Feinberg Forecast: First Read on 2018 Emmys Race

9:58 AM 4/12/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg offers the first of what will be weekly assessments of the race. This one covers 16 major categories.

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel S01 Still 1 - Publicity - H 2017
Nicole Rivelli/Amazon Studios

The charts below reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting ended today. They are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how other shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

  • Best Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    The Handmaid's Tale
    (Hulu)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Crown
    (Netflix)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    The Americans (FX)
    Westworld (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Homeland (Showtime)
    Ozark
    (Netflix) NEW!
    The Chi (Showtime) NEW!
    Trust (FX) NEW!
    Ray Donovan (Showtime)
    Mindhunter (Netflix) NEW!
    The Deuce (HBO) NEW!
    Killing Eve (BBC America) NEW!

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Good Doctor (ABC) NEW!
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Counterpart (Starz) NEW!

    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
    Sneaky Pete
    (Amazon)
    13 Reasons Why
    (Netflix)
    Legion (FX)
    Outlander (Starz)

    LONG SHOTS

    Altered Carbon (Netflix) NEW!
    Good Girls (NBC) NEW!
    Here and Now (HBO) NEW!
    Billions
    (Showtime)
    Narcos (Netflix)
    Empire (Fox)
    Scandal (ABC)
    UnREAL (Lifetime)
    Victoria (PBS)

  • Best Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon) NEW!
    Atlanta (FX)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Will and Grace (NBC) NEW!
    Barry (HBO) NEW!
    GLOW (Netflix) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Modern Family (ABC)
    Roseanne (ABC) NEW!
    Better Things (FX)
    SMILF (Showtime) NEW!
    Shameless (Showtime)
    Insecure (HBO)
    The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
    The Last O.G. (TBS) NEW!

    POSSIBILITIES

    Arrested Development (Netflix) NEW!
    Mom
    (CBS)
    The Good Place (NBC)
    Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)
    Grace and Frankie
    (Netflix)
    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
    (The CW)
    Baskets (FX)
    Fresh Off the Boat (ABC)
    Transparent (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jane the Virgin (The CW)
    Divorce (HBO)
    One Day at a Time (Netflix)
    Superstore (NBC)
    Great News (NBC)
    Brockmire (IFC)
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)
    You're the Worst (FX)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Looming Tower (Hulu)
    Twin Peaks (Showtime)
    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Howards End (Starz)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
    Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)
    The Sinner (USA)
    Mosaic (HBO)
    Genius (National Geographic)
    American Vandal (Netflix)
    The Long Road Home (National Geographic)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Little Women (PBS)
    Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders (A&E)
    American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
    Collateral (Netflix)
    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)
    The Terror (AMC)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alias Grace (Netflix)
    Waco (Paramount Network)
    Unsolved (USA)
    National Treasure: Kiri (Hulu)
    Gunpowder (HBO)
    The Alienist (TNT)
    Love, Lies & Records (Acorn TV)

  • Best Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
    Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
    Paterno (HBO)
    The Tale (HBO)
    Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams (Amazon)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Flint (Lifetime)
    Notes from the Field (HBO)
    The Child in Time (BBC One)
    A Futile and Stupid Gesture (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    I Am Elizabeth Smart (Lifetime)
    Cocaine Godmother (Lifetime)
    Story of a Girl (Lifetime)
    George Gently and the New Age (Acorn TV)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
    Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)
    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Jason Bateman (Ozark) NEW!
    Donald Sutherland (Trust) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    J.K. Simmons (Counterpart) NEW!
    Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor) NEW!
    Jason Mitchell (The Chi) NEW!
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast
    Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter) NEW!
    Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath) — podcast

    POSSIBLITIES

    James Franco (The Deuce) — podcast NEW!
    Tim Robbins (Here and Now) NEW!
    Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)
    Sam Heughan (Outlander)
    Dan Stevens (Legion)
    Paul Giamatti (Billions)
    Dylan Minnette (13 Reasons Why)
    Pierce Brosnan (The Son) NEW!
    Peter Krause (9-1-1) NEW!

    LONG SHOTS

    Brendan Gleeson (Mr. Mercedes) NEW!
    David Duchovny (The X-Files)
    Kiefer Sutherland (Designated Survivor)
    Terrence Howard (Empire)
    Wagner Moura (Narcos)
    Damian Lewis (Billions)
    Hugh Dancy (The Path)
    Aaron Paul (The Path)
    Tom Hardy (Taboo)
    Joel Kinnaman (Altered Carbon) NEW!

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Keri Russell (The Americans)
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)
    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Laura Linney (Ozark) NEW!
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) NEW!
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) NEW!
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce) NEW!
    Christina Hendricks (Good Girls) NEW!

    POSSIBILITIES

    Regina King (Seven Seconds) NEW!
    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Holly Hunter (Here and Now) NEW!
    Angela Bassett (9-1-1) NEW!
    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
    Taraji P. Henson (Empire) — podcast
    Kerry Washington (Scandal)

    LONG SHOTS

    Krysten Ritter (Jessica Jones) — podcast
    Taylor Schilling (Orange Is the New Black)
    Gillian Anderson (The X-Files)
    Michelle Monaghan (The Path)
    Shiri Appleby (UnREAL)
    Melissa Leo (I'm Dying Up Here)
    Jenna Coleman (Victoria)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
    Noah Emmerich (The Americans)
    Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Brendan Fraser (Trust) NEW!
    Noah Schnapp (Stranger Things)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Asia Kate Dillon (Billions)
    Delroy Lindo (The Good Fight)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)
    Richard Schiff (The Good Doctor)
    Hill Harper (The Good Doctor) NEW!
    Bobby Cannavale (Mr. Robot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Harris Dickinson (Trust)
    James Marsden (Westworld)
    Alex Hibbert (The Chi)
    David Strathairn (McMafia) NEW!
    BD Wong (Mr. Robot)
    Justin Bartha (The Good Fight)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hilary Swank (Trust) NEW!
    Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones)
    Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) — podcast
    Julia Garner (Ozark) NEW!
    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
    Anna Torv (Mindhunter) NEW!
    Cush Jumbo (The Good Fight)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Margo Martindale (Sneaky Pete)
    Janet McTeer (Jessica Jones)
    Connie Britton (9-1-1) NEW!
    Maggie Siff (Billions)
    Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)
    Betty Gabriel (Westworld)
    Holly Taylor (The Americans)
    Retta (Good Girls) NEW!
    Mae Whitman (Good Girls) NEW!
    Mary-Louise Parker (Mr. Mercedes) NEW!
    Holland Taylor (Mr. Mercedes) NEW!

    LONG SHOTS

    Aubrey Plaza (Legion)
    Susan Sarandon (Ray Donovan) NEW!

    Renee Elise Goldsberry (Altered Carbon) NEW!
    Elizabeth Marvel (Homeland)
    Aisha Hinds (9-1-1) NEW!
    Carly Chaikin (Mr. Robot)
    Portia Doubleday (Mr. Robot)
    Paula Malcomson (Ray Donovan)
    Malin Akerman (Billions)
    Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Eric McCormack (Will and Grace) NEW!
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Bill Hader (Barry) NEW!
    John Goodman (Roseanne) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)
    Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
    Ted Danson (The Good Place)
    Tracy Morgan (The Last O.G.) NEW!
    Jason Bateman (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth) — podcast
    Ian Armitage (Young Sheldon) NEW!
    Thomas Haden Church (Divorce)
    Hank Azaria (Brockmire) — podcast
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
    Randall Park (Fresh Off the Boat)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
    Neil Patrick Harris (A Series of Unfortunate Events)
    Timothy Olyphant (Santa Clarita Diet)
    Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Chris O'Dowd (Get Shorty) NEW!
    Tommy Dewey (Casual)
    Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) — podcast

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast NEW!
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Debra Messing (Will and Grace) NEW!
    Alison Brie (GLOW) NEW!
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Frankie Shaw (SMILF) — podcast NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Roseanne Barr (Roseanne) NEW!
    Minnie Driver (Speechless)
    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
    Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
    Tiffany Haddish (The Last O.G.) NEW!
    Justine Machado (One Day at a Time)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)
    Tracey Ullmann (Tracey Ullmann's Show)
    Andrea Martin (Great News) — podcast
    Kathy Bates (Disjointed) NEW!
    Sutton Foster (Younger)
    Portia de Rossi (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Kaitlin Olson (The Mick)
    Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat)
    Anna Faris (Mom)

    LONG SHOTS

    Logan Browning (Dear White People)
    Carrie Brownstein (Portlandia)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Atypical) NEW!
    Katy Mixon (American Housewife) NEW!
    Yara Shahidi (Grown-ish) NEW!
    Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Amanda Peet (Brockmire)
    America Ferrera (Superstore)
    Rashida Jones (Angie Tribeca)
    Michaela Watkins (Casual)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Sean Hayes (Will and Grace) NEW!
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) NEW!
    Marc Maron (GLOW) — podcast NEW!
    Henry Winkler (Barry) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) NEW!
    Kumail Nanjiani (Silicon Valley) — podcast
    Tony Hale (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Zach Woods (Silicon Valley)
    Walton Goggins (Vice Principals)
    Stephen Root (Barry) NEW!

    POSSIBILITIES

    Will Arnett (Arrested Development) NEW!
    David Cross (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Michael Cera (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Beck Bennett (Saturday Night Live)
    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory)
    Jeff Garlin (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    J.B. Smoove (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Ted Danson (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

    LONG SHOTS

    Martin Sheen (Grace and Frankie)
    Sam Waterston (Grace and Frankie)
    Malcolm McDowell (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Ray Romano (Get Shorty)
    Patton Oswalt (A.P. Bio) NEW!
    Tony Danza (There's Johnny) NEW!
    Tracy Letts (Divorce)
    Jay Duplass (Transparent)
    John Michael Higgins (Great News)
    William Jackson Harper (The Good Place)
    Manny Jacinto (The Good Place)
    Jeffrey Tambor (Arrested Development) NEW!

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) NEW!
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace) NEW!
    Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne) NEW!
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) NEW!
    Betty Gilpin (GLOW) NEW!
    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
    Jennifer Lewis (Black-ish)
    Rosie O'Donnell (SMILF) NEW!
    Sara Gilbert (Roseanne) NEW!
    Jessica Walter (Arrested Development) NEW!
    Alia Shawkat (Arrested Development) NEW!

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Gaby Hoffman (Transparent)
    Amy Landecker (Transparent)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Andrea Martin (Great News) — podcast
    Nicole Richie (Great News)
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
    Molly Shannon (Divorce)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
    Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)
    Kristen Schaal (Last Man on Earth)
    Jameela Jamil (The Good Place)
    D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place)
    Cheryl Hines (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Susie Essman (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Annie Potts (Young Sheldon)
    Zoe Perry (Young Sheldon)
    Kaley Cuoco (The Big Bang Theory)
    Bernadette Peters (Mozart in the Jungle)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Al Pacino (Paterno)
    John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
    Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast
    Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Matthew Macfadyen (Howards End)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
    Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
    Evan Peters (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Jack O'Connell (Godless)
    Jimmy Tatro (American Vandal)
    Taylor Kitsch (Waco)
    Michael Kelly (The Long Road Home)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jared Harris (The Terror)
    Garrett Hedlund (Mosaic)
    Will Forte (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Bryan Cranston (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Timothy Spall (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Greg Kinnear (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Terrence Howard (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)

    LONG SHOTS

    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Child in Time) — podcast
    Daniel Bruhl (The Alienist)
    Michael Shannon (Waco) — podcast
    Kit Harington (Gunpowder)
    Kevin Kline (Present Laughter)
    Billy Crudup (Gypsy)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jessica Biel (The Sinner)
    Hayley Atwell (Howards End) — podcast
    Laura Dern (The Tale)
    Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Michelle Dockery (Godless)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Queen Latifah (Flint)
    Carey Mulligan (Collateral)
    Cristin Milioti (Black Mirror: USS Callister)
    Sharon Stone (Mosaic)
    Catherine Zeta-Jones (Cocaine Godmother)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Anna Paquin (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Kelly Macdonald (The Child in Time)
    Sarah Gadon (Alias Grace)
    Alana Boden (I Am Elizabeth Smart)
    Anna Deavere Smith (Notes from the Field)

    LONG SHOTS

    Maya Hawke (Little Women)
    Sofia Boutella (Fahrenheit 451)
    Carmen Ejogo (The Girlfriend Experience)
    Sarah Lancashire (National Treasure: Kiri)
    Ryann Shane (Story of a Girl)
    Naomi Watts (Gypsy)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
    Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
    Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
    Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Sam Waterston (Godless)
    Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
    Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
    Scoot McNairy (Godless)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)
    Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Dylan Baker (Little Women)
    Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
    Luke Evans (The Alienist)
    Josh Charles (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    John Leguizamo (Waco)
    Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Jason Ritter (The Tale)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kevin Bacon (Story of a Girl)
    Ciarin Hinds (The Terror)
    Tobias Menzies (The Terror)
    Cheyenne Jackson (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Jimmi Simpson (Unsolved)
    Domhnall Gleeson (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Joel McHale (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Matt Walsh (A Futile and Stupid Gesture) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
    Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
    Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Merritt Wever (Godless)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Naomi Watts (Twin Peaks)
    Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)
    Riley Keough (Paterno)
    Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Philippa Coulthard (Howards End)
    Tracey Ullman (Howards End)
    Julia Ormond (Howards End)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Patrick Melrose)
    Emily Watson (Little Women)
    Kathryn Newton (Little Women)
    Anna Paquin (Alias Grace)
    Dakota Fanning (The Alienist)
    Alison Pill (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Billie Lourd (American Horror Story: Cult)

    LONG SHOTS

    Vera Farmiga (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Julianne Nicholson (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Kate Burton (Present Laughter)
    Julia Garner (Waco)
    Allison Tolman (Mosaic)
    Andrea Riseborough (Waco)