Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Standings as 'The Post' Joins the Race

8:00 AM 11/21/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist anticipates a slew of nominations for Steven Spielberg's timely new drama, which stars Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep.

The Post Still 1 -Publicity-H 2017
Courtesy of Niko Tavernise/Twentieth Century Fox

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Post (Fox) NEW
    Get Out (Universal)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Fox Searchlight)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Big Sick (Lionsgate)

    MAJOR THREATS

    I, Tonya (Neon/30WEST)
    Molly's Game (STX)
    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Downsizing
    (Paramount)
    Battle of the Sexes
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Mother! (Paramount)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Wind River (Acacia)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Disney)
    Wonder Woman
    (Warner Bros.)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Okja (Netflix)
    Wonderstruck (Amazon)
    Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Amazon)
    Hostiles (Entertainment Studios)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast NEW
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)

    POSSIBILITES

    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)
    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)

    LONG SHOTS

    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
    Taylor Sheridan (Wind River)
    Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
    Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
    Scott Cooper (Hostiles)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Tom Hanks (The Post) NEW
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Matt Damon (Downsizing)
    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)
    Christian Bale (Hostiles)
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
    Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast NEW
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast
    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
    Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (Maudie)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast NEW
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast
    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

    LONG SHOTS

    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Patrick Stewart (Logan)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

    LONG SHOTS

    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)
    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    Claire Foy (Breathe) — podcast

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    POSSIBILITIES

    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
    Thank You for Your Service
    (Jason Hall)
    The Lost City of Z (James Gray)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer) NEW
    I, Tonya
    (Steven Rogers)
    The
    Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)
    Darkest Hour
    (Anthony McCarten)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Woody Allen)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    Okja (Joon-ho Bong & Jon Ronson)
    Hostiles
    (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)
    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Girl without Hands (GKIDS) NEW
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films) NEW
    Captain Underpants (Fox)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Star (Sony)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cinderella the Cat
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    The Emoji Movie
    (Sony)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Jane (Abramorama)
    Risk (Neon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Cries from Syria (HBO)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Dina (The Orchard)
    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Final Year (Magnolia)
    Voyeur (Netflix)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    Joshua: Teenager vs. Superpower (Netflix) NEW
    One of Us
    (Netflix)
    Oklahoma City (American Experience Films)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
    Atomic Homefront (HBO)
    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson (Netflix)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Whose Streets? (Magnolia)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Earth: One Amazing Day (BBC Worldwide North America) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (Neon)
    Served Like a Girl (Entertainment Studios)
    Get Me Roger Stone (Netflix)
    Trophy (The Orchard)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Abramorama)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    BANG! The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    California Typewriter (Gravitas Ventures)
    Gaga: Five Foot Two (Netflix)
    God Knows Where I Am (BOND360)
    Al Di Qua (TBD)
    A Gray State (First Run Features)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Sweden (The Square)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Lebanon (The Insult)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Chile (Fantastic Woman)
    Germany (In the Fade)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Norway (Thelma)
    Poland (Spoor)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Austria (Happy End)
    Italy (A Ciambra)
    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
    Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) NEW
    Baby Driver
    (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
    Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)
    Lady Bird (Nick Houy)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
    The Florida Project
    (Sean Baker)
    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
    Downsizing (Kevin Tent)
    Call Me By Your Name (Walter Fasano)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)

    LONG SHOTS

    Beauty and the Beast (Virginia Katz)
    Battle of the Sexes (Pamela Martin)
    Logan
    (Michael McCusker)
    Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 (Fred Raskin & Craig Wood)
    Okja (Yang Jinmo)
    Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Joe Hutshing)
    Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    The Post (Fox) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Wonderstruck
    (Amazon)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mother! (Paramount)
    Okja
    (Netflix)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Breathe (Bleecker Street)
    Mudbound
    (Netflix)
    Call Me By Your Name
    (Sony Classics)
    Stronger
    (Roadside Attractions)
    First They Killed My Father (Netflix)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Detroit
    (Barry Ackroyd)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Ben Davis)
    The Florida Project
    (Alexis Zabe)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Vittorio Storaro)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)

    LONG SHOTS

    Okja (Darius Khondji)
    Hostiles
    (Masanobu Takayanagi)
    Atomic Blonde (Jonathan Sela)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    First They Killed My Father (Anthony Dod Mantle)
    Mudbound
    (Rachel Morrison)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    The Post (John Williams) NEW
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    Blade Runner 2049
    (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)

    POSSIBILITIES

    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    Okja
    (Jaeil Jung)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)
    Jane
    (Philip Glass) — podcast

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Andra Day & Common; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Remember Me" — written by Bobby Lopez and Kristen Anderson Lopez; performed by Miguel and Natalia Lafourcade (Coco)
    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Jump" — performed by Cynthia Erivo; written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson, & Laura Karpman (Step)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "There’s Something Special" — performed by Pharrell Williams; written by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 3)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Pat Benatar; written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry (Served Like a Girl)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "If I Dare" performed by Sara Bareilles; written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell (Battle of the Sexes)
    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — performed by Elvis Costello; written by Elvis Mitchell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "Home" — performed by Nick Jonas; written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter (Ferdinand)
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Mighty River" — performed by Mary J. Blige; written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson (Mudbound)
    "Tell Me How Long" — performed by Kristen Bell; written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger (Chasing Coral)