Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Standings As the Race Heads Into November

5:30 AM 11/1/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg offers his latest read of 15 key categories.

MOLLY'S GAME - behind the scenes -Jessica Chastain and Director Aaron Sorkin -H 2017
Courtesy of STXfilms

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Get Out (Universal)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Big Sick (Amazon)
    Molly's Game (STX)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Battle of the Sexes
    (Fox Searchlight)
    I, Tonya (Neon)
    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Wonderstruck
    (Amazon)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Breathe (Bleecker Street)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)
    Good Time (A24)
    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    Mother! (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)
    Okja (Netflix)
    First They Killed My Father (Netflix)
    Wind River (The Weinstein Co.)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Hostiles (Entertainment Studios)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)

    POSSIBILITES

    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
    Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Battle of the Sexes)
    Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father)
    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel)
    Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
    Taylor Sheridan (Wind River)
    Stephen Frears (Victoria & Abdul)
    Noah Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
    Scott Cooper (Hostiles)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) — podcast
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast

     

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    James Franco (Disaster Artist)
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Christian Bale (Hostiles)
    Matt Damon (Downsizing)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)
    Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)

    LONG SHOTS

    Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
    Sam Elliot (The Hero)
    James McAvoy (Split)
    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Kate Winslet (
    Wonder Wheel) — podcast
    Brooklynn Prince (
    The Florida Project) — podcast
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
    Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
    Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled) — podcast
    Lily Collins (To the Bone)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya) NEW
    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast
    Will Poulter (Detroit)

    LONG SHOTS

    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (Maudie)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Okja)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
    Claire Foy (Breathe) — podcast
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)
    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

    LONG SHOTS

    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
    Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)
    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)
    War for the Planet of the Apes
    (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)
    The Beguiled
    (Sofia Coppola)
    Last Flag Flying
    (Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan)
    My Cousin Rachel (Roger Michell)

    LONG SHOTS

    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
    Rebel in the Rye (Danny Strong)
    Thank You for Your Service (Jason Hall)
    Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
    Darkest Hour
    (Anthony McCarten)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)
    Okja (Joon-ho Bong & Jon Ronson)
    Novitiate (Margaret Betts)
    Happy End (Michael Haneke)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Hostiles
    (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)
    Breathe
    (William Nicholson)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)
    Marshall (Jacob Koskoff & Michael Koskoff)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)
    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
    Captain Underpants (Fox)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Leap! (The Weinstein Co.)
    Blazing Samurai (Open Road)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    The Star (Sony)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road)
    The Emoji Movie (Sony)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate)
    Spark (Open Road)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Risk (Neon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    Jane (Abramorama)
    City of Ghosts (Amazon)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    The Final Year (Magnolia)
    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Cries from Syria (HBO)
    Dina (The Orchard)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Voyeur (Netflix)
    Strong Island (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    One of Us (Netflix)
    Oklahoma City (American Experience Films) NEW
    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)
    The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (Neon)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Whose Streets? (Magnolia)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)

    LONG SHOTS

    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    Get Me Roger Stone (Netflix)
    Trophy (The Orchard)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Abramorama)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    Bang: The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    Served Like a Girl (Entertainment Studios)
    Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond - With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton (Netflix)
    California Typewriter (Gravitas Ventures)
    Gaga: Five Foot Two (Netflix)
    Al Di Qua (TBD) NEW
    God Knows Where I Am (BOND360) NEW
    A Gray State (First Run Features) NEW

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Germany (In the Fade)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Sweden (The Square)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Chile (Fantastic Woman)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Austria (Happy End)
    Poland (Spoor)
    Lebanon (The Insult) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Italy (A Ciambra)
    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Wonderstruck (Amazon)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Netflix)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)
    Mother! (Paramount)
    Breathe (Bleecker Street)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mudbound (Netflix)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    Call Me By Your Name
    (Sony Classics)
    First They Killed My Father
    (Netflix)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Detroit (Barry Ackroyd)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    The Florida Project
    (Alexis Zabe)
    Mother!
    (Matthew Libatique)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
    Okja
    (Darius Khondji)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hostiles (Masanobu Takayanagi)
    Atomic Blonde (Jonathan Sela)
    First They Killed My Father (Anthony Dod Mantle)
    Battle of the Sexes (Linus Sandgren)
    Mudbound
    (Rachel Morrison)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Dariusz Wolski)
    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Jaeil Jung)
    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast
    Good Time (Daniel Lopatin)
    The Breadwinner
    (Jeff Danna & Mychael Danna)
    Wonder (Marcelo Zarvos)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Daniel Pemberton)
    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Common & Andra Day; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Jump" — performed by Cynthia Erivo; written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson, & Laura Karpman (Step)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "There’s Something Special" — performed by Pharrell Williams; written by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 3)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Pat Benatar; written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry (Served Like a Girl)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "If I Dare" performed by Sara Bareilles; written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell (Battle of the Sexes) NEW
    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — performed by Elvis Costello; written by Elvis Mitchell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) NEW
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "Home" — performed by Nick Jonas; written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter (Ferdinand) NEW
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Mighty River" — performed by Mary J. Blige; written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson (Mudbound) NEW
    "Tell Me How Long" — performed by Kristen Bell; written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger (Chasing Coral) NEW