Feinberg Forecast: T-Minus One Week Until Nomination Voting

5:48 PM 6/5/2018

by Scott Feinberg

Voting for Emmy nominations goes from June 12 through June 26.

Barry Still 2 Henry Winkler - Publicity - H 2018
Courtesy of HBO

The charts below reflect how THR's awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018 is eligible.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

  • Best Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Game of Thrones (HBO)
    The Handmaid's Tale
    (Hulu)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Crown
    (Netflix)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    Westworld (HBO)
    The Americans (FX)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Homeland (Showtime)
    Killing Eve (BBC America)
    Ray Donovan (Showtime)
    Ozark
    (Netflix)
    The Chi (Showtime)
    Counterpart (Starz)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Good Doctor (ABC)
    Mindhunter (Netflix)
    Trust (FX)
    The Deuce
    (HBO)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billions (Showtime)
    Scandal
    (ABC)
    Legion (FX)
    Outlander (Starz)
    Altered Carbon
    (Netflix)
    Sneaky Pete (Amazon)

  • Best Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Atlanta (FX)
    Barry (HBO)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
    GLOW (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Modern Family (ABC)
    Will and Grace
    (NBC)
    Arrested Development (Netflix)

    Better Things (FX)
    SMILF (Showtime)
    The Last O.G. (TBS)
    The Good Place (NBC)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Insecure (HBO)
    Shameless (Showtime)
    The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
    Mom
    (CBS)
    Baskets (FX)

    LONG SHOTS

    Roseanne (ABC)
    Transparent (Amazon)
    One Day at a Time (Netflix)
    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
    (The CW)
    Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
    Divorce (HBO)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    The Looming Tower (Hulu)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
    Genius (National Geographic)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mosaic (HBO)
    The Sinner
    (USA)
    Twin Peaks (Showtime)
    Alias Grace (Netflix)
    Howards End (Starz)
    Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Long Road Home (National Geographic)
    American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
    American Vandal (Netflix)
    Little Women (PBS)
    Collateral (Netflix)
    The Terror (AMC)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)
    Waco (Paramount Network)
    Unsolved (USA)
    National Treasure: Kiri (Hulu)
    Gunpowder (HBO)
    The Alienist (TNT)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
    The Looming Tower (Hulu)
    Godless (Netflix)
    Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
    Genius (National Geographic)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mosaic (HBO)
    The Sinner
    (USA)
    Twin Peaks (Showtime)
    Alias Grace (Netflix)
    Howards End (Starz)
    Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Long Road Home (National Geographic)
    American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
    American Vandal (Netflix)
    Little Women (PBS)
    Collateral (Netflix)
    The Terror (AMC)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Girlfriend Experience (Starz)
    Waco (Paramount Network)
    Unsolved (USA)
    National Treasure: Kiri (Hulu)
    Gunpowder (HBO)
    The Alienist (TNT)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
    Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)
    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor) — podcast
    Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    J.K. Simmons (Counterpart)
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Donald Sutherland (Trust)
    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Jason Mitchell (The Chi)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast
    Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter)
    James Franco (The Deuce) — podcast
    Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath) — podcast
    Brendan Gleeson (Mr. Mercedes)

    LONG SHOTS

    Dylan Minnette (13 Reasons Why)
    Peter Krause (9-1-1)
    Sam Heughan (Outlander)
    Dan Stevens (Legion)
    Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Keri Russell (The Americans)
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)
    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
    Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce)
    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Krysten Ritter (Jessica Jones) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Kerry Washington (Scandal)
    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)

    Angela Bassett (9-1-1)

    Christina Hendricks (Good Girls) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Noah Emmerich (The Americans)
    Noah Schnapp (Stranger Things)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)

    Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Richard Schiff (The Good Doctor)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Brendan Fraser (Trust)
    James Marsden (Westworld)

    Asia Kate Dillon (Billions)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Delroy Lindo (The Good Fight)
    Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (The Chi)
    Harris Dickinson (Trust)
    Bobby Cannavale (Mr. Robot)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones)
    Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) — podcast
    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Holly Taylor (The Americans)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Hilary Swank (Trust)

     

    POSSIBILITIES

    Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Connie Britton (9-1-1)
    Anna Torv (Mindhunter)
    Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)
    Cush Jumbo (The Good Fight)

    LONG SHOTS

    Margo Martindale (Sneaky Pete)
    Mary-Louise Parker (Mr. Mercedes)

    Holland Taylor (Mr. Mercedes)
    Elizabeth Marvel (Homeland)
    Aubrey Plaza (Legion)

    Paula Malcomson (Ray Donovan)
    Janet McTeer (Jessica Jones)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Bill Hader (Barry)
    Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)
    Jason Bateman (Arrested Development) — podcast

    Ted Danson (The Good Place)
    Tracy Morgan (The Last O.G.)
    John Goodman (Roseanne)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

     

    POSSIBILITIES

    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth) — podcast
    Ian Armitage (Young Sheldon)
    Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
    Thomas Haden Church (Divorce)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hank Azaria (Brockmire) — podcast
    Neil Patrick Harris (A Series of Unfortunate Events)
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Timothy Olyphant (Santa Clarita Diet)
    Randall Park (Fresh Off the Boat)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Alison Brie (GLOW)
    Debra Messing (Will and Grace)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Frankie Shaw (SMILF) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Minnie Driver (Speechless)
    Emmy Rossum (Shameless)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Tiffany Haddish (The Last O.G.)
    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
    Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)
    Tracey Ullmann (Tracey Ullmann's Show)

    LONG SHOTS

    Roseanne Barr (Roseanne)
    Sutton Foster (Younger)
    Justine Machado (One Day at a Time)
    Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat)
    Anna Faris (Mom)
    Logan Browning (Dear White People)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Louie Anderson (Baskets)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sean Hayes (Will and Grace)
    Marc Maron (GLOW) — podcast
    Stephen Root (Barry)
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Will Arnett (Arrested Development)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
    Kumail Nanjiani (Silicon Valley) — podcast
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

    LONG SHOTS

    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)
    Zach Woods (Silicon Valley)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    Walton Goggins (Vice Principals)
    Ray Romano (Get Shorty)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Sarah Goldberg (Barry)

    Jessica Walter (Arrested Development)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Laurie Metcalf (Roseanne)
    Rita Moreno (
    One Day at a Time)

    Rosie O'Donnell (SMILF)
    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sara Gilbert (Roseanne)
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Jennifer Lewis (Black-ish)
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)

    LONG SHOTS

    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Gaby Hoffman (Transparent)
    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Molly Shannon (Divorce)

    Kristen Schaal (Last Man on Earth)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Al Pacino (Paterno)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
    Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jack O'Connell (Godless)
    Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
    Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast
    Matthew Macfadyen (Howards End)
    Jimmy Tatro (American Vandal)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michael Kelly (The Long Road Home)
    Taylor Kitsch (Waco)
    Jared Harris (The Terror)
    Evan Peters (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Will Forte (A Futile and Stupid Gesture)
    Michael Shannon (Waco) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Kit Harington (Gunpowder)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Child in Time) — podcast
    Daniel Bruhl (The Alienist)
    Kevin Kline (Present Laughter)
    Billy Crudup (Gypsy)
    Bryan Cranston (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jessica Biel (The Sinner) — podcast
    Hayley Atwell (Howards End) — podcast
    Laura Dern (The Tale)
    Michelle Dockery (Godless)
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sarah Gadon (Alias Grace)
    Regina King (Seven Seconds)

    Edie Falco (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
    Cristin Milioti (Black Mirror: USS Callister)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Anna Deavere Smith (Notes from the Field)
    Carey Mulligan (Collateral)
    Catherine Zeta-Jones (Cocaine Godmother)
    Anna Paquin (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alana Boden (I Am Elizabeth Smart)
    Kelly Macdonald (The Child in Time)
    Maya Hawke (Little Women)
    Sofia Boutella (Fahrenheit 451)
    Carmen Ejogo (The Girlfriend Experience)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
    Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
    Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
    Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Sam Waterston (Godless)
    Scoot McNairy (Godless)
    Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
    Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
    Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
    Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
    Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Dylan Baker (Little Women)
    Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
    Jason Ritter (The Tale)

    LONG SHOTS

    Luke Evans (The Alienist)
    Kevin Bacon (Story of a Girl)
    Ciarin Hinds (The Terror)
    Tobias Menzies (The Terror)
    John Leguizamo (Waco)
    Josh Charles (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Merritt Wever (Godless)
    Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
    Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
    Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
    Sharon Stone (Mosaic)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)
    Anna Paquin (Alias Grace)
    Riley Keough (Paterno)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (Patrick Melrose)
    Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
    Naomi Watts (Twin Peaks)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Queen Latifah (Flint)
    Wrenn Schmidt (The Looming Tower)
    Philippa Coulthard (Howards End)
    Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar)
    Julia Ormond (Howards End)
    Dakota Fanning (The Alienist)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billie Lourd (American Horror Story: Cult)
    Tracey Ullman (Howards End)
    Vera Farmiga (Philip K. Dick's Electric Dreams)
    Julia Garner (Waco)
    Andrea Riseborough (Waco)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)
    At Home with Amy Sedaris (truTV)
    I Love You, America (Hulu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tosh.0 (Comedy Central)
    This Is Not Happening (Comedy Central)
    The Half Hour (Comedy Central)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Whose Line Is It Anyway? (The CW)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Last Week Tonight (HBO)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast
    The Late Late Show with James Corden
    (CBS) — podcast
    Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee
    (Crackle) — podcast
    The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
    (Comedy Central) — podcast
    Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen (Bravo) — podcast
    Conan (TBS)
    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper (Comedy Central)
    Desus & Mero (Viceland)

    LONG SHOTS

    Chelsea (Netflix)
    @midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)
    Talking With Chris Hardwick (AMC)
    Last Call with Carson Daly (NBC)
    The Rundown with Robin Thede (BET)