Feinberg Forecast: One Last Check-In Before Oscar Nomination Voting
THR's awards columnist updates his assessment of 21 of the 24 categories with balloting set to begin Friday.

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.
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Best Picture
'The Post'Courtesy of Niko Tavernise/Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS
Get Out (Universal)
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
The Post (Fox)
The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
Lady Bird (A24)
The Florida Project (A24)
The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
I, Tonya (Neon/30WEST)MAJOR THREATS
Mudbound (Netflix)
Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)POSSIBILITIES
Molly's Game (STX)
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
The Greatest Showman (Fox)
Wonder (Lionsgate)LONG SHOTS
All the Money in the World (Sony)
Downsizing (Paramount)
Wind River (Acacia)
War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
Mother! (Paramount) -
Best Director
Guillermo del ToroCourtesy of Twentieth Century Fox Film CorporationFRONTRUNNERS
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)POSSIBILITIES
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)LONG SHOTS
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
Dee Rees (Mudbound)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game) -
Best Actor
Jake GyllenhaalScott GarfieldFRONTRUNNERS
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
Tom Hanks (The Post)MAJOR THREATS
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) — podcast
Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)POSSIBILITIES
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast
Jeremy Renner (Wind River)LONG SHOTS
Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman) -
Best Actress
Margot RobbieCourtesy of NEON and 30WESTFRONTRUNNERS
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)MAJOR THREATS
Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast
Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)POSSIBILITIES
Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcastLONG SHOTS
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actor
Willem DafoeCourtesy of A24FRONTRUNNERS
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)MAJOR THREATS
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)POSSIBILITIES
Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)LONG SHOTS
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) -
Best Supporting Actress
Laurie MetcalfCourtesy of A24FRONTRUNNERS
Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)MAJOR THREATS
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)POSSIBILITIES
Catherine Keener (Get Out)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)LONG SHOTS
Julia Roberts (Wonder)
Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
'The Disaster Artist'Courtesy of A24FRONTRUNNERS
Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)MAJOR THREATS
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)POSSIBILITIES
Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)LONG SHOTS
Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)
Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos) -
Best Original Screenplay
'The Big Sick'Courtesy of Nicole RivelliFRONTRUNNERS
Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
MAJOR THREATS
The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)POSSIBILITIES
Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)LONG SHOTS
The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)
Detroit (Mark Boal)
Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich) -
Best Animated Feature
'Coco'Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios Motion PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Coco (Pixar)
The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
Cars 3 (Pixar)
The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)MAJOR THREATS
Despicable Me 3 (Universal)
The Girl Without Hands (GKIDS)
Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films)
My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
Captain Underpants (Fox)LONG SHOTS
The Star (Sony)
The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
Cinderella the Cat (TBD) -
Best Documentary Feature
'One of Us'Courtesy of NetflixFRONTRUNNERS
Icarus (Netflix)
Jane (Abramorama)
Strong Island (Netflix)
Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)
One of Us (Netflix)MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
LA 92 (National Geographic)
Human Flow (Amazon)
Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
An Inconvenient Sequel (Paramount)
Chasing Coral (Netflix)
Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
Unrest (Shella Films) -
Best Foreign Language Film
'The Insult'Courtesy of Venice International Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Israel (Foxtrot)
Sweden (The Square)
Lebanon (The Insult)
Chile (A Fantastic Woman)
Russia (Loveless)MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
Germany (In the Fade)
Hungary (On Body and Soul)
South Africa (The Wound)
Senegal (Felicite) -
Best Cinematography
'Detroit'Courtesy of Annapurna PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
The Post (Janusz Kaminski)MAJOR THREATS
Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
Detroit (Barry Ackroyd)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)POSSIBILITIES
I, Tonya (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)
Beauty and the Beast (Tobias A. Schliessler)
Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)LONG SHOTS
Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
Baby Driver (Bill Pope) -
Best Costume Design
'Personal Shopper'Courtesy of Toronto International Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
The Post (Ann Roth)
Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)MAJOR THREATS
Dunkirk (Jeffrey Kurland)
Wonderstruck (Sandy Powell)
Mudbound (Michael T. Boyd)
Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)
Lady Bird (April Napier)
Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
The Beguiled (Stacey Battat)POSSIBILITIES
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Kaplan)
Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)
Battle of the Sexes (Mary Zophres)
The Greatest Showman (Ellen Miojnick)
Molly's Game (Susan Lyall)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
Personal Shopper (Jürgen Doering)
Wonder Wheel (Suzy Benzinger)LONG SHOTS
The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
Marshall (Ruth E. Carter)
Call Me by Your Name (Giulia Piersanti)
Blade Runner 2049 (Renee April)
Okja (Catherine George)
Breathe (Charlotte Walter)
Their Finest (Charlotte Walter)
Detroit (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck) -
Best Film Editing
'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'Johanna KorshFRONTRUNNERS
Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)MAJOR THREATS
Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)
I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
Lady Bird (Nick Houy)POSSIBILITIES
War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)
Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
Call Me by Your Name (Walter Fasano)
Wonder Woman (Martin Walsh)
Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)LONG SHOTS
Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
Beauty and the Beast (Virginia Katz)
Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)
Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor) -
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
'Ghost in the Shell'Courtesy of Paramount.FRONTRUNNERS
Wonder
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
I, TonyaMAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
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Best Original Score
'The Last Jedi'Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios Motion PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
The Post (John Williams)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)MAJOR THREATS
Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)
Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)POSSIBILITIES
The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
Detroit (James Newton Howard)LONG SHOTS
Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast -
Best Original Song
'The Greatest Showman'Courtesy of Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS
"Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)"This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
Performed by Keala Settle
Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul"Remember Me" — (Coco)
Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade"It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
Written by The Roots"Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
Performed by Dan Stevens
Written by Alan Menken & Tim RiceMAJOR THREATS
"I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — (Fifty Shades Darker)
Performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik
Written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift"The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
Performed by Sufjan Stevens
Written by Sufjan Stevens"Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
Performed by Mary J. Blige
Written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson"The Star" — (The Star)
Performed by Mariah Carey
Written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman"Jump" — (Step)
Performed by Cynthia Erivo
Written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson & Laura Karpman"Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
Performed by One Republic
Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett"Prayers for This World" — (Cries from Syria)
Performed by Cher
Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)"You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
Performed by Elvis Costello
Written by Elvis Mitchell"There’s Something Special" — (Despicable Me 3)
Performed & written by Pharrell Williams"To Be Human" — (Wonder Woman)
Performed by Sia
Written by Florence Welch & Rick NowelsPOSSIBILITIES
"The Promise" — (The Promise)
Performed by Chris Cornell
Written by Chris Cornell"Dancing Through the Wreckage" — (Served Like a Girl)
Performed by Pat Benatar
Written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry"If I Dare" — (Battle of the Sexes)
Performed by Sara Bareilles
Written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell"Home" — (Ferdinand)
Performed by Nick Jonas
Written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter"Hold the Light" — (Only the Brave)
Performed by Dierks Bentley
Written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese"Visions of Gideon" — (Call Me By Your Name)
Performed by Sufjan Stevens
Written by Sufjan Stevens"Tell Me How Long" — (Chasing Coral)
Performed by Kristen Bell
Written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger"How Does a Moment Last Forever" — (Beauty and the Beast)
Performed by Emma Watson
Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice"Days in the Sun" — (Beauty and the Beast)
Performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al
Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice -
Best Production Design
'Get Out'Courtesy of Universal PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient ExpressMAJOR THREATS
Wonderstruck
The Post
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wonder Woman
Star Wars: The Last JediPOSSIBILITIES
Get Out
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mother!
Okja
Wonder WheelLONG SHOTS
Baby Driver
War for the Planet of the Apes
The Greatest Showman
Mudbound
Call Me by Your Name -
Best Visual Effects
'Kong: Skull Island'Courtesy of Warner Bros. PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
War for the Planet of the Apes
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Blade Runner 2049
DunkirkMAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
Okja
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Kong: Skull Island
Alien: Covenant -
Best Animated Short
'In a Heartbeat'ScreengrabFRONTRUNNERS
Dear Basketball
Lou
In a Heartbeat
Revolting Rhymes
Negative SpaceMAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
Cradle
Life Smartphone
Garden Party
Fox and the Whale
Lost Property Office -
Best Documentary Short
'Ten Meter Tower'Courtesy of SundanceFRONTRUNNERS
Heroin(e)
Edith+Eddie
116 Cameras
Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets
Knife SkillsMAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)
Ten Meter Tower
Ram Dass, Going Home
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Traffic Stop
Alone