Feinberg Forecast: A Mid-Voting Read of the Oscar Race

2018 | Oscar Predictions — Courtesy of TriStar Pictures

The listings below reflect how The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Oscar standings would look if voting ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from screenings), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters). The companies listed alongside film titles are their U.S. distributors according to IMDb.com.

Below are the current rankings in order, 1 being the strongest contender.

Click here to sign up to receive email alerts whenever a new Feinberg Forecast posts!

Best Picture

Image Credit: Courtesy of Niko Tavernise/20th Century Fox

1. The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)

3. Get Out (Universal)

4. Lady Bird (A24)

5. Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)

6. Darkest Hour (Focus Features)

7. Phantom Thread (Focus Features)

8. Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics)

9. The Post (Fox)
Best Director

Image Credit: Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images

1. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) — podcast

2. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) — podcast

4. Jordan Peele (Get Out) — podcast

5. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Best Actor

Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics

1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) — podcast

3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

4. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

5. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) — podcast
Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

2. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) — podcast

3. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

4. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) — podcast

4. Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
Best Supporting Actor

Image Credit: Courtesy of Kerry Hayes/Twentieth Century Fox

1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) — podcast

2. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) — podcast

3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

4. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) — podcast

5. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Supporting Actress

Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features

1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya) — podcast

2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

3. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

4. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

5. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) — podcast
Best Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy of STX Films

1. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)

2. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)

3. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast

4. Logan (Scott Frank, Michael Green & James Mangold)

5. Mudbound (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
Best Original Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy of Universal Pictures

1. Get Out (Jordan Peele) — podcast

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)

3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

4. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) — podcast (del Toro)

5. The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani) — podcast (Nanjiani)
Best Animated Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of DreamWorks Animation

1. Coco (Darla K. Anderson & Lee Unkrich)

2. Loving Vincent (Dorota Kobiela, Ivan Mactaggart & Hugh Welchman)

3. The Breadwinner (Anthony Leo & Nora Twomey)

4. The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath & Ramsey Ann Naito)

5. Ferdinand (Carlos Saldanha)
Best Documentary Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of TIFF

1. Icarus (Netflix) — podcast (Bryan Fogel)

2. Faces Places (JR, Agnes Varda & Rosalie Varda)

3. Strong Island (Joslyn Barnes & Yance Ford)

4. Last Men in Aleppo (Kareem Abeed, Feras Fayyad & Soren Steen Jespersen)

5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (Julie Goldman, Steve James & Mark Mitten)
Best Foreign Language Film

Image Credit: Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival

1. Lebanon (The Insult)

2. Chile (A Fantastic Woman)

3. Sweden (The Square)

4. Hungary (On Body and Soul)

5. Russia (Loveless)
Best Cinematography

Image Credit: Courtesy of Steve Dietl/NETFLIX

1. Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)

2. Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)

3. The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)

4. Mudbound (Rachel Morrison) — podcast

5. Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
Best Costume Design

Image Credit: Peter Mountain/Focus Features

1. Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)

2. The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)

3. Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)

4. Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)

5. Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)
Best Film Editing

Image Credit: Courtesy of TriStar Pictures

1. Dunkirk (Lee Smith)

2. Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss)

3. The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)

4. I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Image Credit: Jack English/Focus Features

1. Darkest Hour (David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick & Kazuhiro Tsuji)

2. Victoria & Abdul (Daniel Phillips & Lou Sheppard)

3. Wonder (Arjen Tuiten)
Best Original Score

Image Credit: Photofest

1. The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)

2. Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)

3. Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer) — podcast

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

5. Three Billboards Outsdie Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)
Best Original Song

Image Credit: Courtesy of Disney/Pixar

1. "Remember Me" — (Coco)
Music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson Lopez & Robert Lopez

2. "This Is Me" — (The Greatest Showman)
Music and lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul

3. "Stand Up for Something" — (Marshall)
Music by Diane Warren, lyrics by Common & Diane Warren — podcast (Common), podcast (Warren)

4. "Mighty River" — (Mudbound)
Music and lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson — podcast (Blige)

5. "The Mystery of Love" — (Call Me by Your Name)
Music and lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
Best Production Design

Image Credit: Courtesy of Walt Disney Pictures

1. Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola)

2. The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)

3. Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis)

4. Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer)

5. Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer)
Best Sound Editing

Image Credit: Courtesy of Twentieth Century Fox

1. Dunkirk (Alex Gibson & Richard King)

2. The Shape of Water (Nelson Ferreira & Nathan Robitaille)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (Theo Green & Mark Mangini)

4. Baby Driver (Julian Slater)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce & Matthew Wood)
Best Sound Mixing

Image Credit: Melinda Sue Gordon/Warner Bros. Pictures

1. Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten)

2. The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Mac Ruth)

4. Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson)
Best Visual Effects

Image Credit: Stephen Vaughan/Warner Bros.

1. Blade Runner 2049 (Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer & John Nelson)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Joel Whist)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend & Guy Williams)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Chris Corbould, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland & Neal Scanlon)

5. Kong: Skull Island (Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus, Stephen Rosenbaum & Jeff White)
Best Animated Short

Image Credit: Courtesy of Tribeca Film Festival

1. Dear Basketball (Kobe Bryant & Glen Keane)

2. Lou (Dave Mullins & Dana Murray)

3. Garden Party (Victor Caire & Gabriel Grapperon)

4. Revolting Rhymes (Jan Lachauer & Jakob Schuh)

5. Negative Space (Max Porter & Ru Kuwahata)
Best Documentary Short

1. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Frank Stiefel)

2. Edith+Eddie (Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright)

3. Heroin(e) (Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon)

4. Knife Skills (Thomas Lennon)

5. Traffic Stop (Kate Davis and David Heilbroner)
Best Live Action Short

Image Credit: Courtesy of 2018 Oscar® Nominated Short Films

1. The Eleven O'Clock (Derin Seale)

2. Watu Wote/All of Us (Katja Benrath & Tobi)

3. The Silent Child (Chris Overton & Rachel Shenton)

4. My Nephew Emmett (Kevin Wilson, Jr.)

5. DeKalb Elementary (Reed Van Dyk)