Feinberg Forecast: First Post-Nominations Read of the Race to the 90th Oscars

12:45 PM 1/23/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THE SHAPE OF WATER - Still 2 -Telluride Film Festival - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of Telluride Film Festival

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar standings would look if voting ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from screenings), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). Please note that the companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

Below are the current rankings in order, 1 being the strongest contender. 

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  • Best Picture

    1. The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)

    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)

    3. Get Out (Universal)

    4. Lady Bird (A24)

    5. Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)

    6. Phantom Thread (Focus Features)

    7. Darkest Hour (Focus Features)

    8. Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)

    9. The Post (Fox)

  • Best Director

    1. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast

    2. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

    3. Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast

    4. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast

    5. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Actor

    1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

    2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)

    3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

    4. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

    5. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    1. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    2. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast

    3. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

    4. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast

    5. Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    2. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

    3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

    4. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    5. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast

    2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

    3. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) — podcast

    4. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

    5. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)

    2. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast

    3. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)

    4. Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)

    5. Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)

    2. Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast

    3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

    4. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)

    5. The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)

  • Best Animated Feature

    1. Coco (Darla K. Anderson & Lee Unkrich)

    2. The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath & Ramsey Ann Naito)

    3. Ferdinand (Carlos Saldanha)

    4. The Breadwinner (Anthony Leo & Nora Twomey)

    5. Loving Vincent (Dorota Kobiela, Ivan Mactaggart & Hugh Welchman)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    1. Icarus (Netflix) — podcast (Bryan Fogel)

    2. Strong Island (Joslyn Barnes & Yance Ford)

    3. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (Julie Goldman, Steve James & Mark Mitten)

    4. Last Men in Aleppo (Kareem Abeed, Feras Fayyad & Soren Steen Jespersen)

    5. Faces Places (JR, Agnes Varda & Rosalie Varda)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    1. Sweden (The Square)

    2. Lebanon (The Insult)

    3. Russia (Loveless)

    4. Chile (A Fantastic Woman)

    5. Hungary (On Body and Soul)

  • Best Cinematography

    1. The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)

    2. Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)

    3. Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)

    4. Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)

    5. Mudbound (Rachel Morrison) — podcast

  • Best Costume Design

    1. Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)

    2. Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)

    3. The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)

    4. Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)

    5. Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)

  • Best Film Editing

    1. Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)

    2. Dunkirk (Lee Smith)

    3. The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)

    4. I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

    5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    1. Wonder (Arjen Tuiten)

    2. Darkest Hour (David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick & Kazuhiro Tsuji)

    3. Victoria & Abdul (Daniel Phillips & Lou Sheppard)

  • Best Original Score

    1. The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)

    2. Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer) — podcast

    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

    4. Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)

    5. Three Billboards Outsdie Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

  • Best Original Song

    1. "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
    Music by Diane Warren, lyrics by Common & Diane Warren — podcast (Common), podcast (Warren)

    2. "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
    Music and lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

    3. "Remember Me" — (Coco)
    Music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson Lopez & Robert Lopez

    4. "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
    Music and lyrics by Sufjan Stevens

    5. "Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
    Music and lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson — podcast (Blige)

  • Best Production Design

    1The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)

    2. Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer)

    3. Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola)

    4. Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis)

    5. Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer)

  • Best Sound Editing

    1. Dunkirk (Alex Gibson & Richard King)

    2. The Shape of Water (Nelson Ferreira & Nathan Robitaille)

    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce & Matthew Wood)

    4. Blade Runner 2049 (Theo Green & Mark Mangini)

    5. Baby Driver (Julian Slater)

  • Best Sound Mixing

    1. Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten)

    2. The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern)

    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson)

    4. Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Mac Ruth)

    5. Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater)

  • Best Visual Effects

    1. War for the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Joel Whist)

    2. Blade Runner 2049 (Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer & John Nelson)

    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Chris Corbould, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland & Neal Scanlon)

    4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend & Guy Williams)

    5. Kong: Skull Island (Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus, Stephen Rosenbaum & Jeff White)

  • Best Animated Short

    1. Dear Basketball (Kobe Bryant & Glen Keane)

    2. Lou (Dave Mullins & Dana Murray)

    3Garden Party (Victor Caire & Gabriel Grapperon)

    4. Revolting Rhymes (Jan Lachauer & Jakob Schuh)

    5. Negative Space (Max Porter & Ru Kuwahata)

  • Best Documentary Short

    1. Heroin(e) (Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon)

    2. Edith+Eddie (Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright)

    3. Knife Skills (Thomas Lennon)

    4. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Frank Stiefel)

    5. Traffic Stop (Kate Davis and David Heilbroner)

  • Best Live Action Short

    1. The Eleven O'Clock (Derin Seale)

    2. The Silent Child (Chris Overton & Rachel Shenton)

    3. My Nephew Emmett (Kevin Wilson, Jr.)

    4. DeKalb Elementary (Reed Van Dyk)

    5. Watu Wote/All of Us (Katja Benrath & Tobi)