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India’s fast-growing digital market will power total Asia Pacific video revenue – including streaming and TV – to $154 billion by 2024, making for a 4.5 percent compound annual gain over the next five years, according to a study by research and consulting firm Media Partners Asia (MPA).
Online video revenue in the region will double over the next five years, expanding from $26 billion in 2019 to $52 billion in 2024, reflecting a 15 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Online video will contribute 33 percent of total video revenue by 2024, almost double its 18 percent contribution in 2019.
Excluding China, total Asia Pacific revenue will grow at a slower 3.7 percent CAGR to total more than $84 billion in 2024.
India is expected to record the fastest growth in the region with a projected CAGR of 8 percent, propelling total video revenue to $20 billion by 2024. TV will still enjoy a robust 6 percent CAGR over that period, although online video will have a more explosive 22 percent CAGR. Online video will account for 16 percent of total video revenue in India by 2024, up from 9 percent in 2019, indicating how affordable connectivity and a rapid growth in mobiles, smartphones and other screens will expand the market.
China’s video industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4 percent to create a $70 billion video industry by 2024. As in India, online video is also China’s growth engine. Online platforms will boost their share of video revenue from 29 percent in 2019 to 44 percent in 2024, offering a bigger challenge to traditional TV as compared to India.
Excluding China, online video will maintain a 15 percent CAGR in the region to increase revenue from $10 billion in 2019 to $21 billion by 2024. This will boost online video’s share of the video market in the region, ex-China, from 15 percent to 25 percent over the same time frame.
MPA’s analysis covers 16 Asia Pacific markets with a focus on consumer and advertiser spend, content costs and market share across key clusters.
“China remains at the forefront in online video scalability and innovation, although monetization models are starting to scale in other major markets,” explained MPA executive director Vivek Couto. He added: “The growth of broadband connectivity and digital video platforms is driving new economic value for content creators, aggregators and sports-rights owners at a global and local level, helping seed digital ecosystems.” But Couto also pointed out that “piracy and unpredictable regulation present key impediments to progress.”
Meanwhile, traditional TV will continue “on a low-growth trajectory in many markets, although under increasing pressure. In certain markets, the value erosion across legacy TV is unlikely to be replaced over the medium term, but digital video monetization will grow and margins will recover as costs recalibrate.”
In aggregate, the TV industry in the region will manage less than 1 percent CAGR from 2019 through 2024, in contrast to the online video sector growing 15 percent each year.
The report also shows that the balance between advertising and subscription revenue is changing due to shifting dynamics in China. Advertising’s share of Asia Pacific video revenue will decline to 53 percent by 2024 from 55 percent in 2019 as subscriptions scale further in China. Subscriptions, in turn, will contribute 47 percent to the pie in 2024, up from 45 percent in 2019. Ex-China, advertising’s contribution will remain constant over the five-year period, accounting for 56 percent of video revenue, with subscriptions providing a 44 percent share.
As for other markets in the region, Japan’s video industry should notch up a 1.2 percent CAGR from 2019 for $28 billion in advertising and subscription revenue by 2024. Online video is growing 10 percent year on year, offsetting declines in a large TV market. Overall, online video’s share of total video revenue will expand from 14 percent in 2019 to 22 percent in 2024, mainly driven by advertising.
In southeast Asia, video revenue should expand at a 4 percent CAGR from 2019 to reach $11 billion by 2024, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam contributing almost 65 percent. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest video market, should grow 5 percent annually to 2024, bolstered by a 24 percent CAGR in online video.
As for the more mature TV markets of Australia and New Zealand, the growth of online video subscription and advertising is driving more opportunity supporting a 5 percent industry CAGR from 2019 to create an almost $11 billion total video market by 2024. Online’s share will reach 53 percent by 2024, up from 33 percent in 2019.
Similarly, online video revenue should scale up in Korea at a 17 percent CAGR from 2019, rising rapidly off a low base amid a sharp slowdown in TV. Korea’s video industry is set for a 3 percent CAGR from 2019 to surpass $10 billion in revenue across TV and online platforms by 2024.
Given how the region is being largely powered by robust online video growth, investments in content are also shifting online. Total spend on all video content, from streaming to TV, is expected to grow at 3 percent CAGR to reach $73 billion by 2024, up from $64 billion in 2019. By contrast, online video content spend will climb faster, at a 10 percent CAGR over 2019-24 to reach $33 billion by 2024. China will extend its clear lead with $27 billion spent on online video content in 2024, followed by Japan at $1.7 billion and India at $1.4 billion.
MPA organizes the annual APOS industry conference in Bali, which runs April 23-25.
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