Feinberg Forecast: The First Look at the Race to the 90th Oscars

6:00 AM 9/25/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist offers his assessment of 13 categories.

Dunkirk Still 7 - Publicity - H 2017
Melinda Sue Gordon/Warner Bros. Pictures

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Big Sick (Amazon)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Molly's Game (STX)
    Okja (Netflix)
    I, Tonya (Neon)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Wind River (The Weinstein Co.)
    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Breathe (Bleecker Street)
    Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Columbia)
    The Current War (The Weinstein Co.)
    First They Killed My Father (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother! (Paramount)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)
    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Wonderstruck (Amazon)
    Marshall (Open Road)
    Thank You for Your Service (Universal)
    Crown Heights (Amazon)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros.)
    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Last Flag Flying (Amazon)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Hostiles

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Jordan Peele (Get Out)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
    Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    POSSIBILITES

    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Battle of the Sexes)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
    Alfonso Gomez-Rejon (The Current War)
    Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father)

    LONG SHOTS

    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)
    Dan Gilroy (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
    Stephen Frears (Victoria & Abdul)
    Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
    Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
    Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
    Andy Serkis (Breathe)
    David Gordon Green (Stronger)
    Reginald Hudlin (Marshall)
    Jason Hall (Thank You for Your Service)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Noah Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Clint Eastwood (The 15:17 to Paris)
    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) — podcast
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Scott Cooper (Hostiles)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    James Franco (Disaster Artist)
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Matt Damon (Downsizing)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Current War) — podcast
    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
    Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
    James McAvoy (Split)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Sam Elliot (The Hero)

    LONG SHOTS

    Algee Smith (Detroit)
    Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
    Nicholas Hoult (Rebel in the Rye)
    Liam Neeson (Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House)
    Jason Clarke (Mudbound)
    Jason Clarke (Chappaquiddick)
    Ali Fazal (Victoria & Abdul)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Christian Bale (Hostiles)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
    Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)

    LONG SHOTS

    Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled) — podcast
    Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
    Lily Collins (To the Bone)
    Sareum Srey Moch (First They Killed My Father)
    Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Glenn Close (The Wife)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast
    Will Poulter (Detroit)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Okja)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    Garrett Hedlund (Mudbound)
    Michael Shannon (The Current War) — podcast
    Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    John Lithgow (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Kevin Spacey (Rebel in the Rye)
    Anthony Mackie (Detroit)
    Javier Bardem (Mother!)
    Kevin Hart (The Upside)
    Christoph Waltz (Downsizing)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
    Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
    Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying)
    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
    Claire Foy (Breathe) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
    Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)

    LONG SHOTS

    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
    Katherine Waterston (The Current War)
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
    Elizabeth Marvel (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    MAJOR THREATS

    War for the Planet of the Apes (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)
    The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    My Cousin Rachel (Roger Michell)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)
    Rebel in the Rye (Danny Strong)

    LONG SHOTS

    Thank You for Your Service (Jason Hall)
    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
    (Matt Greenhalgh)
    Lady Macbeth (Alice Birch)
    Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)
    Chappaquiddick (Taylor Allen & Andrew Logan)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The 15:17 to Paris (Dorothy Blyskal)
    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Hampton Fancher & Michael Green)
    Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan)
    Murder on the Orient Express (Michael Green)
    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)
    Thank You for Your Service (Jason Hall)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)
    Okja (Joon-ho Bong & Jon Ronson)
    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)
    I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    The Current War (Michael Mitnick)
    Novitiate (Margaret Betts)
    Happy End (Michael Haneke)

    LONG SHOTS

    Breathe (William Nicholson)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)
    The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Yorgos Lanthimos)
    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    Baby Driver (Edgar Wright)
    Marshall (Jacob Koskoff & Michael Koskoff)
    Menashe (Alex Lipschultz, Musa Syeed & Joshua Z. Weinstein)
    Crown Heights (Matt Ruskin)
    Suburbicon (George Clooney, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen & Grant Heslov)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)
    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Hostiles (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Ferdinand (Fox)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    Captain Underpants (Fox)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Leap! (The Weinstein Co.)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
    Blazing Samurai (Open Road)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    The Star (Sony)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road)
    The Emoji Movie (Sony)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate)
    Spark (Open Road)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Animal Crackers

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Risk (Showtime/Neon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    City of Ghosts (Amazon)
    Cries from Syria (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    The Final Year (HBO)
    Dina (The Orchard)
    One of Us (Netflix)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)
    Jane (National Geographic)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Long Strange Trip (Amazon)
    Trophy (The Orchard)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Apple)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Voyeur (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    If You're Not in the Obit, Eat Breakfast (HBO)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    Bang: The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond - With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton (Netflix)
    Served Like a Girl (ES)
    Gaga: Five Foot Two (Netflix)
    Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: A Bad Boy Story (Apple)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)
    Love Means Zero (TBD)
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (TBD)
    Bobby Jene (TBD)
    Nowhere to Hide (TBD)
    Wait for Your Laugh (TBD)
    God Knows Where I Am (Juno Films)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Germany (In the Fade)
    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Sweden (The Square)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Chile (Fantastic Woman)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Austria (Happy End)
    Poland (Spoor)
    Italy (A Ciambra)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Jaeil Jung)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sufjan Stevens)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)
    The Current War (Volker Bertelmann & Dustin O'Halloran)
    Jane (Philip Glass)
    The Breadwinner (Jeff Danna & Mychael Danna)
    Wonder (Marcelo Zarvos)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Daniel Pemberton)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Johann Johannsson, Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer)
    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Common & Andra Day; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Linda Perry; written by Pat Benatar Perry, Neil Giraldo & Pat Benatar (Served Like a Girl)
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)