Feinberg Forecast: Where Things Stand as Final Emmy Voting Gets Underway

5:03 PM 8/15/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist assesses the race.

Black Mirror Still Season 4 USS Callister Episode 4 - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of Netflix

The charts below — which will be updated every Monday between now and the 70th Emmy Awards on Sept. 17 — reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the standings would look if voting ended today. These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many shows), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

  • Best Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    The Handmaid's Tale
    (Hulu)
    The Crown
    (Netflix)
    The Americans (FX)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    Westworld (HBO)

  • Best Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Atlanta (FX)
    Barry (HBO)
    GLOW (Netflix)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

  • Best Limited Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
    Genius: Picasso (Nat Geo)
    The Alienist (TNT)

  • Best Television Movie

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
    The Tale (HBO)
    Flint (Lifetime)
    Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
    Paterno (HBO)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Ed Harris (Westworld)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Keri Russell (The Americans) — podcast
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
    Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Ted Danson (The Good Place) — podcast
    Bill Hader (Barry)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne)
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)

    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)

     

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
    Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
    Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
    Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Jessica Biel (The Sinner) — podcast
    Laura Dern (The Tale)
    Michelle Dockery (Godless)
    Regina King (Seven Seconds)
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
    Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
    Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story) — podcast
    Finn Wittrock (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    John Leguizamo (Waco)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Merritt Wever (Godless)
    Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story) — podcast
    Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
    Letitia Wright (Black Mirror: Black Museum)
    Adina Porter (American Horror Story: Cult)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)
    I Love You, America (Hulu)
    At Home with Amy Sedaris (truTV)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Last Week Tonight (HBO)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    The Late Late Show with James Corden
    (CBS) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast
    The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast

  • Best Reality-Competition Program

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Voice (NBC)
    RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
    The Amazing Race (CBS)
    American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
    Project Runway (Lifetime)
    Top Chef (Bravo)

  • Best Structured Reality Program

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Shark Tank (ABC)
    Queer Eye (Netflix)
    Lip Sync Battle (Paramount Network)
    Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC)
    Fixer Upper (HGTV)
    Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

  • Best Unstructured Reality Program

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
    RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked (VH1)
    Born This Way (A&E)
    Deadliest Catch (Discovery Channel)
    Intervention (A&E)
    Naked and Afraid (Discovery Channel)

  • Best Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) — podcast
    W. Kamau Bell (United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell)
    Ellen DeGeneres (Ellen's Game of Games)
    Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night)
    Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn (Project Runway)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling (HBO) — podcast
    Icarus (Netflix) — podcast
    Spielberg (HBO)
    Mister Rogers: It's You I Like (PBS)
    Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond (Netflix)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Wild Wild Country (Netflix)
    Blue Planet II
    (BBC America)
    The Defiant Ones (HBO)
    The Fourth Estate (Showtime)
    American Masters (PBS)

  • Best Variety Special (Live)

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (NBC)
    Night Of Too Many Stars: America Unites for Autism Programs (HBO)
    The Oscars (ABC)
    60th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
    The 75th Annual Golden Globes (NBC)

  • Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2018 (CBS) — podcast [James Corden]
    Carol Burnett Show 50th Anniversary Special (CBS) — podcast [Carol Burnett]
    Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life (Netflix)
    Dave Chappelle: Equanimity (Netflix)
    Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American* Puerto Rico (*It’s Complicated) (TBS) — podcast [Samantha Bee]

  • Best Informational Series or Special

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (CNN)
    My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman (Netflix)
    Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath (A&E)
    Vice
    (HBO)
    StarTalk With Neil deGrasse Tyson (Nat Geo)

  • Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Ron Cephas-Jones (This Is Us)
    Gerald McRaney (This Is Us)
    Matthew Goode (The Crown)
    Cameron Britton (Mindhunter)
    Jimmi Simpson (Westworld)
    F. Murray Abraham (Homeland)

  • Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Viola Davis (Scandal)
    Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away with Murder)
    Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones)
    Samira Wiley (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Cherry Jones (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Kelly Jenrette (The Handmaid's Tale)

  • Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Donald Glover (Saturday Night Live)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Curb Your Enthusiasm) — podcast
    Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)
    Sterling K. Brown (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) — podcast

    Bryan Cranston (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Katt Williams (Atlanta)

  • Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Tina Fey (Saturday Night Live)
    Tiffany Haddish (Saturday Night Live)
    Molly Shannon (Will & Grace)

    Wanda Sykes (Black-ish)
    Maya Rudolph (The Good Place)

  • Best Directing for a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel — "Pilot" (Amy Sherman-Palladino)
    Atlanta — "Fubu" (Donald Glover)
    Barry — "Chapter One: Make Your Mark" (Bill Hader)
    GLOW — "Pilot" (Jesse Peretz)
    Silicon Valley — "Initial Coin Offering" (Mike Judge)
    The Big Bang Theory — "The Bow-Tie Symmetry" (Mark Cendrowski)
    Atlanta — "Teddy Perkins" (Hiro Murai)

  • Best Directing for a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Crown — "Paterfamilias" (Stephen Daldry)
    The Handmaid's Tale — "After" (Kari Skogland)
    Game of Thrones — "The Dragon and the Wolf" (Jeremy Podeswa)
    Game of Thrones — "Beyond the Wall" (Alan Taylor)
    Stranger Things — "Chapter Nine: The Gate" (The Duffer Brothers)
    Ozark — "The Toll" (Jason Bateman)
    Ozark — "Tonight We Improve" (Daniel Sackheim)

  • Best Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — "The Man Who Would Be Vogue" (Ryan Murphy) — podcast
    Godless (Scott Frank)
    The Looming Tower — "9/11" (Craig Zisk)
    Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski)
    Twin Peaks (David Lynch)
    Paterno (Barry Levinson)
    Patrick Melrose (Edward Berger)

  • Best Directing for a Variety Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Saturday Night Live — "Host: Donald Glover" (Don Roy King)
    Last Week Tonight — "Episode 421" (Paul Pennolino)
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee — "Episode 2061" (Andre Allen)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert — "Episode 438" (Jim Hoskinson)
    The Late Late Show with James Corden — "Episode 0416" (Tim Mancinelli)
    Portlandia — "Riot Spray" (Carrie Brownstein)

  • Best Writing for a Drama Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Americans — "START" (Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg)
    Killing Eve — "Nice Face" (Phoebe Waller-Bridge)
    Game of Thrones — "The Dragon and the Wolf" (David Benioff and D.B. Weiss)
    Stranger Things — "Chapter Nine: The Gate" (The Duffer Brothers)
    The Handmaid's Tale — "June" (Bruce Miller)
    The Crown "Mystery Man" (Peter Morgan)

  • Best Writing for a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel — "Pilot" (Amy Sherman-Palladino)
    Atlanta — "Barbershop" (Stefani Robinson)
    Atlanta — "Alligator Man" (Donald Glover)
    Barry — "Chapter One: Make Your Mark" (Bill Hader)
    Barry — "Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going" (Liz Sarnoff)
    Silicon Valley — "Fifty-One Percent" (Alec Berg)

  • Best Writing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Godless (Scott Frank)
    Black Mirror: USS Callister (Charlie Brooker and William Bridges)
    Twin Peaks (Mark Frost and David Lynch)
    Patrick Melrose (David Nicholls)
    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — "House by the Lake" (Tom Rob Smith)
    American Vandal — "Clean Up" (Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus)

  • Best Writing for a Variety Series

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee

    Late Night with Seth Meyers
    Saturday Night Live