THR's awards columnist updates his assessment of 21 of the 24 categories with balloting set to begin Friday.

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

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• Best Picture

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Get Out (Universal)
  Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
  The Post (Fox)
  The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
  Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
  Lady Bird (A24)
  The Florida Project (A24)
  The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
  I, Tonya (Neon/30WEST)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Mudbound (Netflix)
  Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
  Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
  Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Molly's Game (STX)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
  The Greatest Showman (Fox)
  Wonder (Lionsgate)

  LONG SHOTS

  All the Money in the World (Sony)
  Downsizing (Paramount)
  Wind River (Acacia)
  War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
  Mother! (Paramount)

• Best Director

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
  Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
  Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
  Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
  Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
  Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
  Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
  Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
  Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)

  LONG SHOTS

  Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
  Dee Rees (Mudbound)
  Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)

• Best Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
  Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
  Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
  James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
  Tom Hanks (The Post)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
  Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) — podcast
  Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
  Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast
  Jeremy Renner (Wind River)

  LONG SHOTS

  Christian Bale (Hostiles)
  Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
• Best Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
  Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
  Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
  Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
  Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
  Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
  Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
  Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
  Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast

  LONG SHOTS

  Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
  Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
  Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
  Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
  Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
  Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
  Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
  Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
  Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
  Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)

  LONG SHOTS

  Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
  Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
  Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

• Best Supporting Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
  Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
  Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
  Hong Chau (Downsizing)
  Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
  Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
  Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Catherine Keener (Get Out)
  Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

  LONG SHOTS

  Julia Roberts (Wonder)
  Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
  Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
  Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
  Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
  The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
  Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
  All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
  Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)

  LONG SHOTS

  Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)
  Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)

• Best Original Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
  Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
  The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
  The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
  

  MAJOR THREATS

  The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
  The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
  Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
  I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
  Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
  Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
  Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)

  LONG SHOTS

  The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
  Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)
  Detroit (Mark Boal)
  Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)

• Best Animated Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Coco (Pixar)
  The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
  Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
  Cars 3 (Pixar)
  The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
  The Girl Without Hands (GKIDS)
  Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films)
  My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
  Captain Underpants (Fox)

  LONG SHOTS

  The Star (Sony)
  The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
  Cinderella the Cat (TBD)
• Best Documentary Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Icarus (Netflix)
  Jane (Abramorama)
  Strong Island (Netflix)
  Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
  One of Us (Netflix)

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
  City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
  LA 92 (National Geographic)
  Human Flow (Amazon)
  Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
  An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
  Chasing Coral (Netflix)
  Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
  Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
  Unrest (Shella Films)

• Best Foreign Language Film

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Israel (Foxtrot)
  Sweden (The Square)
  Lebanon (The Insult)
  Chile (A Fantastic Woman)
  Russia (Loveless)

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Germany (In the Fade)
  Hungary (On Body and Soul)
  South Africa (The Wound)
  Senegal (Felicite)

• Best Cinematography

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
  The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
  Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
  The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
  Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
  Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
  Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
  Detroit (Barry Ackroyd)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)

  POSSIBILITIES

  I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)
  Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
  Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
  The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
  The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)

  LONG SHOTS

  Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
  Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
  Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
  War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
  Baby Driver (Bill Pope)
• Best Costume Design

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
  The Post (Ann Roth)
  Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
  Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
  I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Dunkirk (Jeffrey Kurland)
  Wonderstruck (Sandy Powell)
  Mudbound (Michael T. Boyd)
  Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)
  Lady Bird (April Napier)
  Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
  The Beguiled (Stacey Battat)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Kaplan)
  Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)
  Battle of the Sexes (Mary Zophres)
  The Greatest Showman (Ellen Miojnick)
  Molly's Game (Susan Lyall)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
  Personal Shopper (Jürgen Doering)
  Wonder Wheel (Suzy Benzinger)

  LONG SHOTS

  The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
  Marshall (Ruth E. Carter)
  Call Me by Your Name (Giulia Piersanti)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Renee April)
  Okja (Catherine George)
  Breathe (Charlotte Walter)
  Their Finest (Charlotte Walter)
  Detroit (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)

• Best Film Editing

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
  The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
  The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
  Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)
  I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
  Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
  Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
  Lady Bird (Nick Houy)

  POSSIBILITIES

  War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)
  Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
  Call Me by Your Name (Walter Fasano)
  Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)
  Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)

  LONG SHOTS

  Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
  The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
  Beauty and the Beast (Virginia Katz)
  Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)
  Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Wonder
  Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  I, Tonya

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Darkest Hour
  Bright
  Ghost in the Shell
  Victoria & Abdul
• Best Original Score

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
  The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
  The Post (John Williams)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
  Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)
  Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
  Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)

  POSSIBILITIES

  The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
  Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
  War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
  Detroit (James Newton Howard)

  LONG SHOTS

  Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
  Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
  Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast

• Best Original Song

  FRONTRUNNERS

  "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
  Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
  Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

  "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
  Performed by Keala Settle
  Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

  "Remember Me" — (Coco)
  Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
  Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade

  "It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
  Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
  Written by The Roots

  "Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
  Performed by Dan Stevens
  Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

  MAJOR THREATS

  "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — (Fifty Shades Darker)
  Performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik
  Written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift

  "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
  Performed by Sufjan Stevens
  Written by Sufjan Stevens

  "Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
  Performed by Mary J. Blige
  Written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson

  "The Star" — (The Star)
  Performed by Mariah Carey
  Written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman

  "Jump" — (Step)
  Performed by Cynthia Erivo
  Written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson & Laura Karpman

  "Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
  Performed by One Republic
  Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

  "Prayers for This World" — (Cries from Syria)
  Performed by Cher
  Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

  "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
  Performed by Elvis Costello
  Written by Elvis Mitchell

  "There’s Something Special" — (Despicable Me 3)
  Performed & written by Pharrell Williams

  "To Be Human" — (Wonder Woman)
  Performed by Sia
  Written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels

  POSSIBILITIES

  "The Promise" — (The Promise)
  Performed by Chris Cornell
  Written by Chris Cornell

  "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — (Served Like a Girl)
  Performed by Pat Benatar
  Written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry

  "If I Dare" — (Battle of the Sexes)
  Performed by Sara Bareilles
  Written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell

  "Home" — (Ferdinand)
  Performed by Nick Jonas
  Written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter

  "Hold the Light" — (Only the Brave)
  Performed by Dierks Bentley
  Written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese

  "Visions of Gideon" — (Call Me By Your Name)
  Performed by Sufjan Stevens
  Written by Sufjan Stevens

  "Tell Me How Long" — (Chasing Coral)
  Performed by Kristen Bell
  Written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger

  "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — (Beauty and the Beast)
  Performed by Emma Watson
  Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

  "Days in the Sun" — (Beauty and the Beast)
  Performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al
  Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

• Best Production Design

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Dunkirk
  The Shape of Water
  Blade Runner 2049
  Beauty and the Beast
  Murder on the Orient Express

  MAJOR THREATS

  Wonderstruck
  The Post
  Phantom Thread
  Downsizing
  Wonder Woman
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi

  POSSIBILITIES

  Get Out
  Darkest Hour
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  Mother!
  Okja
  Wonder Wheel

  LONG SHOTS

  Baby Driver
  War for the Planet of the Apes
  The Greatest Showman
  Mudbound
  Call Me by Your Name
• Best Visual Effects

  FRONTRUNNERS

  War for the Planet of the Apes
  The Shape of Water
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  Blade Runner 2049
  Dunkirk

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Okja
  Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
  Kong: Skull Island
  Alien: Covenant

• Best Animated Short

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Dear Basketball
  Lou
  In a Heartbeat
  Revolting Rhymes
  Negative Space

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Cradle
  Life Smartphone
  Garden Party
  Fox and the Whale
  Lost Property Office

• Best Documentary Short

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Heroin(e)
  Edith+Eddie
  116 Cameras
  Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets
  Knife Skills

  MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

  Ten Meter Tower
  Ram Dass, Going Home
  Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  Traffic Stop
  Alone