Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape a Week Before Final Voting Begins

8:52 PM 2/6/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessments of all 24 categories.

'Hale County This Morning, This Evening'
'Hale County This Morning, This Evening'
Courtesy of Sundance Institute

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, AFID=AFI Docs, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    'Green Book'
    'Green Book'
    Patti Perret/Universal

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron and Gabriela Rodriguez) — podcast
    Green Book (Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga and Charles B. Wessler)
    BlacKkKlansman (Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick and Jordan Peele) — podcast/podcast
    Black Panther
    (Kevin Feige)
    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber and Lynette Howell Taylor)
    The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King)
    Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)

  • Best Director

    Alfonso Cuaron on the set of 'Roma'
    Alfonso Cuaron on the set of 'Roma'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) — podcast
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

  • Best Actor

    Willem Dafoe in 'At Eternity's Gate'
    Willem Dafoe in 'At Eternity's Gate'
    Lily Gavin

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    Lady Gaga in 'A Star Is Born'
    Lady Gaga in 'A Star Is Born'
    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) — podcast
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Sam Rockwell in 'Vice'
    Sam Rockwell in 'Vice'
    Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) — podcast
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Regina King in 'If Beale Street Could Talk'
    Regina King in 'If Beale Street Could Talk'
    Annapurna Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Amy Adams (Vice) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    Mary Cybulski/20th Century Fox

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott) — podcast
    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) — podcast
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen and Joel Coen)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    'First Reformed'
    'First Reformed'
    Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
    The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) — podcast
    Vice (Adam McKay) — podcast
    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse'
    'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse'

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller)
    Incredibles 2
    (Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer)
    Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson)
    Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'Minding the Gap'
    'Minding the Gap'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    RBG (Julie Cohen and Betsy West)
    Free Solo
    (Jimmy Chin, Shannon Dill, Evan Hayes and Chai Vasarhelyi)
    Minding the Gap (Bing Liu and Diane Quon)
    Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert)
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim and RaMell Ross)

  • Best Foreign-Language Film

    'Shoplifters'
    'Shoplifters'
    Courtesy of Magnolia Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Roma (Mexico)
    Cold War (Poland)
    Shoplifters (Japan)
    Never Look Away
    (Germany)
    Capernaum
    (Lebanon)

  • Best Cinematography

    'Cold War'
    'Cold War'
    Courtesy of Amazon Studios

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) — podcast
    Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
    Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)

  • Best Costume Design

    'Mary Poppins Returns'
    'Mary Poppins Returns'
    Courtesy of Disney

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Favourite (Sandy Powell) — podcast
    Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell) — podcast
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)

  • Best Film Editing

    'The Favourite'
    'The Favourite'
    Yorgos Lanthimos/Twentieth Century Fox

    The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
    Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
    BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)
    Vice (Hank Corwin)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    'Mary Queen of Scots'
    'Mary Queen of Scots'
    Liam Daniel/Focus Features

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks)
    Border (Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer)

  • Best Original Score

    'BlacKkKlansman'
    'BlacKkKlansman'
    Courtesy of Focus Features

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
    Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
    Mary Poppins Returns
    (Marc Shaiman)
    Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)

  • Best Original Song

    'A Star Is Born'
    'A Star Is Born'
    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born) — podcast
    Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther)
    Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith
    Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Solana Rowe and Anthony Tiffith

    "I'll Fight" (R.B.G) — podcast
    Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

    "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Music and Lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

  • Best Production Design

    'Black Panther'
    'Black Panther'
    Courtesy of Marvel Studios

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
    Black Panther
    (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
    Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)
    Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)
    First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)

  • Best Sound Editing

    'A Quiet Place'
    'A Quiet Place'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bohemian Rhapsody (Nina Hartstone and John Warhurst)
    Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker and Benjamin A. Burtt)
    Roma (Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay)
    A Quiet Place (Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn)
    First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)

  • Best Sound Mixing

    'First Man'
    'First Man'
    Daniel McFadden/Universal

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bohemian Rhapsody (John Casali, Tim Cavagin and Paul Massey)
    A Star Is Born (Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean Zupancic)
    Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Peter Devlin and Brandon Proctor)
    Roma (Jose Antonio Garcia, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay)
    First Man (Mary H. Ellis, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montaño and Jon Taylor)

  • Best Visual Effects

    'Solo: A Star Wars Story'
    'Solo: A Star Wars Story'
    Courtesy of Lucasfilm Ltd.

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    First Man (Ian Hunter, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm)
    Avengers: Infinity War
    (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Dan Sudick)
    Ready Player One
    (Matthew E. Butler, Grady Cofer, Roger Guyett and David Shirk)
    Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy)
    Christopher Robin (Chris Corbould, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Christopher Lawrence)

  • Best Animated Short

    'Weekends'
    'Weekends'
    Courtesy of Trevor Jimenez

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bao (Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb)
    Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)
    One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas)
    Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden and David Fine)
    Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco)

  • Best Documentary Short

    'Lifeboat'
    'Lifeboat'
    Courtesy of RYOT and Spin Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Period. End of Sentence. (Melissa Berton and Rayka Zehtabchi)
    A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)
    End Game (Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman)
    Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser)
    Black Sheep (Jonathan Chinn and Ed Perkins)

  • Best Live-Action Short

    'Skin'
    'Skin'
    Courtesy of New Native Pictures

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Marguerite (Marianne Farley and Marie-Helene Panisset)
    Skin (Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman)
    Detainment (Vincent Lambe and Darren Maho)
    Fauve (Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon)
    Mother (María del Puy Alvarado and Rodrigo Sorogoyen)