Feinberg Forecast: A Wide-Open Race Enters December

3:52 PM 12/1/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist surveys the landscape with only 'All the Money in the World,' 'The Greatest Showman' and 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' still to come.

Get Out Still 2 - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of Universal Studios

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDB.com.

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Universal)
    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Post (Fox)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Fox Searchlight)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
    I, Tonya
    (Neon/30WEST)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Molly's Game (STX)
    Downsizing
    (Paramount)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder (Lionsgate) NEW
    Wind River
    (Acacia)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Mother! (Paramount)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    War for the Planet of the Apes
    (Fox)
    Detroit (Annapurna)
    Okja (Netflix)
    Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    The Greatest Showman
    (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)

    POSSIBILITES

    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) NEW
    Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
    Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
    Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
    Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) NEW
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)

    MAJOR THREATS

    James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Matt Damon (Downsizing)
    Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
    Jacob Tremblay (Wonder) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)
    Christian Bale (Hostiles)
    Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
    Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
    Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread) NEW
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)

    STILL TO COME (Alphabetical)

    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Bradley Whitford (Get Out) NEW
    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
    John Boyega (Detroit) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
    Idris Elba (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) — podcast
    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Bill Skarsgard (It) NEW

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

     

    Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Catherine Keener (Get Out) NEW
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    Julia Roberts (Wonder) NEW
    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
    Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
    Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
    Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)
    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    POSSIBILITIES

    First They Killed My Father (Angelina Jolie & Loung Ung)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Mark Bomback & Matt Reeves)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
    Thank You for Your Service
    (Jason Hall)
    The Lost City of Z (James Gray)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    The Big Sick
    (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)
    I, Tonya
    (Steven Rogers)
    The
    Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)
    Darkest Hour
    (Anthony McCarten)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Woody Allen)
    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother! (Darren Aronofsky)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Battle of the Sexes (Simon Beaufoy)
    Hostiles
    (Scott Cooper & Donald E. Stewart)
    The Square (Ruben Ostlund)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Jenny Bicks & Bill Condon)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Girl without Hands (GKIDS) NEW
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films) NEW
    Captain Underpants (Fox)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Star (Sony)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cinderella the Cat
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    The Emoji Movie
    (Sony)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jane (Abramorama)
    Icarus (Netflix)
    Risk (Neon)
    Step (Fox Searchlight)
    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Kedi (Oscilloscope)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Cries from Syria (HBO)
    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Dina (The Orchard)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Final Year (Magnolia)
    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    Voyeur (Netflix)
    The Work (The Orchard)
    Whose Streets? (Magnolia)
    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    Joshua: Teenager vs. Superpower (Netflix)
    One of Us
    (Netflix)
    Oklahoma City (American Experience Films)
    Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Netflix)
    Arthur Miller: Writer (HBO)
    Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS (National Geographic)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
    Atomic Homefront (HBO)
    The Force (Kino Lorber)

    LONG SHOTS

    I Called Him Morgan (Submarine Deluxe)
    The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (Neon)
    Served Like a Girl (Entertainment Studios)
    Get Me Roger Stone (Netflix)
    The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
    (Netflix)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Earth: One Amazing Day (BBC Worldwide North America)
    Trophy
    (The Orchard)
    Whitney, Can I Be Me? (Showtime)
    Clive Davis: The Soundtrack of Our Lives (Abramorama)
    I Am Another You (FilmRise)
    Cuba and the Cameraman (Netflix)
    Finding Oscar (FilmRise)
    Citizen Jane: Battle for the City (Sundance Selects)
    BANG! The Bert Berns Story (Abramorama)
    California Typewriter
    (Gravitas Ventures)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Sweden (The Square)
    France (BPM (Beats Per Minute))
    Chile (A Fantastic Woman)
    Lebanon (The Insult)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Russia (Loveless)
    Germany (In the Fade)
    Cambodia (First They Killed My Father)
    Norway (Thelma)
    Poland (Spoor)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Austria (Happy End)
    Italy (A Ciambra)
    Switzerland (The Divine Order)
    Thailand (By the Time It Gets Dark)
    Nepal (White Sun)

    LONG SHOTS

    Finland (Tom of Finland)
    Hong Kong (Mad World)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Korea (A Taxi Driver)
    Ukraine (Black Level)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    Lady Bird
    (Nick Houy)
    Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
    Call Me By Your Name (Walter Fasano)
    Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)
    Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
    Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
    The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)

    LONG SHOTS

    Beauty and the Beast (Virginia Katz)
    Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 (Fred Raskin & Craig Wood)
    Okja (Yang Jinmo)
    Downsizing (Kevin Tent)
    Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)
    Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Joe Hutshing)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    The Post (Fox)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Wonderstruck
    (Amazon)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mother! (Paramount)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Okja
    (Netflix)
    Wonder Wheel (Amazon)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)

    LONG SHOTS

    Baby Driver (Sony)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Breathe
    (Bleecker Street)
    Mudbound
    (Netflix)
    Call Me By Your Name
    (Sony Classics)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    Detroit
    (Barry Ackroyd)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Ben Davis)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
    The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Vittorio Storaro)

    LONG SHOTS

    Atomic Blonde (Jonathan Sela)
    First They Killed My Father (Anthony Dod Mantle)
    Okja
    (Darius Khondji)
    Hostiles
    (Masanobu Takayanagi)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
    Victoria and Abdul (Thomas Newman)
    Detroit
    (James Newton Howard)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mudbound (Tamar-kali)
    Okja
    (Jaeil Jung)
    Breathe (Nitin Sawhney)
    Jane
    (Philip Glass) — podcast

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — performed by Andra Day & Common; written by Diane Warren (Marshall) — podcast (Common) & podcast (Warren)
    "Evermore" — performed by Dan Stevens; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik; written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift (Fifty Shades Darker)
    "It Ain't Fair" — performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal; written by The Roots (Detroit)
    "Jump" — performed by Cynthia Erivo; written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson, & Laura Karpman (Step)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Come Alive" — performed by Hugh Jackman; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "Remember Me" — written by Bobby Lopez and Kristen Anderson Lopez; performed by Miguel and Natalia Lafourcade (Coco)
    "Prayers for This World" — performed by Cher; written by Diane Warren (Cries from Syria) — podcast (Warren)
    "Truth to Power" — performed by One Republic; written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    "This Is Me" — performed by Keala Settle; written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)
    "There’s Something Special" — performed by Pharrell Williams; written by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 3)
    "To Be Human" — performed by Sia; written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels (Wonder Woman)
    "The Promise" — performed by Chris Cornell; written by Chris Cornell (The Promise)
    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — performed by Pat Benatar; written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry (Served Like a Girl)
    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — performed by Emma Watson; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)
    "Days in the Sun" — performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al; written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice (Beauty and the Beast)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "If I Dare" performed by Sara Bareilles; written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell (Battle of the Sexes)
    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — performed by Elvis Costello; written by Elvis Mitchell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    "The Star" — performed by Mariah Carey; written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman (The Star)
    "Home" — performed by Nick Jonas; written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter (Ferdinand)
    "Hold the Light" — performed by Dierks Bentley; written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese (Only the Brave)
    "The Mystery of Love" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Visions of Gideon" — performed by Sufjan Stevens; written by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
    "Mighty River" — performed by Mary J. Blige; written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson (Mudbound)
    "Tell Me How Long" — performed by Kristen Bell; written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger (Chasing Coral)