Feinberg Forecast: T-Minus 3 Weeks Until Emmy Nomination Voting

2:59 PM 5/22/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg offers his third assessment of the race, covering 18 categories.

Killing Eve Still - Publicity - H 2018
Courtesy of BBC America

The charts below reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018 is eligible.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

  • Best Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    The Handmaid's Tale
    (Hulu)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Crown
    (Netflix)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    Westworld (HBO)
    The Americans (FX)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Homeland (Showtime)
    Ozark
    (Netflix)
    The Chi (Showtime)
    Killing Eve (BBC America)
    Ray Donovan (Showtime)
    Counterpart (Starz)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Mindhunter (Netflix)
    The Good Doctor
    (ABC)
    Trust (FX)
    The Deuce
    (HBO)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sneaky Pete (Amazon)
    Scandal
    (ABC)
    Legion (FX)
    Outlander (Starz)
    Altered Carbon
    (Netflix)
    Billions
    (Showtime)

  • Best Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Atlanta (FX)
    Barry (HBO)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Will and Grace (NBC)
    GLOW (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    Arrested Development (Netflix)

    Modern Family (ABC)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Better Things (FX)
    SMILF (Showtime)
    The Last O.G. (TBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Roseanne (ABC)
    The Good Place
    (NBC)
    Insecure (HBO)
    Shameless (Showtime)
    The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
    Mom
    (CBS)
    Baskets (FX)

    LONG SHOTS

    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (The CW)
    Grace and Frankie
    (Netflix)
    Transparent (Amazon)
    Jane the Virgin
    (The CW)
    Fresh Off the Boat (ABC)
    Divorce (HBO)
    One Day at a Time (Netflix)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    The Looming Tower (Hulu)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
    Twin Peaks (Showtime)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Sinner (USA)
    Genius (National Geographic)
    Mosaic (HBO)
    Howards End (Starz)
    American Vandal (Netflix)
    Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Long Road Home (National Geographic)
    American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
    Little Women (PBS)
    Collateral (Netflix)
    The Terror (AMC)
    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alias Grace (Netflix)
    Waco (Paramount Network)
    Unsolved (USA)
    National Treasure: Kiri (Hulu)
    Gunpowder (HBO)
    The Alienist (TNT)

  • Best Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
    Paterno (HBO)
    The Tale (HBO)
    Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams (Amazon)
    Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Flint (Lifetime)
    Notes from the Field (HBO)
    The Child in Time (BBC One)
    A Futile and Stupid Gesture (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cocaine Godmother (Lifetime)
    I Am Elizabeth Smart (Lifetime)
    Story of a Girl (Lifetime)
    George Gently and the New Age (Acorn TV) NEW!

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
    Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)
    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
    J.K. Simmons (Counterpart)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor)
    Donald Sutherland (Trust)
    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Jason Mitchell (The Chi)

    POSSIBLITIES

    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast
    Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter)
    Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath) — podcast
    James Franco (The Deuce) — podcast
    Tim Robbins (Here and Now)
    Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)

    LONG SHOTS

    Dylan Minnette (13 Reasons Why)
    Sam Heughan (Outlander)
    Dan Stevens (Legion)
    Peter Krause (9-1-1)
    Brendan Gleeson (Mr. Mercedes)
    David Duchovny (The X-Files)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Keri Russell (The Americans)
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)
    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Holly Hunter (Here and Now)
    Kerry Washington (Scandal)
    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
    Krysten Ritter (Jessica Jones) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Angela Bassett (9-1-1)
    Christina Hendricks (Good Girls) — podcast

    Taraji P. Henson (Empire) — podcast
    Gillian Anderson (The X-Files)
    Shiri Appleby (UnREAL)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Noah Schnapp (Stranger Things)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)

    Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Noah Emmerich (The Americans)
    Brendan Fraser (Trust)

    POSSIBILITIES

    James Marsden (Westworld)
    Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (The Chi)

    Asia Kate Dillon (Billions)
    Delroy Lindo (The Good Fight)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Richard Schiff (The Good Doctor)
    Hill Harper (The Good Doctor)
    Harris Dickinson (Trust)
    Bobby Cannavale (Mr. Robot)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hilary Swank (Trust)
    Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones)
    Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) — podcast
    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Margo Martindale (Sneaky Pete)
    Anna Torv (Mindhunter)
    Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
    Connie Britton (9-1-1)
    Janet McTeer (Jessica Jones)
    Cush Jumbo (The Good Fight)
    Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)
    Betty Gabriel (Westworld)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mary-Louise Parker (Mr. Mercedes)
    Holland Taylor (Mr. Mercedes)
    Elizabeth Marvel (Homeland)
    Aubrey Plaza (Legion)

    Renee Elise Goldsberry (Altered Carbon)
    Paula Malcomson (Ray Donovan)
    Susan Sarandon (Ray Donovan)
    Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Bill Hader (Barry)
    John Goodman (Roseanne)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jason Bateman (Arrested Development) — podcast
    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)

    Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
    Tracy Morgan (The Last O.G.)
    Ted Danson (The Good Place)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth) — podcast
    Ian Armitage (Young Sheldon)
    Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
    Thomas Haden Church (Divorce)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hank Azaria (Brockmire) — podcast
    Neil Patrick Harris (A Series of Unfortunate Events)
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Timothy Olyphant (Santa Clarita Diet)
    Randall Park (Fresh Off the Boat)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Debra Messing (Will and Grace)
    Alison Brie (GLOW)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Frankie Shaw (SMILF) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Roseanne Barr (Roseanne)
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Minnie Driver (Speechless)
    Emmy Rossum (Shameless)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Tiffany Haddish (The Last O.G.)
    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
    Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)
    Justine Machado (One Day at a Time)
    Tracey Ullmann (Tracey Ullmann's Show)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sutton Foster (Younger)
    Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat)

    Anna Faris (Mom)

    Logan Browning (Dear White People)
    Carrie Brownstein (Portlandia)
    Yara Shahidi (Grown-ish)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Sean Hayes (Will and Grace)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Marc Maron (GLOW) — podcast
    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kumail Nanjiani (Silicon Valley) — podcast
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Will Arnett (Arrested Development)
    Stephen Root (Barry)
    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
    Zach Woods (Silicon Valley)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    Walton Goggins (Vice Principals)
    Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ray Romano (Get Shorty)
    Martin Sheen (Grace and Frankie)
    Sam Waterston (Grace and Frankie)
    Patton Oswalt (A.P. Bio)
    Tony Danza (There's Johnny)
    Tracy Letts (Divorce)
    William Jackson Harper (The Good Place)
    Manny Jacinto (The Good Place)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
    Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne)
    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Sarah Goldberg (Barry)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jessica Walter (Arrested Development)
    Rita Moreno (
    One Day at a Time)
    Sara Gilbert (Roseanne)

    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Rosie O'Donnell (SMILF)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Gaby Hoffman (Transparent)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
    Jennifer Lewis (Black-ish)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
    Molly Shannon (Divorce)

    Kristen Schaal (Last Man on Earth)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
    Al Pacino (Paterno)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jack O'Connell (Godless)
    Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
    Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast
    Matthew Macfadyen (Howards End)
    Evan Peters (American Horror Story: Cult)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jimmy Tatro (American Vandal)
    Taylor Kitsch (Waco)
    Michael Kelly (The Long Road Home)
    Jared Harris (The Terror)
    Will Forte (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Michael Shannon (Waco) — podcast
    Garrett Hedlund (Mosaic)

    LONG SHOTS

    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Child in Time) — podcast
    Daniel Bruhl (The Alienist)
    Kit Harington (Gunpowder)
    Kevin Kline (Present Laughter)
    Billy Crudup (Gypsy)
    Bryan Cranston (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jessica Biel (The Sinner) — podcast
    Hayley Atwell (Howards End) — podcast
    Laura Dern (The Tale)
    Michelle Dockery (Godless)
    Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Regina King (Seven Seconds)
    Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Sharon Stone (Mosaic)
    Queen Latifah (Flint)
    Carey Mulligan (Collateral)
    Cristin Milioti (Black Mirror: USS Callister)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Catherine Zeta-Jones (Cocaine Godmother)
    Anna Paquin (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Kelly Macdonald (The Child in Time)
    Sarah Gadon (Alias Grace)
    Alana Boden (I Am Elizabeth Smart)
    Anna Deavere Smith (Notes from the Field)

    LONG SHOTS

    Maya Hawke (Little Women)
    Sofia Boutella (Fahrenheit 451)
    Carmen Ejogo (The Girlfriend Experience)
    Ryann Shane (Story of a Girl)
    Naomi Watts (Gypsy)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
    Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
    Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
    Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Sam Waterston (Godless)
    Scoot McNairy (Godless)
    Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
    Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
    Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
    Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
    Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Dylan Baker (Little Women)
    Luke Evans (The Alienist)
    John Leguizamo (Waco)
    Jason Ritter (The Tale)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kevin Bacon (Story of a Girl)
    Ciarin Hinds (The Terror)
    Tobias Menzies (The Terror)
    Jimmi Simpson (Unsolved)
    Josh Charles (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Domhnall Gleeson (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Matt Walsh (A Futile and Stupid Gesture) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Merritt Wever (Godless)
    Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
    Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Angela Lansbury (Little Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Naomi Watts (Twin Peaks)
    Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)
    Riley Keough (Paterno)
    Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Patrick Melrose)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wrenn Schmidt (The Looming Tower) NEW
    Philippa Coulthard (Howards End)
    Julia Ormond (Howards End)
    Dakota Fanning (The Alienist)
    Anna Paquin (Alias Grace)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billie Lourd (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Tracey Ullman (Howards End)
    Vera Farmiga (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Julia Garner (Waco)
    Andrea Riseborough (Waco)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)
    At Home with Amy Sedaris (truTV)
    I Love You, America (Hulu) NEW!

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tosh.0 (Comedy Central)
    This Is Not Happening (Comedy Central)
    The Half Hour (Comedy Central)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Whose Line Is It Anyway? (The CW)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Last Week Tonight (HBO)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
    Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) — podcast
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast
    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS) — podcast
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle) — podcast
    The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
    (Comedy Central) — podcast
    Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen (Bravo) — podcast
    Conan (TBS)
    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper (Comedy Central)
    Chelsea (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Desus & Mero (Viceland)
    @midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)
    Talking With Chris Hardwick (AMC)
    Last Call with Carson Daly (NBC)
    The Rundown with Robin Thede (BET) NEW!