Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Projections After the Golden Globes

4:28 PM 1/8/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist updates his read of 21 of the 24 categories.

Lady Bird (2017) - Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf - Publicity-H 2017
Courtesy of A24

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Universal)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    The Shape of Water
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    The Post (Fox)
    Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
    I, Tonya
    (Neon/30WEST)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mudbound (Netflix)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Molly's Game (STX)
    Blade Runner 2049
    (Warner Bros.)
    The Greatest Showman (Fox)
    Wonder
    (Lionsgate)

    LONG SHOTS

    All the Money in the World (Sony)
    Downsizing (Paramount)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)
    Mother!
    (Paramount)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
    Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

    LONG SHOTS

    Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
    Dee Rees (Mudbound)
    Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
    James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Tom Hanks (The Post)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
    Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
    Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
    Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
    Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

    LONG SHOTS

    Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) — podcast
    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
    Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) — podcast
    Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie
    Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
    Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
    Bob Odenkirk (The Post) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
    Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    Catherine Keener (Get Out)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
    Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

    LONG SHOTS

    Julia Roberts (Wonder)
    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
    Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Matt Greenhalgh)
    All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
    Wonderstruck (Brian Selznick)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)
    Beauty and the Beast (Stephen Chbosky & Evan Spiliotopoulos)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
    The
    Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
    Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
    I, Tonya
    (Steven Rogers)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Downsizing (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)
    Darkest Hour
    (Anthony McCarten)
    Phantom Thread
    (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    Wind River (Taylor Sheridan)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Noah Baumbach)
    Wonder Wheel
    (Woody Allen)
    Detroit (Mark Boal)
    Coco (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina & Lee Unkrich)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Coco (Pixar)
    The Breadwinner (GKIDS)
    Loving Vincent (Good Deed Entertainment)
    Cars 3 (Pixar)
    The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Boss Baby (Fox)
    Despicable Me 3
    (Universal)
    The Girl Without Hands (GKIDS)
    Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ethel & Ernest (Dada Films)
    My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (GKIDS)
    Captain Underpants
    (Fox)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Star (Sony)
    The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)
    Cinderella the Cat (TBD)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jane (Abramorama)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
    Icarus (Netflix)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
    One of Us (Netflix)
    LA 92
    (National Geographic)
    An Inconvenient Sequel
     (Paramount)
    Human Flow (Amazon)
    Last Men in Aleppo (Grasshopper Film)
    Chasing Coral
    (Netflix)
    Ex-Libris: New York Public Library (Zipporah)
    Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PBS)
    Unrest (Shella Films)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Sweden (The Square)
    Lebanon (The Insult)
    Chile (A Fantastic Woman)
    Russia (Loveless)

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Germany (In the Fade)
    Hungary (On Body and Soul)
    South Africa (The Wound)
    Senegal (Felicite)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
    Lady Bird (Sam Levy)
    Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
    Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
    Detroit
    (Barry Ackroyd)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Steve Yedlin)
    I, Tonya
    (Nicolas Karakatsanis)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Ben Davis)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Tobias A. Schliessler)
    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Greatest Showman (Seamus McGarvey)
    Wonder Woman (Matthew Jensen)
    Downsizing (Phedon Papamichael)
    Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Seresin)
    Baby Driver
    (Bill Pope)

  • Best Costume Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
    The Post (Ann Roth)
    Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
    Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
    I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Dunkirk (Jeffrey Kurland)
    Wonderstruck
    (Sandy Powell)
    Mudbound (Michael T. Boyd)
    Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)
    Lady Bird (April Napier)
    Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
    The Beguiled (Stacey Battat)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    (Michael Kaplan)
    Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)
    Battle of the Sexes (Mary Zophres)
    The Greatest Showman (Ellen Miojnick)
    Molly's Game
    (Susan Lyall)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (Jon Gregory)

    LONG SHOTS

    Personal Shopper (Jürgen Doering)
    Wonder Wheel (Suzy Benzinger)
    Marshall (Ruth E. Carter)
    Call Me by Your Name (Giulia Piersanti)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Renee April)
    Okja (Catherine George)
    Detroit (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    The Post (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
    Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    (Bob Ducsay)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
    Darkest Hour (Valerio Bonelli)
    Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lady Bird (Nick Houy)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy & Stan Salfas)
    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
    Call Me by Your Name (Walter Fasano)
    Wonder Woman
    (Martin Walsh)

    LONG SHOTS

    Detroit (William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon)
    Mother! (Andrew Weisblum)
    Beauty and the Beast
    (Virginia Katz)
    Mudbound (Mako Kamitsuna)
    Phantom Thread (Dylan Tichenor)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Wonder
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

    Ghost in the Shell

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Darkest Hour
    I, Tonya
    Bright
    Victoria & Abdul

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    The Post (John Williams)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)
    Phantom Thread
    (Jonny Greenwood)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Benjamin Wallfisch & Hans Zimmer)
    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Greatest Showman (John Debney, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
    Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
    Detroit
    (James Newton Howard)

    LONG SHOTS

    Molly's Game (Daniel Pemberton)
    Battle of the Sexes (Nicholas Britell)
    Jane
    (Philip Glass) — podcast

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
    Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
    Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

    "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
    Performed by Keala Settle
    Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

    "Remember Me" — (Coco)
    Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
    Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade

    "It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
    Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
    Written by The Roots

    "Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Dan Stevens
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

    MAJOR THREATS

    "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" — (Fifty Shades Darker)
    Performed by Taylor Swift & Zayn Malik
    Written by Jack Antonoff, Sam Drew & Taylor Swift

    "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
    Performed by Sufjan Stevens
    Written by Sufjan Stevens

    "Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
    Performed by Mary J. Blige
    Written by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson

    "The Star" — (The Star)
    Performed by Mariah Carey
    Written by Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman

    "Jump" — (Step)
    Performed by Cynthia Erivo
    Written by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson & Laura Karpman

    "Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    Performed by One Republic
    Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

    "Prayers for This World" — (Cries from Syria)
    Performed by Cher
    Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

    "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" — (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
    Performed by Elvis Costello
    Written by Elvis Mitchell

    "There’s Something Special" — (Despicable Me 3)
    Performed & written by Pharrell Williams

    "To Be Human" — (Wonder Woman)
    Performed by Sia
    Written by Florence Welch & Rick Nowels

    POSSIBILITIES

    "The Promise" — (The Promise)
    Performed by Chris Cornell
    Written by Chris Cornell

    "Dancing Through the Wreckage" — (Served Like a Girl)
    Performed by Pat Benatar
    Written by Pat Benatar, Neil Giraldo & Linda Perry

    "If I Dare" — (Battle of the Sexes)
    Performed by Sara Bareilles
    Written by Sara Bareilles & Nicholas Britell

    "Home" — (Ferdinand)
    Performed by Nick Jonas
    Written by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter

    "Hold the Light" — (Only the Brave)
    Performed by Dierks Bentley
    Written by Sean Carey, Dierks Bentley, Jon Randall & Joseph Trapanese

    "Visions of Gideon" — (Call Me By Your Name)
    Performed by Sufjan Stevens
    Written by Sufjan Stevens

    "Tell Me How Long" — (Chasing Coral)
    Performed by Kristen Bell
    Written by Dan Romer & Terry Geiger

    "How Does a Moment Last Forever" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Emma Watson
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

    "Days in the Sun" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Emma Watson, Audra McDonald, et al
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Blade Runner 2049
    Beauty and the Beast
    Murder on the Orient Express

    MAJOR THREATS

    Darkest Hour
    The Post

    Phantom Thread
    Wonderstruck
    Downsizing

    Wonder Woman
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Get Out
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Mother!

    Okja

    Wonder Wheel
    Logan
    Lady Bird

    LONG SHOTS

    Baby Driver
    War for the Planet of the Apes
    The Greatest Showman
    Mudbound
    Call Me by Your Name

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    War for the Planet of the Apes
    The Shape of Water

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Okja
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

    Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
    Kong: Skull Island

    Alien: Covenant

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dear Basketball
    Lou
    In a Heartbeat

    Revolting Rhymes
    Negative Space

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Cradle
    Life Smartphone
    Garden Party
    Fox and the Whale
    Lost Property Office

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Heroin(e)
    Edith+Eddie

    116 Cameras
    Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets
    Knife Skills

    MAJOR THREATS (Remainder of Shortlist)

    Ten Meter Tower
    Ram Dass, Going Home
    Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
    Traffic Stop
    Alone