Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Projections as New York Film Fest Gets Underway

5:00 AM 10/1/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist offers his first assessment of the race since the world premiere of 'The Irishman.'

World Premiere of Martin Scorsese's The Irishman - Still 2 - Publicity-H 2019
Netflix

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    The Farewell (A24)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
    Judy (Roadside Attractions)
    Downton Abbey (Focus Features) NEW
    Rocketman (Paramount)
    Booksmart (Annapurna)
    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hustlers (STX)
    Waves (A24)
    Honey Boy (Amazon)
    Toy Story 4
    (Disney)
    The Lion King (Disney)
    Uncut Gems (A24)

    LONG SHOTS

    Apollo 11 (Neon) NEW
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Disney)
    Harriet (Focus Features) NEW
    The Aeronauts (Amazon)
    The Report (Amazon)
    The Lighthouse (A24)
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Universal)
    Ad Astra (Fox)
    The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) NEW
    The Banker (Apple)
    Bombshell (Lionsgate)
    Cats (Universal)
    Dark Waters (Focus Features)
    Gemini Man (Paramount)
    Give Me Liberty (Music Box) NEW
    The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
    A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
    Knives Out (Lionsgate)
    Little Women (Sony)
    Queen & Slim (Universal)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) NEW
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
    Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Todd Phillips (Joker)
    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michael Engler (Downton Abbey) NEW
    Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
    Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
    Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
    Rupert Goold (Judy)

    LONG SHOTS

    Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
    Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
    Jon Favreau (The Lion King)
    Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Avengers: Endgame)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)

    STILL TO SEE

    J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
    Dan Bradley & James Gray (Ad Astra)
    Bill Condon (The Good Liar)
    Clint Eastwood (The Ballad of Richard Jewell) NEW
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
    Tom Hooper (Cats)
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
    Ang Lee (Gemini Man)
    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
    Sam Mendes (1917)
    Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim)
    George Nolfi (The Banker)
    Jay Roach (Bombshell)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
    Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast
    Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Jimmie Fails (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Jamie Bell (Skin)
    Himesh Patel (Yesterday)

    STILL TO SEE

    Timothee Chalamet (The King) — podcast
    Brian Cox (The Etruscan Smile)
    Paul Walter Hauser (The Ballad of Richard Jewell) NEW
    Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker) — podcast
    Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
    Anthony Mackie (The Banker)
    Ian McKellen (The Good Liar) — podcast
    Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
    Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)
    Will Smith (Gemini Man) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Awkwafina (The Farewell)
    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
    Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
    Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Noémie Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
    Meryl Streep (The Laundromat) — podcast
    Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
    Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)

    LONG SHOTS

    Natalie Portman (Lucy in the Sky) — podcast
    Emma Thompson (Late Night)
    Michelle Williams (After the Wedding)
    Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
    Florence Pugh (Fighting with My Family)

    STILL TO SEE

    Isabelle Huppert (Frankie) — podcast
    Helen Mirren (The Good Liar) — podcast
    Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
    Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
    Kristen Stewart (Seberg) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman) NEW
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
    Lucas Hedges (Honey Boy) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast NEW
    Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Waves)
    Lucas Hedges (Waves) — podcast
    Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
    Chris Cooper (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Billy Eichner (The Lion King) NEW
    Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast
    Eddie Redmayne (The Aeronauts) — podcast
    Ray Liotta (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
    Rob Morgan (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)

    STILL TO SEE

    Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
    Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon) NEW
    Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Malcolm McDowell (Bombshell)
    Ian McKellen (Cats) — podcast
    Tim Robbins (Dark Waters)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) NEW
    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Annette Bening (The Report)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
    Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taylor Russell (Waves)
    Julie Hagerty (Marriage Story)
    Janelle Monae (Harriet)
    Margaret Qualley (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
    Frances Conroy (Joker)
    Julianne Moore (After the Wedding)

    STILL TO SEE

    Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
    Judi Dench (Cats) — podcast
    Laura Dern (Little Women)
    Anne Hathaway (Dark Waters)
    Jennifer Hudson (Cats)
    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
    Anna Paquin (The Irishman)
    Florence Pugh (Little Women)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
    Chloe Sevigny (Queen & Slim)
    Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
    Marisa Tomei (Frankie)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten) NEW
    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian) NEW
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Judy (Tom Edge)
    Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
    Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
    Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
    The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)
    The Lion King (Brenda Chapman & Jeff Nathanson)

    LONG SHOTS

    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
    Gloria Bell (Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastian Lelio & Gonzala Maza)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois)

    STILL TO SEE

    The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Billy Ray) NEW
    Cats
    (Lee Hall & Tom Hooper)
    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
    The Good Liar (Jeffrey Hatcher)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig & Sarah Polley) — podcast (Gerwig)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
    Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar)
    Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Ford v Ferrari
    (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    The Report (Scott Z. Burns)
    Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Midsommar (Ari Aster)
    Rocketman (Lee Hall)

    LONG SHOTS

    Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Celine Sciamma)
    The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers) NEW
    The Aeronauts (Tom Harper & Jack Thorne)
    Yesterday
    (Jack Barth & Richard Curtis)
    Harriet (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
    Fighting With My Family (Stephen Merchant)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
    Ad Astra (James Gray & Ethan Gross)
    The Banker (David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger)
    Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
    Clemency (Chinonye Chukwu)
    Fast Color (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
    Frankie (Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias)
    Gemini Man (David Benioff, Darren Lemke & Billy Ray)
    Her Smell (Alex Ross Perry)
    High Life (Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau)
    A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
    Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz) NEW
    Queen & Slim (James Frey & Lena Waithe) — podcast (Waithe)
    Seberg (Joe Shrapnel & Anna Waterhouse)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Funan (GKIDS)
    Abominable (Universal)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Weathering with You (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)
    The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)

    STILL TO COME

    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    Klaus (Netflix)
    A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Lionsgate/Warner Bros.)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    Diego Maradona (HBO)
    The Cave (National Geographic)
    The Kingmaker (Showtime)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
    Knock Down the House
    (Netflix)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    Maiden (Sony Classics)
    Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)
    For Sama
    (PBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Human Factor (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    17 Blocks
    (MTV)
    Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael (Juno)
    The Great Hack (Netflix)

    LONG SHOTS

    Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
    Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu/Magnolia)
    David Crosby: Remember My Name
    (Sony Classics)
    The Black Godfather
    (Netflix)
    Love, Antosha
    (self-distributed)
    Red Penguins (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    STILL TO SEE

    The Apollo (HBO)
    Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
    Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
    Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
    The Edge of Democracy
    (Netflix)
    The Elephant Queen (Apple)
    Gay Chorus Deep South (MTV)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
    Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins (Magnolia)
    Running with Beto (HBO)
    The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
    Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
    Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)