jobs

Best Actor - Major Threats

Best Actor - Possibilities

Best Actor - Long Shots

Best Actress - Front Runners

1
Jennifer Lawrence
Joy
2
Saoirse Ronan
Brooklyn
3
Brie Larson
Room
4
Charlotte Rampling
45 Years
5
Cate Blanchett
Carol

Best Actress - Major Threats

Best Actress - Possibilities

Best Actress - Long Shots

Best Supporting Actor - Front Runners

1
Tom Hardy
The Revenant
2
Joel Edgerton
Black Mass
3
Jason Mitchell
Straight Outta Compton
4
Paul Dano
Love & Mercy
5
Mark Ruffalo
Spotlight

Best Supporting Actor - Major Threats

Best Supporting Actor - Possibilities

Best Supporting Actor - Long Shots

Best Supporting Actress - Front Runners

1
Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
2
Jennifer Jason Leigh
The Hateful Eight
3
Rooney Mara
Carol
4
Kate Winslet
Steve Jobs
5
Jane Fonda
Youth

Best Supporting Actress - Major Threats

Best Supporting Actress - Possibilities

Best Supporting Actress - Long Shots

Best Adapted Screenplay - Front Runners

1
The Revenant
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
2
Steve Jobs
Aaron Sorkin
3
Brooklyn
Nick Hornby
4
The Big Short
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay
5
Room
Emma Donoghue

Best Adapted Screenplay - Major Threats

Best Adapted Screenplay - Possibilities

Best Adapted Screenplay - Long Shots

Best Original Screenplay - Front Runners

1
Spotlight
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
2
Joy
David O. Russell & Annie Mumolo
3
The Hateful Eight
Quentin Tarantino
4
Bridge of Spies
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Matt Charman
5
Inside Out
Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve

Best Original Screenplay - Major Threats

Best Original Screenplay - Possibilities

Best Original Screenplay - Long Shots

Best Animated Feature - Front Runners

1
Inside Out
Disney-Pixar
2
The Good Dinosaur
Disney-Pixar
3
The Prophet
GKIDS
4
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Lionsgate
5
Anomalisa
Paramount

Best Animated Feature - Major Threats

Best Animated Feature - Possibilities

Best Documentary Feature - Front Runners

1
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
HBO
2
Best of Enemies
Magnolia
3
Seymour: An Introduction
Sundance Selects
4
Amy
A24
5
The Hunting Ground
Radius

Best Documentary Feature - Major Threats

Best Documentary Feature - Possibilities

Best Documentary Feature - Long Shots

Best Original Song - Front Runners

1
"See You Again"
Furious 7
DJ Frank E, Charlie Puth, Wiz Khalifa, Andrew Cedar
2
"Til It Happens to You"
The Hunting Ground
Lady Gaga, Diane Warren
3
"Writing's on the Wall"
Spectre
Sam Smith, Jimmy Napes
4
"One Kind of Love"
Love & Mercy
Brian Wilson
5
"Love Me Like You Do"
Fifty Shades of Grey
Max Martin, Savan Kotecha, Ilya Salmanzadeh, Ali Payami, Tove Nilsson

Best Original Song - Major Threats

Best Original Song - Possibilities

Best Original Song - Long Shots