Feinberg Forecast: Final Projections Ahead of Nominations for 90th Oscars

9:25 AM 1/19/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 23. at 5:22 a.m. PT/8:22 a.m. ET.

The Florida Project Still_ - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of A24

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar nominations would look if the race ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

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  • Best Picture

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
    Lady Bird (A24)
    Get Out (Universal)
    Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
    Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)
    The Florida Project (A24)
    Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
    The Post (Fox)
    I, Tonya
    (Neon/30WEST)

    ALTERNATE

    The Big Sick (Lionsgate)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Molly's Game (STX)

  • Best Director

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast
    Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
    Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast
    Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    ALTERNATE

    Sean Baker (The Florida Project) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)

  • Best Actor

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
    James Franco (The Disaster Artist) — podcast
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

    ALTERNATE

    Tom Hanks (The Post) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Robert Pattinson (Good Time) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast
    Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Diane Kruger (In the Fade)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
    Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
    Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
    Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

    ALTERNATE

    Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast
    Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) — podcast
    Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    ALTERNATE

    Hong Chau (Downsizing)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
    Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
    The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)
    Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
    Wonder Woman (Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg & Zack Snyder)

    ALTERNATE

    Victoria & Abdul (Lee Hall)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Wonder (Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
    Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast
    The Shape of Water
    (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)
    The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

    ALTERNATE

    The Post (Liz Hannah & Josh Singer)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Florida Project (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)

  • Best Animated Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Coco (Darla K. Anderson, Lee Unkrich)
    The Breadwinner (Angelina Jolie, Anthony Leo, Tomm Moore, Andrew Rosen, Nora Twomey)
    Loving Vincent (Sean Bobbitt, Dorota Kobiela, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman)
    The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito)
    Despicable Me 3 (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin, Eric Guillon, Janet Healy, Chris Meledandri)

    ALTERNATE

    The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (Damien Brunner, Didier Brunner, Patrick Imbert, Benajmin Renner, Vincent Tavier)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Cars 3 (Brian Fee, Kevin Reher)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    In This Corner of the World (Sunao Katabuchi, Taro Maki, Masao Maruyama)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jane (Abramorama)
    Strong Island (Netflix)
    Icarus (Netflix) — podcast (Bryan Fogel)
    City of Ghosts (IFC Films)
    Long Strange Trip (Abramorama)

    ALTERNATE

    Faces Places (Cohen Media Group)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (Paramount) — podcast (Al Gore)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 (Lincoln Square)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Germany (In the Fade)
    Israel (Foxtrot)
    Sweden (The Square)
    Russia (Loveless)
    Chile (A Fantastic Woman)

    ALTERNATE

    Lebanon (The Insult)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Hungary (On Body and Soul)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Spoor (Poland)

  • Best Cinematography

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
    Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
    Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
    Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)

    ALTERNATE

    The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Wonderstruck (Ed Lachman)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Mother! (Matthew Libatique)

  • Best Costume Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
    Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
    Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
    Murder on the Orient Express
    (Alexandra Byrne)
    The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)

    ALTERNATE

    The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)

  • Best Film Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
    The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
    Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
    I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

    ALTERNATE

    Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Bob Ducsay)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Molly's Game (Alan Baumgarten, Elliot Graham & Josh Schaeffer)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Wonder (Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten)
    I, Tonya (Deborah Lamia Denaver, Adruitha Lee)
    Darkest Hour (David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji)

    ALTERNATE

    Bright (Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Allen Nelson)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ghost in the Shell (Deborah LaMia Danaver, Jane O'Kane, Sarah Rubana)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Shape of Water (Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan, Jordan Samuel)

  • Best Original Score

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
    Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
    Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
    The Post (John Williams)

    ALTERNATE

    Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Victoria & Abdul (Thomas Newman)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Jane (Philip Glass) — podcast

  • Best Original Song

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
    Performed by Andra Day & Common — podcast (Common)
    Written by Diane Warren — podcast (Warren)

    "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
    Performed by Keala Settle
    Written by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

    "Remember Me" — (Coco)
    Written by Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
    Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade

    "Evermore" — (Beauty and the Beast)
    Performed by Dan Stevens
    Written by Alan Menken & Tim Rice

    "It Ain't Fair" — (Detroit)
    Performed by The Roots, ft. Bilal
    Written by The Roots

    ALTERNATE

    "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
    Performed by Sufjan Stevens
    Written by Sufjan Stevens

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    "Truth to Power" — (An Inconvenient Sequel)
    Performed by One Republic
    Written by Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    "The Promise" — (The Promise)
    Performed by Chris Cornell
    Written by Chris Cornell

  • Best Production Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)
    Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola)
    Darkest
    Hour (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
    Dunkirk
    (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis)

    ALTERNATE

    The Post (Rick Carter)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Murder on the Orient Express (Jim Clay)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Wonderstruck (Mark Friedberg)

  • Best Sound Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Dunkirk (Alex Gibson, Richard King)
    The Shape of Water (Nathan Robitaille)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Theo Green, Mark Mangini)
    Baby Driver (Julian Slater)

    ALTERNATE

    Wonder Woman (James H. Mather)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    War for the Planet of the Apes (William Files, Douglas Murray)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Alien: Covenant (Michael Fentum, Oliver Tarney)

  • Best Sound Mixing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten)
    The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson)
    Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Mac Ruth)
    Wonder Woman (Chris Burdon, Gilbert Lake, Chris Munro)

    ALTERNATE

    Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    The Greatest Showman (Tod A. Maitland)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Good Time (Evan Mangiamele)

  • Best Visual Effects

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    War for the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Joel Whist)
    Blade Runner 2049
    (Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson)
    Dunkirk
    (Paul Corbould, Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley)
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Chris Corbould, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlon)
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
    (Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams)

    ALTERNATE

    The Shape of Water (Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Shane Mahan, Kevin Scott)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Kong: Skull Island (Scott Benza, Jill Brooks, Robert Weaver, Jeff White)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Thor: Ragnarok (Kyle McCulloch, Jake Morrison, Bruce Steinheimer, Chad Wiebe)

  • Best Animated Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Lou (Dave Mullins, Dana Murray)
    Dear Basketball
    (Kobe Bryant, Glen Keane)
    In a Heartbeat (Esteban Bravo, Beth David)
    Revolting Rhymes
    (Jan Lachauer, Jakob Schuh)
    Negative Space
    (Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata)

    ALTERNATE

    Fox and the Whale (Robin Joseph)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Lost Property Office (Daniel Agdag)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    World of Tomorrow Episode Two: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts (Don Hertzfeldt)

  • Best Documentary Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Heroin(e) (Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon)
    Edith+Eddie
    (Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright)
    Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets (Mari Bakke Riise, Jørgen Lorentzen)
    116 Cameras  (Davina Pardo)
    Knife Skills (Thomas Lennon)

    ALTERNATE

    Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Frank Stiefel)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ram Dass, Going Home (Derek Peck)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Long Shot (Jacob LaMendola)

  • Best Live Action Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Icebox (Camille Cornuel, Daniel Sawka)
    The Eleven O'Clock (Derin Seale)
    The Silent Child (Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton)
    Witnesses (David Koch)
    My Nephew Emmett (Kevin Wilson, Jr.)

    ALTERNATE

    DeKalb Elementary (Reed Van Dyk)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Rise of a Star (James Bort, Boris Mendza)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    And So We Put Goldfish in the Pool (Makoto Nagahisa)