Feinberg Forecast: The State of the Race in the Middle of the New York Film Festival

5:00 AM 10/2/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist offers his assessment of 14 categories (now including best cinematography).

The Florida Project - H 2017
Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Big Sick (Amazon)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Molly's Game (STX)
    I, Tonya (Neon)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Okja (Netflix)
    Wind River (The Weinstein Co.)
    Breathe (Bleecker Street)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)
    First They Killed My Father (Netflix)
    Mother! (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix) NEW
    Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Columbia)
    The Current War (The Weinstein Co.)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Last Flag Flying (Amazon) NEW
    Wonderstruck (Amazon)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros.)
    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Hostiles

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Jordan Peele (Get Out)
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)

    POSSIBILITES

    Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Battle of the Sexes)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
    Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
    Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father)

    LONG SHOTS

    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)
    Taylor Sheridan (Wind River)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
    Stephen Frears (Victoria & Abdul)
    Noah Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
    Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
    Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Clint Eastwood (The 15:17 to Paris)
    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) — podcast
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Scott Cooper (Hostiles)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    James Franco (Disaster Artist)
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Matt Damon (Downsizing)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Current War) — podcast
    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)
    Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
    Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Sam Elliot (The Hero)
    James McAvoy (Split) NEW
    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Jason Clarke (Mudbound)
    Jason Clarke (Chappaquiddick)
    Daniel Kaluya (Get Out)
    Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying) NEW
    Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
    Nicholas Hoult (Rebel in the Rye)
    Algee Smith (Detroit)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Christian Bale (Hostiles)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
    Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
    Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)

    LONG SHOTS

    Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled) — podcast
    Cynthia Nixon (A Quiet Passion) NEW
    Lily Collins (To the Bone)
    Sareum Srey Moch (First They Killed My Father)
    Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)) NEW
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast
    Will Poulter (Detroit)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Okja)
    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)

    LONG SHOTS

    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Michael Shannon (The Current War) — podcast
    Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying) NEW
    Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) — podcast
    John Lithgow (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Garrett Hedlund (Mudbound)
    Kevin Spacey (Rebel in the Rye)
    Christoph Waltz (Downsizing)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)
    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
    Claire Foy (Breathe) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
    Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)

    LONG SHOTS

    Tiffany Hadish (Girls Trip)
    Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
    Elizabeth Marvel (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)) NEW
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    MAJOR THREATS

    War for the Planet of the Apes (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan) NEW
    My Cousin Rachel (Roger Michell)
    Rebel in the Rye (Danny Strong)
    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)

    LONG SHOTS

    Thank You for Your Service (Jason Hall)
    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
    (Matt Greenhalgh)
    Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)
    Chappaquiddick (Taylor Allen & Andrew Logan)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The 15:17 to Paris (Dorothy Blyskal)
    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Hampton Fancher & Michael Green)
    Murder on the Orient Express (Michael Green)
    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)
    Okja (Joon-ho Bong & Jon Ronson)
    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    The Current War (Michael Mitnick)
    Novitiate (Margaret Betts)
    Happy End (Michael Haneke)
    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)

    LONG SHOTS

    Breathe (William Nicholson)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)
    The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Yorgos Lanthimos)
    Baby Driver (Edgar Wright)
    Marshall (Jacob Koskoff & Michael Koskoff)
    Menashe (Alex Lipschultz, Musa Syeed & Joshua Z. Weinstein)
    Crown Heights (Matt Ruskin)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)
    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Hostiles (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
    Captain Underpants (Fox)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Leap! (The Weinstein Co.)
    Blazing Samurai (Open Road)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    The Star (Sony)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road)
    The Emoji Movie (Sony)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate)
    Spark (Open Road)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Ferdinand (Fox)

     

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Animal Crackers

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Risk (Showtime/Neon)
    City of Ghosts (Amazon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    The Final Year (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Cries from Syria (HBO)
    Dina (The Orchard)
    One of Us (Netflix)
    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Jane (National Geographic)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group) NEW
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)
    The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (Neon) NEW
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Long Strange Trip (Amazon)
    Trophy (The Orchard)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Apple)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Voyeur (Netflix)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    If You're Not in the Obit, Eat Breakfast (HBO)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    Bang: The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond - With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton (Netflix)
    Served Like a Girl (ES)
    Gaga: Five Foot Two (Netflix)
    California Typewriter (Gravitas Ventures) NEW
    Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: A Bad Boy Story (Apple)
    Love Means Zero (TBD)
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (TBD)
    Bobby Jene (TBD)
    Nowhere to Hide (TBD)
    Wait for Your Laugh (TBD)
    God Knows Where I Am (Juno Films)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Germany (In the Fade)
    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Sweden (The Square)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Chile (Fantastic Woman)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Austria (Happy End)
    Poland (Spoor)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Italy (A Ciambra) NEW
    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
    Atomic Blonde (Jonathan Sela)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Detroit (Barry Ackroyd)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Darius Khondji)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)

    LONG SHOTS

    First They Killed My Father (Anthony Dod Mantle)
    Lady Bird
    (Sam Levy)
    Battle of the Sexes (Linus Sandgren)
    Mudbound
    (Rachel Morrison)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
    Suburbicon (Robert Elswit)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The 15:17 to Paris (Tom Stern)
    All the Money in the World (Dariusz Wolski)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)
    Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Hostiles x (x)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Jaeil Jung)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)
    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Current War (Volker Bertelmann & Dustin O'Halloran)
    Jane (Philip Glass)
    The Breadwinner (Jeff Danna & Mychael Danna)
    Wonder (Marcelo Zarvos)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Daniel Pemberton)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Johann Johannsson, Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer)
    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Common & Andra Day; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "There’s Something Special" — performed by Pharrell Williams; written by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 3)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Pat Benatar; written by Pat Benetar Perry & Neil Giraldo (Served Like a Girl)
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)