Feinberg Forecast: Emmy Standings As the Race Heads Into May

2:30 PM 4/30/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg offers the second of his weekly assessments of the race. This one covers 18 categories — now including best variety sketch series and best variety talk series!

SMILF Still - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of Mark Schafer/Showtime

The charts below reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Eligible for consideration is work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how other shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

  • Best Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    The Handmaid's Tale
    (Hulu)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Crown
    (Netflix)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    Westworld (HBO)
    The Americans (FX)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Homeland (Showtime)
    Ozark
    (Netflix)
    The Chi (Showtime)
    Killing Eve (BBC America)
    Trust (FX)
    Ray Donovan (Showtime)
    Mindhunter (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Deuce (HBO)
    The Good Doctor (ABC)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Counterpart (Starz)

    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
    Sneaky Pete
    (Amazon)
    13 Reasons Why
    (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Scandal (ABC)
    Legion (FX)
    Outlander (Starz)
    Altered Carbon
    (Netflix)
    Here and Now (HBO)
    Billions
    (Showtime)
    Empire (Fox)
    Victoria (PBS)

  • Best Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Atlanta (FX)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Will and Grace (NBC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Barry (HBO)
    GLOW (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    Modern Family (ABC)
    Roseanne (ABC)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Better Things (FX)
    SMILF (Showtime)
    Shameless (Showtime)
    The Last O.G. (TBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Insecure (HBO)
    Arrested Development
    (Netflix)

    The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
    Mom
    (CBS)
    The Good Place (NBC)
    Grace and Frankie
    (Netflix)
    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
    (The CW)
    Baskets (FX)

    LONG SHOTS

    Transparent (Amazon)
    Jane the Virgin
    (The CW)
    Fresh Off the Boat (ABC)
    Divorce (HBO)
    One Day at a Time (Netflix)
    Superstore (NBC)
    Great News (NBC)
    Brockmire (IFC)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Looming Tower (Hulu)
    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    Twin Peaks (Showtime)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Howards End (Starz)
    The Sinner (USA)
    Mosaic (HBO)
    Genius (National Geographic)
    Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)
    American Vandal (Netflix)
    The Long Road Home (National Geographic)

    POSSIBILITIES

    American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
    Little Women (PBS)
    Collateral (Netflix)
    The Terror (AMC)
    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)
    Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders (A&E)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alias Grace (Netflix)
    Waco (Paramount Network)
    Unsolved (USA)
    National Treasure: Kiri (Hulu)
    Gunpowder (HBO)
    The Alienist (TNT)
    Love, Lies & Records (Acorn TV) NEW!

  • Best Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
    Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
    Paterno (HBO)
    The Tale (HBO)
    Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams (Amazon)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Flint (Lifetime)
    Notes from the Field (HBO)
    The Child in Time (BBC One)
    A Futile and Stupid Gesture (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    I Am Elizabeth Smart (Lifetime)
    Cocaine Godmother (Lifetime)
    Story of a Girl (Lifetime)
    George Gently and the New Age (Acorn TV) NEW!

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
    Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)
    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Jason Bateman (Ozark)
    Donald Sutherland (Trust)

    MAJOR THREATS

    J.K. Simmons (Counterpart)
    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Jason Mitchell (The Chi)
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast
    Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter)
    Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor)

    POSSIBLITIES

    Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath) — podcast
    James Franco (The Deuce) — podcast
    Tim Robbins (Here and Now)
    Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)
    Sam Heughan (Outlander)
    Dan Stevens (Legion)
    Paul Giamatti (Billions)
    Dylan Minnette (13 Reasons Why)

    LONG SHOTS

    Pierce Brosnan (The Son)
    Peter Krause (9-1-1)
    Brendan Gleeson (Mr. Mercedes)
    David Duchovny (The X-Files)
    Kiefer Sutherland (Designated Survivor)
    Terrence Howard (Empire)
    Damian Lewis (Billions)
    Tom Hardy (Taboo)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Keri Russell (The Americans)
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)
    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Kerry Washington (Scandal)
    Regina King (Seven Seconds)
    Holly Hunter (Here and Now)
    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
    Krysten Ritter (Jessica Jones) — podcast
    Angela Bassett (9-1-1)

    LONG SHOTS

    Christina Hendricks (Good Girls) — podcast
    Taraji P. Henson (Empire) — podcast
    Taylor Schilling (Orange Is the New Black)
    Gillian Anderson (The X-Files)
    Shiri Appleby (UnREAL)
    Melissa Leo (I'm Dying Up Here)
    Jenna Coleman (Victoria) NEW!

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Noah Schnapp (Stranger Things)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)

    Noah Emmerich (The Americans)
    Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Brendan Fraser (Trust)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (The Chi) NEW!
    Asia Kate Dillon (Billions)
    Delroy Lindo (The Good Fight)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Harris Dickinson (Trust)
    James Marsden (Westworld)
    Richard Schiff (The Good Doctor)
    Hill Harper (The Good Doctor)
    Bobby Cannavale (Mr. Robot)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hilary Swank (Trust)
    Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones)
    Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) — podcast
    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Margo Martindale (Sneaky Pete)
    Anna Torv (Mindhunter)
    Cush Jumbo (The Good Fight)
    Janet McTeer (Jessica Jones)
    Connie Britton (9-1-1) NEW!
    Maggie Siff (Billions)
    Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)
    Holly Taylor (The Americans)
    Betty Gabriel (Westworld)
    Aubrey Plaza (Legion)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mary-Louise Parker (Mr. Mercedes)
    Holland Taylor (Mr. Mercedes)

    Susan Sarandon (Ray Donovan)

    Renee Elise Goldsberry (Altered Carbon)
    Elizabeth Marvel (Homeland)
    Aisha Hinds (9-1-1)
    Carly Chaikin (Mr. Robot)
    Portia Doubleday (Mr. Robot)
    Paula Malcomson (Ray Donovan)
    Malin Akerman (Billions)
    Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Bill Hader (Barry)
    John Goodman (Roseanne)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)
    Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
    Ted Danson (The Good Place)
    Tracy Morgan (The Last O.G.)
    Jason Bateman (Arrested Development)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth) — podcast
    Ian Armitage (Young Sheldon)
    Thomas Haden Church (Divorce)
    Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
    Randall Park (Fresh Off the Boat)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
    Hank Azaria (Brockmire) — podcast
    Neil Patrick Harris (A Series of Unfortunate Events)
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Timothy Olyphant (Santa Clarita Diet)
    Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Tommy Dewey (Casual)
    Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) — podcast

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Debra Messing (Will and Grace)
    Alison Brie (GLOW)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Frankie Shaw (SMILF) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Roseanne Barr (Roseanne)
    Minnie Driver (Speechless)
    Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
    Tiffany Haddish (The Last O.G.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)
    Justine Machado (One Day at a Time)
    Tracey Ullmann (Tracey Ullmann's Show)
    Andrea Martin (Great News) — podcast
    Kathy Bates (Disjointed)
    Sutton Foster (Younger)
    Portia de Rossi (Arrested Development)
    Kaitlin Olson (The Mick)
    Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat)

    LONG SHOTS

    Anna Faris (Mom)
    Logan Browning (Dear White People)
    Carrie Brownstein (Portlandia)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Atypical)
    Katy Mixon (American Housewife)
    Yara Shahidi (Grown-ish)
    Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    America Ferrera (Superstore)
    Rashida Jones (Angie Tribeca)
    Michaela Watkins (Casual)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Sean Hayes (Will and Grace)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Marc Maron (GLOW) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kumail Nanjiani (Silicon Valley) — podcast
    Tony Hale (Arrested Development)
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Stephen Root (Barry)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    Zach Woods (Silicon Valley)
    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)
    Walton Goggins (Vice Principals)
    Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory)
    Beck Bennett (Saturday Night Live)
    Will Arnett (Arrested Development)
    David Cross (Arrested Development)
    Michael Cera (Arrested Development)

    LONG SHOTS

    Martin Sheen (Grace and Frankie)
    Sam Waterston (Grace and Frankie)
    Ray Romano (Get Shorty)
    Patton Oswalt (A.P. Bio)
    Tony Danza (There's Johnny)
    Tracy Letts (Divorce)
    Jay Duplass (Transparent)
    William Jackson Harper (The Good Place)
    Manny Jacinto (The Good Place)
    Anthony Carrigan (Barry) NEW!

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
    Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne)
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Sarah Goldberg (Barry) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)
    Sara Gilbert (Roseanne)

    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Jennifer Lewis (Black-ish)
    Rosie O'Donnell (SMILF)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Gaby Hoffman (Transparent)
    Amy Landecker (Transparent)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Andrea Martin (Great News) — podcast
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
    Molly Shannon (Divorce)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jessica Walter (Arrested Development)
    Alia Shawkat (Arrested Development)

    Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
    Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)
    Kristen Schaal (Last Man on Earth)
    Jameela Jamil (The Good Place)
    D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place)
    Annie Potts (Young Sheldon)
    Zoe Perry (Young Sheldon)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Al Pacino (Paterno)
    John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
    Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
    Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast
    Matthew Macfadyen (Howards End)
    Jack O'Connell (Godless)
    Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
    Evan Peters (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Jimmy Tatro (American Vandal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taylor Kitsch (Waco)
    Michael Kelly (The Long Road Home)
    Jared Harris (The Terror)
    Garrett Hedlund (Mosaic)
    Will Forte (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Michael Shannon (Waco) — podcast
    Kit Harington (Gunpowder)

    LONG SHOTS

    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Child in Time) — podcast
    Daniel Bruhl (The Alienist)
    Kevin Kline (Present Laughter)
    Billy Crudup (Gypsy)
    Bryan Cranston (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Timothy Spall (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Greg Kinnear (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Terrence Howard (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jessica Biel (The Sinner)
    Hayley Atwell (Howards End) — podcast
    Laura Dern (The Tale)
    Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Michelle Dockery (Godless)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Sharon Stone (Mosaic)
    Queen Latifah (Flint)
    Carey Mulligan (Collateral)
    Cristin Milioti (Black Mirror: USS Callister)
    Catherine Zeta-Jones (Cocaine Godmother)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Anna Paquin (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Kelly Macdonald (The Child in Time)
    Sarah Gadon (Alias Grace)
    Alana Boden (I Am Elizabeth Smart)
    Anna Deavere Smith (Notes from the Field)

    LONG SHOTS

    Maya Hawke (Little Women)
    Sofia Boutella (Fahrenheit 451)
    Carmen Ejogo (The Girlfriend Experience)
    Ryann Shane (Story of a Girl)
    Naomi Watts (Gypsy)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
    Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
    Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
    Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Sam Waterston (Godless)
    Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
    Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
    Scoot McNairy (Godless)
    Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)
    Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Dylan Baker (Little Women)
    Luke Evans (The Alienist)
    Josh Charles (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    John Leguizamo (Waco)
    Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Jason Ritter (The Tale)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kevin Bacon (Story of a Girl)
    Ciarin Hinds (The Terror)
    Tobias Menzies (The Terror)
    Jimmi Simpson (Unsolved)
    Domhnall Gleeson (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Joel McHale (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Matt Walsh (A Futile and Stupid Gesture) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
    Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
    Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Merritt Wever (Godless)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Naomi Watts (Twin Peaks)
    Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)
    Riley Keough (Paterno)
    Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Philippa Coulthard (Howards End)
    Tracey Ullman (Howards End)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julia Ormond (Howards End)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Patrick Melrose)
    Dakota Fanning (The Alienist)
    Emily Watson (Little Women)
    Kathryn Newton (Little Women)
    Anna Paquin (Alias Grace)

    LONG SHOTS

    Vera Farmiga (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Julianne Nicholson (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Kate Burton (Present Laughter)
    Julia Garner (Waco)
    Allison Tolman (Mosaic)
    Andrea Riseborough (Waco)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)
    At Home with Amy Sedaris (truTV)
    Tosh.0 (Comedy Central)

    MAJOR THREATS

    This Is Not Happening (Comedy Central)
    The Half Hour (Comedy Central)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Whose Line Is It Anyway? (The CW)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Last Week Tonight (HBO)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
    Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) — podcast
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast
    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS) — podcast
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle) — podcast
    The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
    (Comedy Central) — podcast
    Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen (Bravo) — podcast
    Conan (TBS)
    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper (Comedy Central) NEW!
    The Break with Michelle Wolf (Netflix) NEW!
    Chelsea (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Desus & Mero (Viceland)
    @midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)
    Talking With Chris Hardwick (AMC)
    Last Call with Carson Daly (NBC)