Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Standings As the Race Comes Home to Hollywood

6:45 AM 11/8/2017

by Scott Feinberg

In the wake of BAFTA's Britannia Awards and the Hollywood Film Awards, and just ahead of the AFI Fest in Hollywood, THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg offers his latest read of 16 key categories — now including best film editing!

Lady Bird Still 3 - Publicity - Embed 2017
Courtesy of A24

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Get Out (Universal)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Molly's Game (STX)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Big Sick (Amazon)

    MAJOR THREATS

    I, Tonya (Neon)
    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Downsizing
    (Paramount)
    Battle of the Sexes
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Wonderstruck
    (Amazon)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Disney)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)
    Good Time (A24)
    Mother! (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wind River (The Weinstein Co.)
    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Amazon)
    Okja (Netflix)
    Hostiles (Entertainment Studios)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix)
    Breathe (Bleecker Street)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)

    POSSIBILITES

    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)
    Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
    Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Battle of the Sexes)

    LONG SHOTS

    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Noah Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Taylor Sheridan (Wind River)
    Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel)
    Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
    Stephen Frears (Victoria & Abdul)
    Scott Cooper (Hostiles)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Matt Damon (Downsizing)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)
    Christian Bale (Hostiles)
    Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

    LONG SHOTS

    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
    Sam Elliot (The Hero)
    James McAvoy (Split)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
    Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)
    Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
    Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled) — podcast
    Lily Collins (To the Bone)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

    POSSIBILITIES

    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast
    Will Poulter (Detroit)

    LONG SHOTS

    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (Maudie)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Okja)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)
    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
    Claire Foy (Breathe) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
    Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)
    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)
    The Beguiled
    (Sofia Coppola)
    Last Flag Flying
    (Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan)

    LONG SHOTS

    Thank You for Your Service (Jason Hall)
    Rebel in the Rye (Danny Strong)
    Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)
    The Lost City of Z (James Gray)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

    MAJOR THREATS

    I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
    The
    Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)
    Darkest Hour
    (Anthony McCarten)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Woody Allen)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)
    Okja (Joon-ho Bong & Jon Ronson)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    Happy End (Michael Haneke)
    Novitiate (Margaret Betts)
    Hostiles
    (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)
    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Captain Underpants (Fox)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Star (Sony)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
    Blazing Samurai (Open Road)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    Cinderella the Cat

    LONG SHOTS

    The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road)
    Leap! (The Weinstein Co.)
    My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate)
    Spark (Open Road)
    The Emoji Movie (Sony)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Jane (Abramorama)
    Risk (Neon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    The Final Year (Magnolia)
    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Cries from Syria (HBO)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Dina (The Orchard)
    Voyeur (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    One of Us
    (Netflix)
    Oklahoma City (American Experience Films)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Atomic Homefront (HBO) NEW
    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)
    The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (Neon)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Whose Streets? (Magnolia)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)

    LONG SHOTS

    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    Served Like a Girl (Entertainment Studios)
    Get Me Roger Stone (Netflix)
    Trophy (The Orchard)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Abramorama)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    Bang: The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond - With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton (Netflix)
    California Typewriter (Gravitas Ventures)
    Gaga: Five Foot Two (Netflix)
    Al Di Qua (TBD)
    God Knows Where I Am (BOND360)
    A Gray State (First Run Features

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Germany (In the Fade)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Sweden (The Square)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Chile (Fantastic Woman)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Austria (Happy End)
    Poland (Spoor)
    Lebanon (The Insult)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Italy (A Ciambra)
    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
    Detroit (William Goldenberg)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
    Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    Lady Bird (Nick Houy)
    Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
    Downsizing (Kevin Tent)
    Call Me By Your Name (Walter Fasano)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)
    Beauty and the Beast (Virginia Katz)
    Battle of the Sexes (Pamela Martin)
    Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)

    LONG SHOTS

    Logan (Michael McCusker)
    Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 (Fred Raskin & Craig Wood)
    Okja (Yang Jinmo)
    The Florida Project
    (Sean Baker)
    Good Time (Ronald Bronstein)
    Wonderstruck (Affonso Goncalves)
    First They Killed My Father (Patricia Rommel)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Joe Hutshing)
    Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)
    The Post (Michael Kahn)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Downsizing (Paramount)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Wonderstruck (Amazon)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mother! (Paramount)
    Okja
    (Netflix)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Breathe (Bleecker Street)
    Mudbound
    (Netflix)
    Call Me By Your Name
    (Sony Classics)
    Stronger
    (Roadside Attractions)
    First They Killed My Father (Netflix)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Detroit (Barry Ackroyd)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
    The Florida Project
    (Alexis Zabe)
    Mother!
    (Matthew Libatique)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
    Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Okja
    (Darius Khondji)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hostiles (Masanobu Takayanagi)
    Atomic Blonde (Jonathan Sela)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    First They Killed My Father (Anthony Dod Mantle)
    Battle of the Sexes (Linus Sandgren)
    Mudbound
    (Rachel Morrison)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Okja (Jaeil Jung)
    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast
    Good Time (Daniel Lopatin)
    The Breadwinner
    (Jeff Danna & Mychael Danna)
    Wonder (Marcelo Zarvos)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Common & Andra Day; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Jump" — performed by Cynthia Erivo; written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson, & Laura Karpman (Step)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "There’s Something Special" — performed by Pharrell Williams; written by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 3)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Pat Benatar; written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry (Served Like a Girl)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "If I Dare" performed by Sara Bareilles; written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell (Battle of the Sexes)
    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — performed by Elvis Costello; written by Elvis Mitchell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "Home" — performed by Nick Jonas; written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter (Ferdinand)
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Mighty River" — performed by Mary J. Blige; written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson (Mudbound)
    "Tell Me How Long" — performed by Kristen Bell; written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger (Chasing Coral)