Feinberg Forecast: One Final Snapshot of the Oscar Race Before 2018

9:36 AM 12/29/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist updates his assessment of 20 of the 24 categories.

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The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDB.com.

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Universal)
    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    The Post (Fox)
    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
    I, Tonya
    (Neon/30WEST)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    Molly's Game (STX)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
    All the Money in the World
    (Sony)
    Downsizing (Paramount)
    Wonder (Lionsgate)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wind River (Acacia)
    Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Disney)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Mother!
    (Paramount)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

    POSSIBILITES

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Alexander Payne (Downsizing)

    LONG SHOTS

    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
    Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
    Tom Hanks (The Post)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast
    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
    Jacob Tremblay (Wonder)
    Christian Bale (Hostiles)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast
    Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
    Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Patrick Stewart (Logan)
    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julia Roberts (Wonder)
    Catherine Keener (Get Out)
    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

    LONG SHOTS

    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
    Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)
    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    The Big Sick
    (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
    The
    Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    I, Tonya
    (Steven Rogers)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
    Phantom Thread
    (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    Downsizing
    (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)
    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)
    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
    The Girl Without Hands (GKIDS)
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)
    Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Captain Underpants (Fox)
    The Star (Sony)
    The Boss Baby
    (Fox)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cinderella the Cat (TBD)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony)
    The Emoji Movie
    (Sony)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Icarus (Netflix)
    Jane (Abramorama)
    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
    Strong Island (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    LA 92 (National Geographic)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
    One of Us (Netflix)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)

    POSSIBILITIES

    An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
    Chasing Coral (Netflix)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Unrest (Shella Films)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Sweden (The Square)
    Lebanon (The Insult)
    Chile (A Fantastic Woman)
    Russia (Loveless)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Germany (In the Fade)
    South Africa (The Wound)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    Senegal (Felicite)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
    Call Me By Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    Detroit
    (Barry Ackroyd)
    I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
    The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Atomic Blonde
    (Jonathan Sela)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)
    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)
    Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
    Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
    Call Me By Your Name (Walter Fasano)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)
    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
    Lady Bird (Nick Houy)
    Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)
    The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
    Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)

    LONG SHOTS

    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)
    The Greatest Showman (Joe Hutshing)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Virginia Katz)
    Downsizing (Kevin Tent)
    Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)
    Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Darkest Hour
    Wonder
    Bright

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
    I, Tonya
    Ghost in the Shell

    Victoria and Abdul

     

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)
    Phantom Thread
    (Jonny Greenwood)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    Victoria and Abdul (Thomas Newman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Detroit (James Newton Howard)
    The Greatest Showman
    (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

    LONG SHOTS

    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    Jane
    (Philip Glass) — podcast

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
    Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
    Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

    "Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Dan Stevens
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

    "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
    Performed by Keala Settle
    Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

    "It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
    Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
    Written by The Roots

    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — (Fifty Shades Darker)
    Performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik
    Written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me By Your Name)
    Performed by Sufjan Stevens
    Written by Sufjan Stevens

    "Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
    Performed by Mary J. Blige
    Written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson

    "Remember Me" — (Coco)
    Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
    Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade

    "The Star" — (The Star)
    Performed by Mariah Carey
    Written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman

    "Jump" — (Step)
    Performed by Cynthia Erivo
    Written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson, & Laura Karpman

    "Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    Performed by One Republic
    Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

    "Prayers for This World" — (Cries from Syria)
    Performed by Cher
    Written by Diane Warren  — podcast (Warren)

    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Performed by Elvis Costello
    Written by Elvis Mitchell

    "There’s Something Special" — (Despicable Me 3)
    Performed & written by Pharrell Williams

    "To Be Human" — (Wonder Woman)
    Performed by Sia
    Written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels

    POSSIBILITIES

    "The Promise" — (The Promise)
    Performed by Chris Cornell
    Written by Chris Cornell

    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — (Served Like a Girl)
    Performed by Pat Benatar
    Written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry

    "If I Dare" — (Battle of the Sexes)
    Performed by Sara Bareilles
    Written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell

    "Home" — (Ferdinand)
    Performed by Nick Jonas
    Written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter

    "Hold the Light" — (Only the Brave)
    Performed by Dierks Bentley
    Written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese

    "Visions of Gideon" — (Call Me By Your Name)
    Performed by Sufjan Stevens
    Written by Sufjan Stevens

    "Tell Me How Long" — (Chasing Coral)
    Performed by Kristen Bell
    Written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger

    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Emma Watson
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

    "Days in the Sun" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Blade Runner 2049
    Beauty and the Beast
    Murder on the Orient Express

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck
    The Post

    Phantom Thread
    Downsizing
    Wonder Woman
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Get Out
    Darkest Hour
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Mother!

    Okja

    Wonder Wheel

    LONG SHOTS

    Baby Driver
    War for the Planet of the Apes
    The Greatest Showman
    Mudbound
    Call Me By Your Name

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    War for the Planet of the Apes
    The Shape of Water

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Okja
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
    Kong: Skull Island
    Alien: Covenant
    Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dear Basketball
    Lou
    In a Heartbeat

    Revolting Rhymes
    Negative Space

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Cradle
    Life Smartphone
    Garden Party
    Fox and the Whale
    Lost Property Office

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Heroin(e)
    Edith+Eddie
    Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets
    116 Cameras
    Knife Skills

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Ten Meter Tower
    Ram Dass, Going Home
    Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
    Traffic Stop
    Alone