Feinberg Forecast: Post-SAG Awards Read of the Oscar Race

1:59 PM 1/28/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessments of all 24 categories.

'Free Solo'
'Free Solo'
Jimmy Chin/National Geographic

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, AFID=AFI Docs, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    'Black Panther'
    'Black Panther'
    Matt Kennedy/Marvel Studios

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron and Gabriela Rodriguez)
    Green Book (Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Charles B. Wessler and Nick Vallelonga)
    Black Panther
    (Kevin Feige)
    A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)
    BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King)
    The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos)
    Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)

  • Best Director

    Alfonso Cuaron on the set of 'Roma'
    Alfonso Cuaron on the set of 'Roma'
    Carlos Somonte

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
    Adam McKay (Vice)
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

  • Best Actor

    Christian Bale in 'Vice'
    Christian Bale in 'Vice'
    Annapurna Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

  • Best Actress

    Melissa McCarthy in 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    Melissa McCarthy in 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    Mary Cybulski/20th Century Fox

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Glenn Close (The Wife)
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Sam Elliott in 'A Star Is Born'
    Sam Elliott in 'A Star Is Born'
    Clay Enos/Warner Bros.

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
    Sam Rockwell (Vice)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams in 'Vice'
    Amy Adams in 'Vice'
    Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite)
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    'BlacKkKlansman'
    'BlacKkKlansman'
    Courtesy of Focus Features

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen and Joel Coen)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    'Green Book'
    'Green Book'
    Courtesy of Universal Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
    The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Vice (Adam McKay)
    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'Mirai'
    'Mirai'
    Courtesy of GKIDS

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller)
    Incredibles 2
    (Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer)
    Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson)
    Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'Of Fathers and Sons'
    'Of Fathers and Sons'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    RBG (Julie Cohen and Betsy West)
    Free Solo
    (Jimmy Chin, Shannon Dill, Evan Hayes and Chai Vasarhelyi)
    Minding the Gap (Bing Liu and Diane Quon)
    Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert)
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim and RaMell Ross)

  • Best Foreign-Language Film

    'Capernaum'
    'Capernaum'
    Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Roma (Mexico)
    Cold War (Poland)
    Shoplifters (Japan)
    Never Look Away
    (Germany)
    Capernaum
    (Lebanon)

  • Best Cinematography

    'The Favourite'
    'The Favourite'
    Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
    The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
    Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
    Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)

  • Best Costume Design

    'The Ballad of Buster Scruggs'
    'The Ballad of Buster Scruggs'

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)
    The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

  • Best Film Editing

    'BlacKkKlansman
    'BlacKkKlansman
    Courtesy of Focus Features

    BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)
    The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
    Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
    Vice (Hank Corwin)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    'Border'
    'Border'
    Courtesy of Neon

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks)
    Border (Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer)

  • Best Original Score

    'If Beale Street Could Talk'
    'If Beale Street Could Talk'
    Tatum Mangus/Annapurna Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
    BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
    Mary Poppins Returns
    (Marc Shaiman)
    Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)

  • Best Original Song

    'RBG'
    'RBG'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
    Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther)
    Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith
    Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Solana Rowe and Anthony Tiffith

    "I'll Fight" (R.B.G)
    Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

    "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Music and Lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

  • Best Production Design

    'First Man'
    'First Man'
    Courtesy of Universal Pictures; Courtesy of Dreamworks Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
    Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)
    The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
    First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)
    Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)

  • Best Sound Editing

    'First Man'
    'First Man'
    Courtesy of Universal Pictures and DreamWorks Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone)
    Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker)
    Roma (Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay)
    First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
    A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl)

  • Best Sound Mixing

    'A Star Is Born'
    'A Star Is Born'
    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali)
    Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin)
    Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and Jose Antonio Garcia)
    First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis)

  • Best Visual Effects

    'Christopher Robin'
    'Christopher Robin'
    Courtesy of Disney

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    First Man (Ian Hunter, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm)
    Avengers: Infinity War
    (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Dan Sudick)
    Ready Player One
    (Matthew E. Butler, Grady Cofer, Roger Guyett and David Shirk)
    Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy)
    Christopher Robin (Chris Corbould, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Christopher Lawrence)

  • Best Animated Short

    'Late Afternoon'
    'Late Afternoon'
    Courtesy of Cartoon Saloon

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bao (Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb)
    Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)
    One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas)
    Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden and David Fine)
    Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco)

  • Best Documentary Short

    'A Night at the Garden'
    'A Night at the Garden'
    Marshall Curry Productions; Field of Vision

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Period. End of Sentence. (Melissa Berton and Rayka Zehtabchi)
    A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)
    Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser)
    End Game (Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman)
    Black Sheep (Jonathan Chinn and Ed Perkins)

  • Best Live-Action Short

    'Marguerite'
    'Marguerite'
    Courtesy of Jameson Cinefest

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Marguerite (Marianne Farley and Marie-Helene Panisset)
    Detainment  (Vincent Lambe and Darren Maho)
    Fauve (Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon)
    Skin (Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman)
    Mother (María del Puy Alvarado and Rodrigo Sorogoyen)