Feinberg Forecast: Final Projections Ahead of Tuesday's Emmy Nominations

9:03 AM 7/24/2020

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist weighs in on 24 categories.

'Ozark'
'Ozark'
Courtesy of STEVE DIETL/NETFLIX

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott's best attempt to predict the behavior of the Television Academy, not his personal preferences. He arrives at the standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, awards ceremonies that precede the Emmys (e.g. the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe and SAG awards) and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments, and more categories may be added.

  • Best Drama Series

    'Succession'
    'Succession'
    Courtesy of HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Ozark (Netflix)
    Succession (HBO)
    The Crown (Netflix)
    Better Call Saul (AMC)
    The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
    The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    Westworld (HBO)

    ALTERNATE

    Killing Eve (BBC America)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Homeland (Showtime)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    David Makes Man (OWN)

  • Best Comedy Series

    'The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel'
    'The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel'
    Amazon Studios

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
    Schitt's Creek (Pop)
    Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    Dead to Me (Netflix)
    The Good Place (NBC)
    Insecure (HBO)
    Better Things (FX)
    Ramy (Hulu)

    ALTERNATE

    Modern Family (ABC)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (NBC)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Never Have I Ever (Netflix)

  • Best Limited Series

    'Watchmen'
    'Watchmen'
    HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Watchmen (HBO)
    Unbelievable (Netflix)
    Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
    The Plot Against America (HBO)
    Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)

    ALTERNATE

    Hollywood (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Normal People (Hulu)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Devs (FX on Hulu)

  • Best Television Movie

    'Bad Education'
    'Bad Education'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Bad Education (HBO)
    El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (Netflix)
    American Son (Netflix)
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend
    (Netflix)
    The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel (Lifetime)

    ALTERNATE

    Patsy and Loretta (Lifetime)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Transparent: Musicale Finale (Amazon)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Stolen by My Mother: The Kamiyah Mobley Story (Lifetime)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    Bob Odenkirk on 'Better Call Saul'
    Bob Odenkirk on 'Better Call Saul'
    Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Tel

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
    Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
    Billy Porter (Pose) — podcast
    Brian Cox (Succession)
    Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Tobias Menzies (The Crown)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Aaron Paul (Westworld)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) — podcast

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    Olivia Colman on 'The Crown'
    Olivia Colman on 'The Crown'
    Sophie Mutevelian/Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Olivia Colman (The Crown) — podcast
    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — podcast
    Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
    Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast
    Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

    ALTERNATE

    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Claire Danes (Homeland) — podcast

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Janelle Monáe (Homecoming) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    Bradley Whitford on 'The Handmaid's Tale'
    Bradley Whitford on 'The Handmaid's Tale'
    Jasper Savage/Hulu

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
    Kieran Culkin (Succession)
    Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Tom Pelphrey (Ozark)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
    Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)

    ALTERNATE

    Josh O'Connor (The Crown)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    Meryl Streep on 'Big Little Lies'
    Meryl Streep on 'Big Little Lies'
    Jennifer Clasen/HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
    Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies) — podcast
    Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
    Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Sarah Snook (Succession)

    ALTERNATE

    Cynthia Erivo (The Outsider) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Janet McTeer (Ozark)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    Ted Danson on 'The Good Place'
    Ted Danson on 'The Good Place'
    Colleen Hayes/NBC

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Ted Danson (The Good Place) — podcast
    Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
    Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

    ALTERNATE

    Don Cheadle (Black Monday)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ben Platt (The Politician) — podcast

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    Catherine O'Hara on 'Schitt's Creek'
    Catherine O'Hara on 'Schitt's Creek'
    Pop TV

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Issa Rae (Insecure)
    Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
    Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)

    ALTERNATE

    Jane Levy (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    Alan Arkin on 'The Kominsky Method'
    Alan Arkin on 'The Kominsky Method'
    Michael Yarish/Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)
    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Dan Levy (Schitt's Creek)
    Sterling K. Brown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
    Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Mahershala Ali (Ramy) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    James Marsden (Dead to Me)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Peter Gallagher (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Leroy McClain (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Betty Gilpin on 'GLOW'
    Betty Gilpin on 'GLOW'
    Erica Parise/Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Annie Murphy (Schitt's Creek)
    Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
    Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Emily Hampshire (Schitt's Creek)
    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)

    ALTERNATE

    Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Gillian Anderson (Sex Education)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Hiam Abbass (Ramy)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Mark Ruffalo on 'I Know This Much Is True'
    Mark Ruffalo on 'I Know This Much Is True'
    Atsushi Nishijima/HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Jeremy Irons (Watchmen)
    Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much Is True)
    Hugh Jackman (Bad Education) — podcast
    Aaron Paul (El Camino)
    Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

    ALTERNATE

    Paul Mescal (Normal People)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jeremy Pope (Hollywood)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Nick Offerman (Devs)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Cate Blanchett on 'Mrs. America'
    Cate Blanchett on 'Mrs. America'
    Courtesy of FX

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Regina King (Watchmen)
    Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America)
    Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)
    Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable) — podcast
    Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Reese Witherspoon (Little Fires Everywhere) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Aunjanue Ellis (The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel) — podcast

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Shira Haas (Unorthodox)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    John Turturro on 'The Plot Against America'
    John Turturro on 'The Plot Against America'
    Courtesy of HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    John Turturro (The Plot Against America) — podcast
    Jim Parsons (Hollywood)
    Tim Blake Nelson (Watchmen)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend)
    Darren Criss (Hollywood) — podcast
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Watchmen)

    ALTERNATE

    Jesse Plemons (El Camino) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ray Romano (Bad Education)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Michael Sheen (Quiz)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    Toni Collette on 'Unbelievable'
    Toni Collette on 'Unbelievable'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
    Jean Smart (Watchmen)
    Rose Byrne (Mrs. America)
    Sarah Paulson (Mrs. America)
    Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America)
    Tracey Ullman (Mrs. America)

    ALTERNATE

    Allison Janney (Bad Education) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Hong Chau (Watchmen)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Sienna Miller (The Loudest Voice)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    'Saturday Night Live'
    'Saturday Night Live'
    Will Heath/NBC

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
    A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) — podcast (Robin Thede)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    At Home With Amy Sedaris (truTV)

    ALTERNATE

    The Iliza Shlesinger Sketch Show (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Sherman's Showcase (IFC)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Astronomy Club: The Sketch Show (Netflix)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver'
    'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver'
    Lloyd Bishop/HBO

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
    The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast
    The Late Late Show With James Corden
    (CBS) — podcast
    The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
    (Comedy Central) — podcast
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Some Good News (YouTube) — podcast (John Krasinski)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Desus & Mero (Showtime) — podcast

  • Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

    'Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones'
    'Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones'
    Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones (Netflix)
    Hannah Gadsby: Douglas (Netflix) — podcast (Hannah Gadsby)
    Homefest: James Corden’s Late Late Show Special (CBS) — podcast (James Corden)
    Jerry Seinfeld: 23 Hours to Kill (Netflix) — podcast (Jerry Seinfeld)
    The Kennedy Center Honors (PBS)

    ALTERNATE

    John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Graduate Together: America Honors the High School Class of 2020 (syndicated)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Conan Without Borders: Ghana (TBS) — podcast (Conan O'Brien)

  • Best Variety Special (Live)

    'Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira'
    'Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira'
    Courtesy of Pepsi

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira (CBS) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
    The Oscars (ABC)
    The 77th Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
    The 73rd Tony Awards (CBS) — podcast (James Corden)
    Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times (ABC) — podcast (Norman Lear) & podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)

    ALTERNATE

    The 62nd Grammy Awards (CBS)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    One World: Together at Home (syndicated)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Yellowstone Live (NatGeo)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series

    'The Last Dance'
    'The Last Dance'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Last Dance (ESPN)
    Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness (Netflix)
    Hillary (Hulu) — podcast (Hillary Clinton)
    Country Music (PBS) — podcast (Ken Burns)
    McMillions (HBO)

    ALTERNATE

    Surviving R. Kelly Part II: The Reckoning (Lifetime)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich (Netflix)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Visible: Out on Television (Apple TV+)

  • Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special

    'Becoming'
    'Becoming'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Becoming (Netflix)
    The Apollo (HBO)
    Beastie Boys Story (Apple TV+)
    The Black Godfather (Netflix)
    Natalie Wood: What Remains Behind (HBO)

    ALTERNATE

    St. Louis Superman (MTV)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Laurel Canyon: A Place in Time (Epix)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    A Secret Love (Netflix)

  • Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking

    'Apollo 11'
    'Apollo 11'

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Apollo 11 (CNN)
    American Factory (Netflix)
    The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
    The Cave (NatGeo)
    For Sama (PBS)

    ALTERNATE

    Independent Lens: One Child Nation (PBS)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Sea of Shadows (NatGeo)

  • Best Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

    'Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath'
    'Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath'
    Courtesy of A+E Networks

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath (A&E)
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Netflix) — podcast (Jerry Seinfeld)
    VICE (Showtime)
    Inside the Actors Studio (Ovation)
    Somebody Feed Phil (Netflix)

    ALTERNATE

    Jay Leno's Garage (CNBC) — podcast (Jay Leno)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Beyonce Presents: Making the Gift (ABC)

    SHOULD BE A CONTENDER

    Chasing the Cure (TBS & TNT)