The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist offers his first assessment of the race since the world premiere of 'The Irishman.'

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

• Best Picture

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
  The Irishman (Netflix)
  The Two Popes (Netflix)
  Marriage Story (Netflix)
  Parasite (Neon)
  The Farewell (A24)
  Joker (Warner Bros.)
  A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
  Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
  Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
  Judy (Roadside Attractions)
  Downton Abbey (Focus Features) NEW
  Rocketman (Paramount)
  Booksmart (Annapurna)
  Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Hustlers (STX)
  Waves (A24)
  Honey Boy (Amazon)
  Toy Story 4 (Disney)
  The Lion King (Disney)
  Uncut Gems (A24)

  LONG SHOTS

  Apollo 11 (Neon) NEW
  Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
  Harriet (Focus Features) NEW
  The Aeronauts (Amazon)
  The Report (Amazon)
  The Lighthouse (A24)
  The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)

  STILL TO SEE

  1917 (Universal)
  Ad Astra (Fox)
  The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) NEW
  The Banker (Apple)
  Bombshell (Lionsgate)
  Cats (Universal)
  Dark Waters (Focus Features)
  Gemini Man (Paramount)
  Give Me Liberty (Music Box) NEW
  The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
  A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
  Knives Out (Lionsgate)
  Little Women (Sony)
  Queen & Slim (Universal)
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)

• Best Director

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) NEW
  Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
  Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
  Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
  Todd Phillips (Joker)
  Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
  James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Michael Engler (Downton Abbey) NEW
  Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
  Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
  Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
  Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
  Rupert Goold (Judy)

  LONG SHOTS

  Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
  Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
  Jon Favreau (The Lion King)
  Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Avengers: Endgame)
  Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)

  STILL TO SEE

  J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
  Dan Bradley & James Gray (Ad Astra)
  Bill Condon (The Good Liar)
  Clint Eastwood (The Ballad of Richard Jewell) NEW
  Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
  Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
  Tom Hooper (Cats)
  Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
  Ang Lee (Gemini Man)
  Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
  Sam Mendes (1917)
  Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim)
  George Nolfi (The Banker)
  Jay Roach (Bombshell)

• Best Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
  Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
  Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
  Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast NEW

  MAJOR THREATS

  Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
  Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
  Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
  Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
  Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
  Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
  Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast
  Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast NEW

  LONG SHOTS

  Jimmie Fails (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
  Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
  Jamie Bell (Skin)
  Himesh Patel (Yesterday)

  STILL TO SEE

  Timothee Chalamet (The King) — podcast
  Brian Cox (The Etruscan Smile)
  Paul Walter Hauser (The Ballad of Richard Jewell) NEW
  Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker) — podcast
  Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
  Anthony Mackie (The Banker)
  Ian McKellen (The Good Liar) — podcast
  Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
  Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)
  Will Smith (Gemini Man) — podcast
• Best Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
  Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
  Awkwafina (The Farewell)
  Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
  Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
  Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
  Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Noémie Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
  Meryl Streep (The Laundromat) — podcast
  Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
  Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)

  LONG SHOTS

  Natalie Portman (Lucy in the Sky) — podcast
  Emma Thompson (Late Night)
  Michelle Williams (After the Wedding)
  Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
  Florence Pugh (Fighting with My Family)

  STILL TO SEE

  Isabelle Huppert (Frankie) — podcast
  Helen Mirren (The Good Liar) — podcast
  Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
  Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
  Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
  Kristen Stewart (Seberg) — podcast
  Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
  Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
  Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

• Best Supporting Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
  Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
  Al Pacino (The Irishman) NEW
  Joe Pesci (The Irishman) NEW

  MAJOR THREATS

  Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
  Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
  Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
  Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
  Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
  Lucas Hedges (Honey Boy) — podcast
  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
  Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast NEW
  Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Waves)
  Lucas Hedges (Waves) — podcast
  Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
  Chris Cooper (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
  Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast

  LONG SHOTS

  Billy Eichner (The Lion King) NEW
  Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast
  Eddie Redmayne (The Aeronauts) — podcast
  Ray Liotta (Marriage Story) — podcast
  Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
  Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
  Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
  Rob Morgan (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)

  STILL TO SEE

  Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
  Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon) NEW
  Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
  John Lithgow (Bombshell)
  Malcolm McDowell (Bombshell)
  Ian McKellen (Cats) — podcast
  Tim Robbins (Dark Waters)

• Best Supporting Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
  Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
  Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) NEW
  Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
  Annette Bening (The Report)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
  Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
  Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
  Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Taylor Russell (Waves)
  Julie Hagerty (Marriage Story)
  Janelle Monae (Harriet)
  Margaret Qualley (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast

  LONG SHOTS

  Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Motherless Brooklyn)
  Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
  Frances Conroy (Joker)
  Julianne Moore (After the Wedding)

  STILL TO SEE

  Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
  Judi Dench (Cats) — podcast
  Laura Dern (Little Women)
  Anne Hathaway (Dark Waters)
  Jennifer Hudson (Cats)
  Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
  Anna Paquin (The Irishman)
  Florence Pugh (Little Women)
  Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
  Chloe Sevigny (Queen & Slim)
  Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
  Marisa Tomei (Frankie)
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten) NEW
  The Irishman (Steven Zaillian) NEW
  Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
  A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
  Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Judy (Tom Edge)
  Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
  Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
  Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast NEW

  POSSIBILITIES

  Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
  The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
  Avengers: Endgame (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)
  The Lion King (Brenda Chapman & Jeff Nathanson)

  LONG SHOTS

  Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
  Gloria Bell (Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastian Lelio & Gonzala Maza)
  How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois)

  STILL TO SEE

  The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Billy Ray) NEW
  Cats (Lee Hall & Tom Hooper)
  Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
  The Good Liar (Jeffrey Hatcher)
  Little Women (Greta Gerwig & Sarah Polley) — podcast (Gerwig)
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)

• Best Original Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
  Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
  Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
  The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
  Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
  Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar)
  Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
  Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast
  The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
  Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
  The Report (Scott Z. Burns)
  Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
  Midsommar (Ari Aster)
  Rocketman (Lee Hall)

  LONG SHOTS

  Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Celine Sciamma)
  The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers) NEW
  The Aeronauts (Tom Harper & Jack Thorne)
  Yesterday (Jack Barth & Richard Curtis)
  Harriet (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
  Fighting With My Family (Stephen Merchant)

  STILL TO SEE

  1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
  Ad Astra (James Gray & Ethan Gross)
  The Banker (David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger)
  Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
  Clemency (Chinonye Chukwu)
  Fast Color (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
  Frankie (Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias)
  Gemini Man (David Benioff, Darren Lemke & Billy Ray)
  Her Smell (Alex Ross Perry)
  High Life (Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau)
  A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
  Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
  The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz) NEW
  Queen & Slim (James Frey & Lena Waithe) — podcast (Waithe)
  Seberg (Joe Shrapnel & Anna Waterhouse)

• Best Animated Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
  How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
  I Lost My Body (Netflix)
  Funan (GKIDS)
  Abominable (Universal)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Weathering with You (GKIDS)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

  LONG SHOTS

  The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)
  The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)

  STILL TO COME

  Frozen 2 (Disney)
  Klaus (Netflix)
  A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Lionsgate/Warner Bros.)
• Best Documentary Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  American Factory (Netflix)
  Apollo 11 (Neon)
  Diego Maradona (HBO)
  The Cave (National Geographic)
  The Kingmaker (Showtime)

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
  Knock Down the House (Netflix)
  One Child Nation (Amazon)
  Maiden (Sony Classics)
  Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)
  For Sama (PBS)

  POSSIBILITIES

  The Human Factor (still seeking U.S. distribution)
  17 Blocks (MTV)
  Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
  What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael (Juno)
  The Great Hack (Netflix)

  LONG SHOTS

  Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
  Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu/Magnolia)
  David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)
  The Black Godfather (Netflix)
  Love, Antosha (self-distributed)
  Red Penguins (still seeking U.S. distribution)

  STILL TO SEE

  The Apollo (HBO)
  Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
  Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
  Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
  Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
  The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
  The Elephant Queen (Apple)
  Gay Chorus Deep South (MTV)
  Honeyland (Neon)
  Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
  Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
  Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
  Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins (Magnolia)
  Running with Beto (HBO)
  The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
  Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
  Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)