The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 23. at 5:22 a.m. PT/8:22 a.m. ET.

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

Click here to sign up to receive email alerts whenever a new Feinberg Forecast posts!

• Best Picture

  

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
  Lady Bird (A24)
  Get Out (Universal)
  Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
  Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
  The Florida Project (A24)
  Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
  The Post (Fox)
  I, Tonya (Neon/30WEST)

  ALTERNATE

  The Big Sick (Lionsgate)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Molly's Game (STX)

• Best Director

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
  Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
  Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
  Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
  Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

  ALTERNATE

  Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)

• Best Actor

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
  Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
  James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
  Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
  Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

  ALTERNATE

  Tom Hanks (The Post) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast
• Best Actress

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
  Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
  Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
  Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Diane Kruger (In the Fade)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
  Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
  Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

  ALTERNATE

  Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)

• Best Supporting Actress

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
  Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
  Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
  Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) — podcast
  Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

  ALTERNATE

  Hong Chau (Downsizing)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
  Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
  The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
  Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
  Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

  ALTERNATE

  Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)

• Best Original Screenplay

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
  Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
  Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast
  The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
  The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

  ALTERNATE

  The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)

• Best Animated Feature

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Coco (Darla K. Anderson, Lee Unkrich)
  The Breadwinner (Angelina Jolie, Anthony Leo, Tomm Moore, Andrew Rosen, Nora Twomey)
  Loving Vincent (Sean Bobbitt, Dorota Kobiela, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman)
  The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito)
  Despicable Me 3 (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin, Eric Guillon, Janet Healy, Chris Meledandri)

  ALTERNATE

  The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (Damien Brunner, Didier Brunner, Patrick Imbert, Benajmin Renner, Vincent Tavier)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Cars 3 (Brian Fee, Kevin Reher)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  In This Corner of the World (Sunao Katabuchi, Taro Maki, Masao Maruyama)
• Best Documentary Feature

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Jane (Abramorama)
  Strong Island (Netflix)
  Icarus (Netflix) — podcast (Bryan Fogel)
  City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
  Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)

  ALTERNATE

  Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (Paramount) — podcast (Al Gore)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)

• Best Foreign Language Film

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Germany (In the Fade)
  Israel (Foxtrot)
  Sweden (The Square)
  Russia (Loveless)
  Chile (A Fantastic Woman)

  ALTERNATE

  Lebanon (The Insult)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Hungary (On Body and Soul)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Spoor (Poland)

• Best Cinematography

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
  Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
  The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
  Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
  Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)

  ALTERNATE

  The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
• Best Costume Design

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
  Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
  Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
  Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
  The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)

  ALTERNATE

  The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)

• Best Film Editing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
  The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
  Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
  I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

  ALTERNATE

  Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Wonder (Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten)
  I, Tonya (Deborah Lamia Denaver, Adruitha Lee)
  Darkest Hour (David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji)

  ALTERNATE

  Bright (Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Allen Nelson)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Ghost in the Shell (Deborah LaMia Danaver, Jane O'Kane, Sarah Rubana)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  The Shape of Water (Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan, Jordan Samuel)
• Best Original Score

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
  Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
  Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
  The Post (John Williams)

  ALTERNATE

  Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast

• Best Original Song

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
  Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
  Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

  "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
  Performed by Keala Settle
  Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

  "Remember Me" — (Coco)
  Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
  Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade

  "Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
  Performed by Dan Stevens
  Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

  "It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
  Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
  Written by The Roots

  ALTERNATE

  "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
  Performed by Sufjan Stevens
  Written by Sufjan Stevens

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  "Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
  Performed by One Republic
  Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  "The Promise" — (The Promise)
  Performed by Chris Cornell
  Written by Chris Cornell

• Best Production Design

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)
  Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola)
  Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
  Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis)

  ALTERNATE

  The Post (Rick Carter)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Murder on the Orient Express (Jim Clay)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Wonderstruck (Mark Friedberg)
• Best Sound Editing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Dunkirk (Alex Gibson, Richard King)
  The Shape of Water (Nathan Robitaille)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Theo Green, Mark Mangini)
  Baby Driver (Julian Slater)

  ALTERNATE

  Wonder Woman (James H. Mather)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  War for the Planet of the Apes (William Files, Douglas Murray)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Alien: Covenant (Michael Fentum, Oliver Tarney)

• Best Sound Mixing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten)
  The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Mac Ruth)
  Wonder Woman (Chris Burdon, Gilbert Lake, Chris Munro)

  ALTERNATE

  Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  The Greatest Showman (Tod A. Maitland)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Good Time (Evan Mangiamele)

• Best Visual Effects

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  War for the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Joel Whist)
  Blade Runner 2049 (Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson)
  Dunkirk (Paul Corbould, Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley)
  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Chris Corbould, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlon)
  Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams)

  ALTERNATE

  The Shape of Water (Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Shane Mahan, Kevin Scott)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Kong: Skull Island (Scott Benza, Jill Brooks, Robert Weaver, Jeff White)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Thor: Ragnarok (Kyle McCulloch, Jake Morrison, Bruce Steinheimer, Chad Wiebe)
• Best Animated Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Lou (Dave Mullins, Dana Murray)
  Dear Basketball (Kobe Bryant, Glen Keane)
  In a Heartbeat (Esteban Bravo, Beth David)
  Revolting Rhymes (Jan Lachauer, Jakob Schuh)
  Negative Space (Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata)

  ALTERNATE

  Fox and the Whale (Robin Joseph)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Lost Property Office (Daniel Agdag)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  World of Tomorrow Episode Two: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts (Don Hertzfeldt)

• Best Documentary Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Heroin(e) (Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon)
  Edith+Eddie (Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright)
  Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets (Mari Bakke Riise, Jørgen Lorentzen)
  116 Cameras   (Davina Pardo)
  Knife Skills (Thomas Lennon)

  ALTERNATE

  Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Frank Stiefel)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Ram Dass, Going Home (Derek Peck)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Long Shot (Jacob LaMendola)

• Best Live Action Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Icebox (Camille Cornuel, Daniel Sawka)
  The Eleven O'Clock (Derin Seale)
  The Silent Child (Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton)
  Witnesses (David Koch)
  My Nephew Emmett (Kevin Wilson, Jr.)

  ALTERNATE

  DeKalb Elementary (Reed Van Dyk)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Rise of a Star (James Bort, Boris Mendza)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  And So We Put Goldfish in the Pool (Makoto Nagahisa)