Feinberg Forecast: Final Projections Ahead of Nominations for 90th Oscars
The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 23. at 5:22 a.m. PT/8:22 a.m. ET.
The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.
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Best Picture
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
Lady Bird (A24)
Get Out (Universal)
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
The Florida Project (A24)
Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
The Post (Fox)
I, Tonya (Neon/30WEST)ALTERNATE
The Big Sick (Lionsgate)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Molly's Game (STX)
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Best Director
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)ALTERNATE
Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
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Best Actor
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)ALTERNATE
Tom Hanks (The Post) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Actress
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcastALTERNATE
Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast
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Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)ALTERNATE
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
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Best Supporting Actress
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) — podcast
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)ALTERNATE
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)
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Best Adapted Screenplay
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)ALTERNATE
Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)
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Best Original Screenplay
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)ALTERNATE
The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
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Best Animated Feature
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Coco (Darla K. Anderson, Lee Unkrich)
The Breadwinner (Angelina Jolie, Anthony Leo, Tomm Moore, Andrew Rosen, Nora Twomey)
Loving Vincent (Sean Bobbitt, Dorota Kobiela, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman)
The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito)
Despicable Me 3 (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin, Eric Guillon, Janet Healy, Chris Meledandri)ALTERNATE
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (Damien Brunner, Didier Brunner, Patrick Imbert, Benajmin Renner, Vincent Tavier)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Cars 3 (Brian Fee, Kevin Reher)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
In This Corner of the World (Sunao Katabuchi, Taro Maki, Masao Maruyama)
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Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Jane (Abramorama)
Strong Island (Netflix)
Icarus (Netflix) — podcast (Bryan Fogel)
City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)ALTERNATE
Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (Paramount) — podcast (Al Gore)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)
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Best Foreign Language Film
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Germany (In the Fade)
Israel (Foxtrot)
Sweden (The Square)
Russia (Loveless)
Chile (A Fantastic Woman)ALTERNATE
Lebanon (The Insult)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Hungary (On Body and Soul)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Spoor (Poland)
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Best Cinematography
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)ALTERNATE
The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Mother! (Matthew Libatique)
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Best Costume Design
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)ALTERNATE
The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)
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Best Film Editing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)ALTERNATE
Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Wonder (Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten)
I, Tonya (Deborah Lamia Denaver, Adruitha Lee)
Darkest Hour (David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji)ALTERNATE
Bright (Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Allen Nelson)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Ghost in the Shell (Deborah LaMia Danaver, Jane O'Kane, Sarah Rubana)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
The Shape of Water (Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan, Jordan Samuel)
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Best Original Score
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
The Post (John Williams)ALTERNATE
Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Original Song
PROJECTED NOMINEES
"Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)"This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
Performed by Keala Settle
Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul"Remember Me" — (Coco)
Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade"Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
Performed by Dan Stevens
Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice"It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
Written by The RootsALTERNATE
"The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
Performed by Sufjan Stevens
Written by Sufjan StevensPOTENTIAL SURPRISE
"Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
Performed by One Republic
Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone BurnettSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
"The Promise" — (The Promise)
Performed by Chris Cornell
Written by Chris Cornell -
Best Production Design
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)
Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola)
Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis)ALTERNATE
The Post (Rick Carter)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Murder on the Orient Express (Jim Clay)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Wonderstruck (Mark Friedberg)
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Best Sound Editing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Dunkirk (Alex Gibson, Richard King)
The Shape of Water (Nathan Robitaille)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood)
Blade Runner 2049 (Theo Green, Mark Mangini)
Baby Driver (Julian Slater)ALTERNATE
Wonder Woman (James H. Mather)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
War for the Planet of the Apes (William Files, Douglas Murray)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Alien: Covenant (Michael Fentum, Oliver Tarney)
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Best Sound Mixing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten)
The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson)
Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Mac Ruth)
Wonder Woman (Chris Burdon, Gilbert Lake, Chris Munro)ALTERNATE
Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
The Greatest Showman (Tod A. Maitland)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Good Time (Evan Mangiamele)
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Best Visual Effects
PROJECTED NOMINEES
War for the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Joel Whist)
Blade Runner 2049 (Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson)
Dunkirk (Paul Corbould, Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Chris Corbould, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlon)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams)ALTERNATE
The Shape of Water (Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Shane Mahan, Kevin Scott)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Kong: Skull Island (Scott Benza, Jill Brooks, Robert Weaver, Jeff White)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Thor: Ragnarok (Kyle McCulloch, Jake Morrison, Bruce Steinheimer, Chad Wiebe)
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Best Animated Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Lou (Dave Mullins, Dana Murray)
Dear Basketball (Kobe Bryant, Glen Keane)
In a Heartbeat (Esteban Bravo, Beth David)
Revolting Rhymes (Jan Lachauer, Jakob Schuh)
Negative Space (Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata)ALTERNATE
Fox and the Whale (Robin Joseph)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Lost Property Office (Daniel Agdag)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
World of Tomorrow Episode Two: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts (Don Hertzfeldt)
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Best Documentary Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Heroin(e) (Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon)
Edith+Eddie (Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright)
Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets (Mari Bakke Riise, Jørgen Lorentzen)
116 Cameras (Davina Pardo)
Knife Skills (Thomas Lennon)ALTERNATE
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Frank Stiefel)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Ram Dass, Going Home (Derek Peck)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Long Shot (Jacob LaMendola)
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Best Live Action Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Icebox (Camille Cornuel, Daniel Sawka)
The Eleven O'Clock (Derin Seale)
The Silent Child (Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton)
Witnesses (David Koch)
My Nephew Emmett (Kevin Wilson, Jr.)ALTERNATE
DeKalb Elementary (Reed Van Dyk)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Rise of a Star (James Bort, Boris Mendza)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
And So We Put Goldfish in the Pool (Makoto Nagahisa)