Feinberg Forecast: Final Pre-Nomination Emmy Predictions (7/12/16)

5:57 AM 7/12/2016

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst locks in his picks for all major categories — and a host of others — ahead of Thursday's big announcement.

Downton Abbey -Christmas Final Episode 2015- Behind The Scenes-Publicity-H 2016
Courtesy of Nick Briggs
 
 
 
 
 

The "Feinberg Forecast" features THR awards columnist Scott Feinberg's Emmy projections, which he makes on the basis of his viewings of shows, familiarity with awards history and conversations with industry insiders.

Click here to get an email alert whenever Scott updates his "Feinberg Forecast."

  • Best Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    House of Cards (Netflix)
    Downton Abbey (PBS)
    Better Call Saul (AMC)
    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Homeland (Showtime)

    ALTERNATE

    The Good Wife (CBS)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jessica Jones (Netflix)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Horace and Pete (LouisCK.net)

  • Best Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Veep (HBO)
    Transparent (Amazon)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Modern Family (ABC)
    Master of None (Netflix)
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    Black-ish (ABC)

    ALTERNATE

    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (The CW)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    The Carmichael Show (NBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Schitt's Creek (Pop)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
    Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
    Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
    Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
    Paul Giamatti (Billions)
    Damian Lewis (Billions)

    ALTERNATE

    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Wagner Moura (Narcos)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Bobby Cannavale (Vinyl)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder)
    Robin Wright (House of Cards)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)
    Taraji P. Henson (Empire)
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)

    ALTERNATE

    Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jennifer Lopez (Shades of Blue)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
    Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth)
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)

    ALTERNATE

    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jerrod Carmichael (The Carmichael Show)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
    Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer)
    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)

    ALTERNATE

    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Sutton Foster (Younger)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Anna Faris (Mom)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)
    Alan Alda (Horace and Pete)
    Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)
    Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)

    ALTERNATE

    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ben Mendelsohn (Bloodline)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Robert James-Collier (Downton Abbey)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
    Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
    Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)

    ALTERNATE

    Maggie Siff (Billions)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Margo Martindale (The Good Wife)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Tony Hale (Veep)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    T.J. Miller (Silicon Valley)
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Keegan-Michael Key (Key and Peele)

    ALTERNATE

    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Timothy Simons (Veep)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Louie Anderson (Baskets)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
    Allison Janney (Mom)
    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

    ALTERNATE

    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Noel Wells (Master of None)

  • Best Limited Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The People v. O.J. Simpson (FX)
    Fargo (FX)
    American Crime (ABC)
    Show Me a Hero (HBO)
    Roots (History)

    ALTERNATE

    The Night Manager (AMC)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Madoff (ABC)

  • Best Television Movie

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    All the Way (HBO)
    Confirmation (HBO)
    Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)
    Luther (BBC One)
    The Dresser (Starz)
    A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

    ALTERNATE

    Special Correspondents (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Dolly Parton's Coat of Many Colors (NBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Donald Trump's The Art of the Deal: The Movie (Funny Or Die)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
    Bryan Cranston (All the Way)
    Cuba Gooding, Jr. (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
    Idris Elba (Luther)
    Tom Hiddleston (The Night Manager)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: The Abominable Bride)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
    Kirsten Dunst (Fargo)
    Kerry Washington (Confirmation)
    Felicity Huffman (American Crime)
    Lady Gaga (American Horror Story: Hotel)
    Riley Keough (The Girlfriend Experience)

    ALTERNATE

    Blythe Danner (Madoff)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Shanice Williams (The Wiz Live!)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Sterling K. Brown (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
    Forest Whitaker (Roots)
    Hugh Laurie (The Night Manager)
    Wendell Pierce (Confirmation)
    John Travolta (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
    Jesse Plemons (Fargo)

    ALTERNATE

    Anthony Mackie (All the Way)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Bokeem Woodbine (Fargo)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Connor Jessup (American Crime)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jean Smart (Fargo)
    Regina King (American Crime)
    Melissa Leo (All the Way)
    Olivia Colman (The Night Manager)
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Hotel)
    Elizabeth Debicki (The Night Manager)

    ALTERNATE

    Catherine Keener (Show Me a Hero)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Vanessa Hudgens (Grease Live!)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Anika Noni Rose (Roots)

  • Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife)
    Reg E. Cathey (House of Cards)
    B.D. Wong (Mr. Robot)
    Ed Begley, Jr. (Better Call Saul)
    Max von Sydow (Game of Thrones)
    Hank Azaria (Ray Donovan)

    ALTERNATE

    Mark Margolis (Better Call Saul)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jeffrey Dean Morgan (The Walking Dead)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Blair Underwood (The Good Wife)

  • Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Margo Martindale (The Americans)
    Allison Janney (Masters of Sex)
    Laurie Metcalf (Horace and Pete)
    Ellen Burstyn (House of Cards)
    Mary Steenburgen (Orange Is the New Black)
    Carrie Preston (The Good Wife)

    ALTERNATE

    Cynthia Nixon (The Affair)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Carrie Fisher (Girlfriends' Guide to Divorce)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Karen Pittman (Horace and Pete)

  • Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Larry David (Saturday Night Live)
    Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory)
    Tracy Morgan (Saturday Night Live)
    Shoukath Ansari (Master of None)
    Judd Hirsch (The Big Bang Theory)
    Ryan Gosling (Saturday Night Live)

    ALTERNATE

    Joe Manganiello (Mom)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Bill Hader (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Noah Emmerich (Master of None)

  • Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Tina Fey & Amy Poehler (Saturday Night Live)
    Claire Danes (Master of None)
    Christine Baranski (The Big Bang Theory)
    Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live)
    Ellen Burstyn (Mom)
    Ariana Grande (Saturday Night Live)

    ALTERNATE

    Lisa Kudrow (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Danielle Brooks (Master of None)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Emily Osment (Mom)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
    The Late Late Show with James Corden
    (CBS)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
    Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

    ALTERNATE

    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Conan (TBS)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
    Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Billy on the Street (truTV)

    ALTERNATE

    Drunk History (Comedy Central)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Documentary Now! (IFC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    W/ Bob & David (Netflix)

  • Best Variety Special

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Lemonade (HBO)
    Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
    Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO)
    CONAN in Korea (TBS)
    Jazz At The White House (ABC)
    Adele Live in New York City (NBC)

    ALTERNATE

    Imagine John Lennon 75th Birthday Concert (AMC)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Triumph's Election Special 2016 (Hulu)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Billboard Women In Music 2015 (Lifetime)

  • Best Structured Reality Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Shark Tank (ABC)
    Undercover Boss (CBS)
    Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
    Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)
    MythBusters (Discovery Channel)
    Lip Sync Battle (Spike)

    ALTERNATE

    The Profit (CNBC)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Little Big Shots (NBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC)

  • Best Unstructured Reality Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Deadliest Catch (Discovery Channel)
    Alaska: The Last Frontier (Discovery Channel)
    Wahlburgers (A&E)
    Intervention (A&E)
    Million Dollar Listing New York (Bravo)
    I Am Cait (E!)

    ALTERNATE

    United Shades of America (CNN)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Gaycation with Ellen Page (Viceland)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Project Greenlight (HBO)

  • Best Reality-Competition Program

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Amazing Race (CBS)
    The Voice (NBC)
    Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
    So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
    Top Chef (Bravo)
    American Idol (FOX)

    ALTERNATE

    Project Runway (Lifetime)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    America's Got Talent (NBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

  • Best Special Class Program

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Wiz Live! (NBC)
    88th Academy Awards (ABC)
    Grease Live! (FOX)
    73rd Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
    58th Grammy Awards (CBS)

    ALTERNATE

    Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill (HBO)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show (CBS)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Dudamel Conducts A John Williams Celebration With The LA Phil (PBS)

  • Best Documentary or Non-Fiction Series

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Making a Murderer (Netflix)
    American Masters (PBS)
    Chef's Table (Netflix)
    The Circus: Inside The Greatest Political Show On Earth (Showtime)
    The Seventies (CNN)

    ALTERNATE

    Cooked (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Race for the White House (CNN)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Woman with Gloria Steinem (Viceland)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Fixing The System (Vice)
    Everything is Copy - Nora Ephron: Scripted & Unscripted (HBO)
    Jackie Robinson (PBS)
    Becoming Mike Nichols (HBO)
    What Happened, Miss Simone? (Netflix)

    ALTERNATE

    Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Listen to Me Marlon (Showtime)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    Mapplethorpe: Look At The Pictures (HBO)

  • Best Informational Series or Special

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (CNN)
    Vice (HBO)
    Inside the Actors Studio (Bravo)
    Keith Richards: Under the Influence (Netflix)
    StarTalk With Neil deGrasse Tyson (National Geographic Channel)

    ALTERNATE

    Finding Your Roots (PBS)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jay Leno's Garage (CNBC)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER

    The New Yorker Presents (Amazon)