Feinberg Forecast: First Post-Nominations Read of the 70th Emmys Race
The charts below — which will be updated every Monday between now and the 70th Emmy Awards on Sept. 17 — reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the standings would look if voting ended today. These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many shows), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).
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Best Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Americans (FX)
This Is Us (NBC)
Westworld (HBO)
Stranger Things (Netflix) -
Best Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Atlanta (FX)
Barry (HBO)
GLOW (Netflix)
Black-ish (ABC)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO) -
Best Limited Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Genius: Picasso (National Geographic)
The Alienist (TNT) -
Best Television Movie
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
The Tale (HBO)
Paterno (HBO)
Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
Flint (Lifetime) -
Best Actor in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Ed Harris (Westworld)
Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) -
Best Actress in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
Keri Russell (The Americans) — podcast
Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) -
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Matt Smith (The Crown)
Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland) -
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)
Thandie Newton (Westworld) -
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Ted Danson (The Good Place)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) -
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Louie Anderson (Baskets)
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) -
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne)
Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)
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Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast -
Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jessica Biel (The Sinner) — podcast
Laura Dern (The Tale)
Michelle Dockery (Godless)
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)
Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
Regina King (Seven Seconds) -
Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Finn Wittrock (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Leguizamo (Waco) -
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Merritt Wever (Godless)
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Adina Porter (American Horror Story: Cult)
Letitia Wright (Black Mirror: Black Museum) -
Best Variety Sketch Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Portlandia (IFC)
Drunk History (Comedy Central)
Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)
I Love You, America (Hulu)
At Home with Amy Sedaris (truTV) -
Best Variety Talk Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Last Week Tonight (HBO)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS) — podcast
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast -
Best Reality-Competition Program
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Voice (NBC)
RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
The Amazing Race (CBS)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Top Chef (Bravo) -
Best Structured Reality Program
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Shark Tank (ABC)
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Lip Sync Battle (Paramount Network)
Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC)
Fixer Upper (HGTV)
Antiques Roadshow (PBS) -
Best Unstructured Reality Program
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked (VH1)
Born This Way (A&E)
Deadliest Catch (Discovery Channel)
Intervention (A&E)
Naked and Afraid (Discovery Channel) -
Best Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) — podcast
W. Kamau Bell (United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell)
Ellen DeGeneres (Ellen's Game of Games)
Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night)
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn (Project Runway) -
Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling (HBO) — podcast
Icarus (Netflix) — podcast
Spielberg (HBO)
Mister Rogers: It's You I Like (PBS)
Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond (Netflix) -
Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Wild Wild Country (Netflix)
The Defiant Ones (HBO)
The Fourth Estate (Showtime)
Blue Planet II (BBC America)
American Masters (PBS) -
Best Variety Special (Live)
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (NBC)
The Oscars (ABC)
60th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
The 75th Annual Golden Globes (NBC)
Night Of Too Many Stars: America Unites for Autism Programs (HBO) -
Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2018 (CBS)
Carol Burnett Show 50th Anniversary Special (CBS)
Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life (Netflix)
Dave Chappelle: Equanimity (Netflix)
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American* Puerto Rico (*It’s Complicated) (TBS) -
Best Informational Series or Special
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (CNN)
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman (Netflix)
Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath (A&E)
Vice (HBO)
StarTalk With Neil deGrasse Tyson (Nat Geo) -
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Ron Cephas-Jones (This Is Us)
Gerald McRainey (This Is Us)
Matthew Goode (The Crown)
Cameron Britton (Mindhunter)
Jimmi Simpson (Westworld)
F. Murray Abraham (Homeland) -
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away with Murder)
Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones)
Viola Davis (Scandal)
Samira Wiley (The Handmaid's Tale)
Cherry Jones (The Handmaid's Tale)
Kelly Jenrette (The Handmaid's Tale) -
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Donald Glover (Saturday Night Live)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Curb Your Enthusiasm) — podcast
Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)
Bryan Cranston (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Sterling K. Brown (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) — podcast
Katt Williams (Atlanta) -
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Tina Fey (Saturday Night Live)
Tiffany Haddish (Saturday Night Live)
Molly Shannon (Will & Grace)
Wanda Sykes (Black-ish)
Maya Rudolph (The Good Place) -
Best Directing for a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Crown — "Paterfamilias" (Stephen Daldry)
The Handmaid's Tale — "After" (Kari Skogland)
Game of Thrones — "The Dragon and the Wolf" (Jeremy Podeswa)
Game of Thrones — "Beyond the Wall" (Alan Taylor)
Stranger Things — "Chapter Nine: The Gate" (The Duffer Brothers)
Ozark — "The Toll" (Jason Bateman)
Ozark — "Tonight We Improve" (Daniel Sackheim) -
Best Directing for a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel — "Pilot" (Amy Sherman-Palladino)
Atlanta — "Fubu" (Donald Glover)
Barry — "Chapter One: Make Your Mark" (Bill Hader)
GLOW — "Pilot" (Jesse Peretz)
Silicon Valley — "Initial Coin Offering" (Mike Judge)
The Big Bang Theory — "The Bow-Tie Symmetry" (Mark Cendrowski)
Atlanta — "Teddy Perkins" (Hiro Murai) -
Best Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — "The Man Who Would Be Vogue" (Ryan Murphy) — podcast
Godless (Scott Frank)
The Looming Tower — "9/11" (Craig Zisk)
Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski)
Paterno (Barry Levinson)
Twin Peaks (David Lynch)
Patrick Melrose (Edward Berger) -
Best Directing for a Variety Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Saturday Night Live — "Host: Donald Glover" (Don Roy King)
Last Week Tonight — "Episode 421" (Paul Pennolino)
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee — "Episode 2061" (Andre Allen)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert — "Episode 438" (Jim Hoskinson)
The Late Late Show with James Corden — "Episode 0416" (Tim Mancinelli)
Portlandia — "Riot Spray" (Carrie Brownstein) -
Best Writing for a Drama Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Americans — "START" (Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg)
Killing Eve — "Nice Face" (Phoebe Waller-Bridge)
Game of Thrones — "The Dragon and the Wolf" (David Benioff and D.B. Weiss)
Stranger Things — "Chapter Nine: The Gate" (The Duffer Brothers)
The Handmaid's Tale — "June" (Bruce Miller)
The Crown — "Mystery Man" (Peter Morgan) -
Best Writing for a Comedy Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel — "Pilot" (Amy Sherman-Palladino)
Atlanta — "Barbershop" (Stefani Robinson)
Atlanta — "Alligator Man" (Donald Glover)
Barry — "Chapter One: Make Your Mark" (Bill Hader)
Barry — "Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going" (Liz Sarnoff)
Silicon Valley — "Fifty-One Percent" (Alec Berg) -
Best Writing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Godless (Scott Frank)
Black Mirror: USS Callister (Charlie Brooker and William Bridges)
Twin Peaks (Mark Frost and David Lynch)
Patrick Melrose (David Nicholls)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — "House by the Lake" (Tom Rob Smith)
American Vandal — "Clean Up" (Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus) -
Best Writing for a Variety Series
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Late Night with Seth Meyers
Saturday Night Live