Feinberg Forecast: Updated Projections As Emmy Nomination Voting Continues

8:00 AM 7/9/2020

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessment of which contenders are likeliest to land nominations in 24 categories.

Stephan James and Janelle Monae in 'Homecoming'
Stephan James and Janelle Monae in 'Homecoming'
Ai Goldstein

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott's best attempt to predict the behavior of the Television Academy, not his personal preferences. He arrives at the standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, awards ceremonies that precede the Emmys (e.g. the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe and SAG awards) and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments, and more categories may be added.

  • Best Drama Series

    'Pose'
    'Pose'
    Michael Parmelee/FX

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Succession (HBO)
    Ozark (Netflix)
    The Crown (Netflix)
    Better Call Saul (AMC)
    The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
    The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    Westworld (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Killing Eve (BBC America)
    Pose (FX)
    Big Little Lies (HBO)
    The Outsider (HBO)
    Homeland (Showtime)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    Euphoria (HBO)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Black Mirror (Netflix)
    The Good Fight (CBS All Access)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Homecoming (Amazon)
    The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    Hunters (Amazon)
    Luther (BBC America)

    LONG SHOTS

    David Makes Man (OWN)
    On Becoming a God in Central Florida (Showtime)
    Yellowstone (Paramount Network)
    Outlander (Starz)
    Mindhunter (Netflix)
    Billions (Showtime)
    My Brilliant Friend: The Story of a New Name (HBO)

  • Best Comedy Series

    'Better Things'
    'Better Things'
    Bonnie Osborne/FX

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Schitt's Creek (Pop)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Dead to Me (Netflix)
    The Good Place (NBC)
    Insecure (HBO)
    Better Things (FX)
    Ramy (Hulu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
    Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (NBC)
    What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
    The Great (Hulu)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    The Politician (Netflix)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Dave (FXX)
    Modern Family (ABC)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Run (HBO)
    Never Have I Ever (Netflix)
    Dickinson (Apple TV+)
    Baskets (FX)
    Space Force (Netflix)
    Shameless (Showtime)
    Sex Education (Netflix)
    GLOW (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Upload (Amazon)
    Awkwafina Is Nora from Queens (Comedy Central)
    Modern Love (Amazon)
    Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet (Apple TV+)
    #BlackAF (Netflix)
    High Fidelity (Hulu)
    Little America (Apple TV+)
    The Righteous Gemstones (HBO)
    Love Life (HBO Max)

  • Best Limited Series

    'Hollywood'
    'Hollywood'
    Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Watchmen (HBO)
    Unbelievable (Netflix)
    Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
    The Plot Against America (HBO)
    Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hollywood (Netflix)
    Unorthodox (Netflix)
    Normal People (Hulu)
    I Know This Much Is True (HBO)
    The Loudest Voice (Showtime)
    Years and Years (HBO)
    Devs (FX on Hulu)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Catherine the Great (HBO)
    Defending Jacob (Apple TV+)
    The Eddy (Netflix)
    Mrs. Fletcher (HBO)
    Quiz (AMC)
    ZeroZeroZero (Amazon)
    The Spy (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Belgravia (Epix)
    American Horror Story: 1984 (FX)
    Our Boys (HBO)
    Castle Rock (Hulu)
    Barkskins (NatGeo)
    The Terror (AMC)
    Miracle Workers (TBS)

  • Best Television Movie

    'Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend'
    'Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend'

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bad Education (HBO)
    El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (Netflix)
    The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel (Lifetime)
    American Son (Netflix)
    Patsy and Loretta (Lifetime)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend (Netflix)
    Transparent: Musicale Finale (Amazon)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Togo (Disney+)
    Blow the Man Down (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Selah and the Spades (Amazon)
    Stolen by My Mother: The Kamiyah Mobley Story (Lifetime)
    I Was Lorena Bobbitt (Lifetime)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    Ben Mendelsohn on 'The Outsider'
    Ben Mendelsohn on 'The Outsider'
    Bob Mahoney/HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
    Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
    Billy Porter (Pose) — podcast
    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Brian Cox (Succession)
    Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
    Ben Mendelsohn (The Outsider)
    Aaron Paul (Westworld)
    Steve Carell (The Morning Show) — podcast
    Al Pacino (Hunters) — podcast
    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Patrick Stewart (Star Trek: Picard)
    Idris Elba (Luther) — podcast
    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian)
    Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
    Forest Whitaker (Godfather of Harlem)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stephan James (Homecoming) — podcast
    Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter)
    John Krasinski (Jack Ryan) — podcast
    Matt Bomer (The Sinner)
    Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
    John Malkovich (The New Pope)
    Sam Heughan (Outlander)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    Claire Danes on 'Homeland'
    Claire Danes on 'Homeland'
    Sifeddine Elamine/SHOWTIME

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Olivia Colman (The Crown) — podcast
    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
    Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show) — podcast
    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Claire Danes (Homeland) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies) — podcast
    Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Zendaya (Euphoria)
    Janelle Monáe (Homecoming) — podcast
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder)
    Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida)
    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mj Rodriguez (Pose)
    Ruth Wilson (Luther)
    Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
    Angela Bassett (911)
    Kristen Bell (Veronica Mars)
    Dafne Keen (His Dark Materials)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    Mark Duplass on 'The Morning Show'
    Mark Duplass on 'The Morning Show'
    Apple TV+

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
    Kieran Culkin (Succession)
    Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Tom Pelphrey (Ozark)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
    Josh O'Connor (The Crown)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
    Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies)
    Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tony Dalton (Better Call Saul)
    Nicholas Braun (Succession)
    Alan Ruck (Succession)
    Adam Scott (Big Little Lies)
    Ben Daniels (The Crown)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)
    BD Wong (Mr. Robot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Delroy Lindo (The Good Fight)
    Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Alan Alda (Ray Donovan) — podcast
    Vincent Cassel (Westworld)
    Jude Law (The New Pope)
    Chris Messina (The Sinner)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    Thandie Newton on 'Westworld'
    Thandie Newton on 'Westworld'
    John P. Johnson/HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
    Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies) — podcast
    Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
    Cynthia Erivo (The Outsider) — podcast
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sarah Snook (Succession)
    Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve)
    Janet McTeer (Ozark)
    Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Tessa Thompson (Westworld)
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw (The Morning Show)
    Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Hong Chau (Homecoming)
    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Mare Winningham (The Outsider)
    Julianne Nicholson (The Outsider)
    Zoe Kravitz (Big Little Lies)
    Shailene Woodley (Big Little Lies)

    LONG SHOTS

    Phylicia Rashad (David Makes Man)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Hunter Schafer (Euphoria)
    Cush Jumbo (The Good Fight)
    Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)
    Holly Hunter (Succession)
    J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    Kayvan Novak, left, and Matt Berry, right, on 'What We Do in the Shadows'
    Kayvan Novak, left, and Matt Berry, right, on 'What We Do in the Shadows'
    Russ Martin/FX

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Ted Danson (The Good Place) — podcast
    Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)
    Ben Platt (The Politician) — podcast
    Dave Burd (Dave)
    Rob McElhenney (Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet)
    Domhnall Gleeson (Run)
    Steve Carell (Space Force) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Bashir Salahuddin (Sherman's Showcase)
    Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast
    Asa Butterfield (Sex Education)
    Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
    Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)

    LONG SHOTS

    John Goodman (The Conners)
    Hugh Laurie (Avenue 5)
    Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)
    Danny McBride (The Righteous Gemstones)
    Paul Rudd (Living With Yourself)
    Martin Freeman (Breeders)
    Walton Goggins (The Unicorn)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    Robin Thede on 'A Black Lady Sketch Show'
    Robin Thede on 'A Black Lady Sketch Show'
    Courtesy of HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
    Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jane Levy (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)
    Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Elle Fanning (The Great)
    Merritt Wever (Run)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Alison Brie (GLOW) — podcast
    Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
    Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)
    Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) — podcast
    Awkwafina (Nora From Queens) — podcast
    Maitreyi Ramakrishnan (Never Have I Ever)

    LONG SHOTS

    Zoe Kravitz (High Fidelity)
    Daisy Haggard (Breeders)
    Charlotte Nicdao (Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet)
    Anna Kendrick (Love Life)
    Jonica "Jojo" T. Gibbs (Twenties)
    Abby McEnany (Work in Progress)
    Aidy Bryant (Shrill) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    Andrew Scott on 'Modern Love'
    Andrew Scott on 'Modern Love'
    Christopher Saunders/Amazon Studios

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)
    Dan Levy (Schitt's Creek)
    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Sterling K. Brown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Peter Gallagher (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)
    Mahershala Ali (Ramy) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
    Chris Elliott (Schitt's Creek)
    Noah Reid (Schitt's Creek)
    Leroy McClain (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kevin Pollak (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Jay Ellis (Insecure)

    LONG SHOTS

    Paul Reiser (The Kominsky Method)
    Marc Maron (GLOW) — podcast
    GaTa (Dave)
    Andrew Scott (Modern Love)
    John Goodman (The Righteous Gemstones)
    Walton Goggins (The Righteous Gemstones)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Hiam Abbass on 'Ramy'
    Hiam Abbass on 'Ramy'
    Hulu

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Annie Murphy (Schitt's Creek)
    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Emily Hampshire (Schitt's Creek)
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)

    MAJOR THREATS

    D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place)
    Hiam Abbass (Ramy)
    Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
    Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)
    Jameela Jamil (The Good Place)
    Gillian Anderson (Sex Education)
    Lauren Graham (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)
    Mary Steenburgen (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Lisa Kudrow (Space Force)
    Laurie Metcalf (The Conners)
    Jane Krakowski (Dickinson)
    Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
    Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)

    LONG SHOTS

    Archie Panjabi (Run)
    Penelope Wilton (After Life)
    Tina Fey (Modern Love)
    Anne Hathaway (Modern Love)
    Lisa Edelstein (The Kominsky Method)
    Nancy Travis (The Kominsky Method)
    Jane Seymour (The Kominsky Method)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Rory Kinnear on 'Years and Years'
    Rory Kinnear on 'Years and Years'
    Courtesy of HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much Is True)
    Hugh Jackman (Bad Education) — podcast
    Aaron Paul (El Camino)
    Jeremy Irons (Watchmen)
    Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Paul Mescal (Normal People)
    Jeremy Pope (Hollywood)
    Chris Evans (Defending Jacob) — podcast
    Andre Holland (The Eddy)
    Sacha Baron Cohen (The Spy) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Nick Offerman (Devs)
    David Corenswet (Hollywood)
    Morgan Spector (The Plot Against America)
    Rory Kinnear (Years and Years)
    Matthew Macfadyen (Quiz)

    LONG SHOTS

    Anthony Mackie (Black Mirror: Striking Vipers)
    Willem Dafoe (Togo) — podcast
    Jason Segel (Dispatches From Elsewhere) — podcast
    David Thewlis (Barkskins)
    Woody Harrelson (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Shira Haas on 'Unorthodox'
    Shira Haas on 'Unorthodox'
    Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America)
    Regina King (Watchmen)
    Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)
    Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable) — podcast
    Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Reese Witherspoon (Little Fires Everywhere) — podcast
    Aunjanue Ellis (The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel) — podcast
    Shira Haas (Unorthodox)
    Daisy Edgar-Jones (Normal People)
    Zoe Kazan (The Plot Against America)
    Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kerry Washington (American Son) — podcast
    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend)
    Kathryn Hahn (Mrs. Fletcher)
    Jessie Mueller (Patsy and Loretta)
    Megan Hilty (Patsy and Loretta)
    Judith Light (Transparent: Musicale Finale) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Sonoya Mizuno (Devs)
    Sian Clifford (Quiz)
    Niecy Nash (Stolen by My Mother: The Kamiyah Mobley Story)
    Michelle Dockery (Defending Jacob)
    Viola Davis (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)
    Marisa Tomei (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Tahar Rahim on 'The Eddy'
    Tahar Rahim on 'The Eddy'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jim Parsons (Hollywood)
    John Turturro (The Plot Against America) — podcast
    Tim Blake Nelson (Watchmen)
    Jesse Plemons (El Camino) — podcast
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend)
    Darren Criss (Hollywood) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Watchmen)
    Michael Sheen (Quiz)
    Tahar Rahim (The Eddy)
    Joe Mantello (Hollywood) — podcast
    Dylan McDermott (Hollywood)
    Ray Romano (Bad Education)

    POSSIBILITIES

    John Slattery (Mrs. America)
    Jason Clarke (Catherine the Great)
    Joshua Jackson (Little Fires Everywhere)
    Jake Picking (Hollywood)
    Daniel Radcliffe (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend)
    Jon Hamm (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ike Barinholtz (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)
    Asante Blackk (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)

    Richard E. Grant (Dispatches From Elsewhere) — podcast
    Jharrel Jerome (Selah and the Spades)
    Jay Duplass (Transparent: Musicale Finale)
    Jaeden Martell (Defending Jacob)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Hong Chau on 'Watchmen'
    Hong Chau on 'Watchmen'
    Mark Hill/HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
    Jean Smart (Watchmen)
    Rose Byrne (Mrs. America)
    Sarah Paulson (Mrs. America)
    Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America)
    Tracey Ullman (Mrs. America)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Margo Martindale (Mrs. America)
    Elizabeth Banks (Mrs. America)
    Allison Janney (Bad Education) — podcast
    Hong Chau (Watchmen)
    Winona Ryder (The Plot Against America)
    Sienna Miller (The Loudest Voice)
    Naomi Watts (The Loudest Voice)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Patti LuPone (Hollywood) — podcast
    Holland Taylor (Hollywood)
    Rosie O'Donnell (I Know This Much Is True)
    Melissa Leo (I Know This Much Is True)
    Kathryn Hahn (I Know This Much Is True)
    Tiffany Boone (Little Fires Everywhere)
    Lexi Underwood (Little Fires Everywhere)

    LONG SHOTS

    Emma Thompson (Years and Years)
    Sally Field (Dispatches From Elsewhere) — podcast
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend)
    Amandla Stenberg (The Eddy)
    Alison Pill (Devs)
    Tiffany Haddish (Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    'Sherman's Showcase'
    'Sherman's Showcase'
    AMC

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
    A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) — podcast (Robin Thede)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    At Home With Amy Sedaris (truTV)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Iliza Shlesinger Sketch Show (Netflix)
    Sherman's Showcase (IFC)
    Tiffany Haddish Presents: They Ready (Netflix)
    Astronomy Club: The Sketch Show (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Degenerates (Netflix)
    Alternatino With Arturo Castro (Comedy Central)
    Tosh.0
    (Comedy Central)

    LONG SHOTS

    Crank Yankers (Comedy Central)
    Comedy Central Stand Up Presents (Comedy Central)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    'The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon'
    'The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon'
    NBC

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
    The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    The Late Late Show With James Corden
    (CBS) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast
    The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
    (Comedy Central) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Some Good News (YouTube) — podcast (John Krasinski)
    Full Frontal With Samantha Bee
    (TBS) — podcast
    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
    (NBC) — podcast
    Real Time With Bill Maher
    (HBO) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast
    Conan (TBS) — podcast
    Patriot Act With Hasan Minhaj
    (Netflix)
    Desus & Mero
    (Showtime) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    A Little Late With Lilly Singh (NBC)
    Watch What Happens Live With Andy Cohen
    (Bravo) — podcast
    Lights Out With David Spade (Comedy Central)
    Rough Draft with Reza Aslan (Topic)

  • Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

    'Conan Without Borders: Ghana'
    'Conan Without Borders: Ghana'
    Courtesy of Conaco

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones (Netflix)
    Hannah Gadsby: Douglas (Netflix) — podcast (Hannah Gadsby)
    Homefest: James Corden’s Late Late Show Special (CBS) — podcast (James Corden)
    Jerry Seinfeld: 23 Hours to Kill (Netflix) — podcast (Jerry Seinfeld)
    The Kennedy Center Honors (PBS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    A Parks and Recreation Special (NBC)
    Graduate Together: America Honors the High School Class of 2020 (syndicated)
    Let's Go Crazy: The Grammy Salute to Prince (CBS)
    Ben Platt: Live from Radio City Music Hall (Netflix) — podcast (Ben Platt)
    AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Denzel Washington (TNT) — podcast (Denzel Washington)
    Taylor Swift City of Lover Concert Special (ABC)
    Conan Without Borders: Ghana (TBS) — podcast (Conan O'Brien)
    Arsenio Hall: Smart & Classy (Netflix)
    Aziz Ansari: Right Now (Netflix) — podcast (Aziz Ansari)
    Ramy Youssef: Feelings (HBO)
    The Comedy Central Roast of Alec Baldwin (Comedy Central)
    John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch (Netflix)
    Patton Oswalt: I Love Everything (Netflix)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Much Ado About Nothing (Great Performances) (PBS)
    Seth Meyers: Lobby Baby (Netflix) — podcast (Seth Meyers)
    Dave Chappelle: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor (PBS)
    Garth Brooks: Gershwin Prize for Popular Song (PBS)
    Leslie Jones: Time Machine (Netflix)
    Jim Gaffigan: Quality Time (Amazon)
    Lil Rel Howery: Live in Crenshaw (HBO)
    Ilana Glazer: The Planet Is Burning (Amazon)
    Jenny Slate: Stage Fright (Netflix)
    Michelle Wolf: Joke Show (Netflix)
    Tiffany Haddish: Black Mitzvah (Netflix)
    Saturday Night Seder (SaturdayNightSeder.com)
    Middleditch & Schwartz (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Disney Family Singalong, Vol. II (ABC)
    The Disney Family Singalong (ABC)
    Dan Soder: Son of a Gary (HBO)
    Gary Gulman: The Great Depresh (HBO)
    Savage X Fenty Show (Amazon)
    The Kacey Musgraves Christmas Show (Amazon)
    Marc Maron: End Times Fun (Netflix) — podcast (Marc Maron)
    Rob Delaney: Jackie (Amazon)
    Holidays With the Houghs (NBC)
    Pete Davidson: Alive from New York (Netflix)
    Brad Paisley Thinks He's Special (ABC)
    Alice Wetterlund: My Mama Is A Human and So Am I (Amazon)
    Daniel Sloss: X (HBO)
    Jimmy O. Yang: Good Deal (Amazon)
    Take Me to the World: A Sondheim 90th Birthday Celebration (Broadway.com)

  • Best Variety Special (Live)

    'The 73rd Tony Awards'
    'The 73rd Tony Awards'
    Theo Wargo/Getty Images

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira (CBS) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
    The Oscars (ABC)
    The 77th Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
    The 73rd Tony Awards (CBS) — podcast (James Corden)
    Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times (ABC) — podcast (Norman Lear) & podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)

    MAJOR THREATS

    One World: Together at Home (syndicated)
    The 62nd Grammy Awards (CBS)
    Garth & Trisha Live! (CBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Little Mermaid Live! (ABC)
    Fox Presents the iHeart Living Room Concert for America (Fox)

    LONG SHOTS

    Dick Clark's New Years Rockin' Eve 2019 With Ryan Seacrest (ABC) — podcast (Ryan Seacrest)
    Yellowstone Live (NatGeo)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series

    'Serengeti'
    'Serengeti'
    Courtesy of Subject

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Last Dance (ESPN)
    Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness (Netflix)
    Hillary (Hulu) — podcast (Hillary Clinton)
    Country Music (PBS) — podcast (Ken Burns)
    McMillions (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Cosmos: Possible Worlds (NatGeo)
    Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich (Netflix)
    Dirty Money (Netflix)
    The Trials of Gabriel Fernandez (Netflix)
    Serengeti (Discovery)
    The Innocence Files (Netflix)
    Atlanta's Missing and Murdered: The Lost Children (HBO)
    Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates (Netflix) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim & Bill Gates)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Visible: Out on Television (Apple TV+)
    Don’t F**k With Cats: Hunting an Internet Killer
    (Netflix)
    Terrence McNally: Every Act of Life (PBS)
    Trial By Media (Netflix)
    Home (Apple TV+)
    The Last Narc (Amazon)
    Shangri-La (Showtime)
    Murder in the Bayou (Showtime)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Devil Next Door (Netflix)
    The Imagineering Story (Disney+)
    How to Fix a Drug Scandal (Netflix)
    The Family (Netflix)
    Ted Bundy: Falling for a Killer (Amazon)
    Free Meek (Amazon)
    Killer Inside: The Mind of Aaron Hernandez (Netflix)
    Regular Heroes (Amazon)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special

    'The Apollo'
    'The Apollo'
    Courtesy of HBO

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Becoming (Netflix)
    Natalie Wood: What Remains Behind (HBO)
    The Apollo (HBO)
    Beastie Boys Story (Apple TV+)
    The Black Godfather (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (CNN)
    St. Louis Superman (MTV)
    The Great Hack (Netflix)
    A Secret Love (Netflix)
    Laurel Canyon (Epix)
    The Elephant Queen (Apple TV+)

    POSSIBILITIES

    American Experience: McCarthy (PBS)
    I Love You, Now Die: The Commonwealth v. Michelle Carter (HBO)
    Who Killed Garrett Phillips? (HBO)
    Dolphin Reef (Disney+)
    Elephant (Disney+)
    AKA Jane Roe (FX)

    LONG SHOTS

    Circus of Books (Netflix)
    Garth Brooks: The Road I'm On (A&E)
    Scandalous: The Untold Story of the National Enquirer (CNN)
    Halston (CNN)
    Very Ralph (HBO)
    Jonas Brothers: Chasing Happiness (Amazon)

  • Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking

    'Sea of Shadows'
    'Sea of Shadows'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Apollo 11 (CNN)
    American Factory (Netflix)
    The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
    The Cave (NatGeo)
    For Sama (PBS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Independent Lens: One Child Nation (PBS)
    Sea of Shadows (NatGeo)
    The Kingmaker (Showtime)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu)
    Moonlight Sonata: Deafness In Three Movements (HBO)

    LONG SHOTS

    Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
    Rolling Thunder Revue (Netflix)

  • Best Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

    'Somebody Feed Phil'
    'Somebody Feed Phil'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath (A&E)
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Netflix) — podcast (Jerry Seinfeld)
    VICE (Showtime)
    Inside the Actors Studio (Ovation)
    Somebody Feed Phil (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jay Leno's Garage (CNBC) — podcast (Jay Leno)
    Chasing the Cure (TBS & TNT)
    Diners, Drive-Ins And Dives (Food Network)
    The World According to Jeff Goldblum (Disney+)
    The Circus: Inside the Craziest Political Campaign on Earth (Showtime)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Beyonce Presents: Making the Gift (ABC)
    Kim Kardashian West: The Justice Project (Oxygen)
    Gordon Ramsay: Uncharted (NatGeo)
    Oprah Talks COVID-19 (Apple TV+) — podcast (Oprah Winfrey)

    LONG SHOTS

    Brain Games (NatGeo)
    Talking Dead (AMC)
    the goop lab with Gwyneth Paltrow (Netflix)
    Hello, Privilege. It's Me, Chelsea. (Netflix)