Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Standings As the Race Moves to the Hamptons
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist checks back in after the huge — and safe — opening weekend for 'Joker'; 'Marriage Story' marked the middle of the New York Film Festival; and 'Gemini Man' underwhelmed in LA.
These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.
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Best Picture
'Waves'Telluride Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
The Farewell (A24)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Judy (Roadside Attractions)MAJOR THREATS
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Waves (A24)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)POSSIBILITIES
Downton Abbey (Focus Features)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Hustlers (STX)
Toy Story 4 (Disney)
Us (Universal)
Booksmart (Annapurna)LONG SHOTS
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
The Report (Amazon)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
The Lion King (Disney)
Avengers: Endgame (Disney)STILL TO SEE
1917 (Universal)
Ad Astra (Fox)
The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.)
The Banker (Apple)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Cats (Universal)
Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Give Me Liberty (Music Box)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Little Women (Sony)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside Attractions) NEW
Queen & Slim (Universal)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) -
Best Director
Noah Baumbach directing 'Marriage Story'Courtesy of NetflixFRONTRUNNERS
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)MAJOR THREATS
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)POSSIBILITIES
Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
Rupert Goold (Judy)
Michael Engler (Downton Abbey)LONG SHOTS
Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
Jon Favreau (The Lion King)STILL TO SEE
J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
Dan Bradley & James Gray (Ad Astra)
Bill Condon (The Good Liar)
Clint Eastwood (The Ballad of Richard Jewell)
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
Tom Hooper (Cats)
Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim)
George Nolfi (The Banker)
Jay Roach (Bombshell) -
Best Actor
Adam Sandler in 'Uncut Gems'Telluride Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)POSSIBILITIES
Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit) NEWLONG SHOTS
Jimmie Fails (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
Jamie Bell (Skin)
Himesh Patel (Yesterday)STILL TO SEE
Timothee Chalamet (The King) — podcast
Brian Cox (The Etruscan Smile)
Paul Walter Hauser (The Ballad of Richard Jewell)
Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
Anthony Mackie (The Banker)
Ian McKellen (The Good Liar) — podcast
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) -
Best Actress
Florence Pugh, right, in 'Midsommar'Gabor Kotschy/A24FRONTRUNNERS
Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Lupita Nyong'o (Us)MAJOR THREATS
Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)POSSIBILITIES
Meryl Streep (The Laundromat) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)
Noémie Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)LONG SHOTS
Natalie Portman (Lucy in the Sky) — podcast
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Michelle Williams (After the Wedding)
Florence Pugh (Fighting With My Family)STILL TO SEE
Isabelle Huppert (Frankie) — podcast
Helen Mirren (The Good Liar) — podcast
Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
Mary Kay Place (Diane) NEW
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
Kristen Stewart (Seberg) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
Naomi Watts (Luce) NEW
Alfre Woodard (Clemency) -
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, front and center, in 'Ford v Ferrari'Telluride Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)MAJOR THREATS
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Honey Boy) — podcast
Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name) NEW
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Waves)
Lucas Hedges (Waves) — podcastLONG SHOTS
Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
Billy Eichner (The Lion King)
Ray Liotta (Marriage Story) — podcast
Eddie Redmayne (The Aeronauts) — podcast
Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
Chris Cooper (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Rob Morgan (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)STILL TO SEE
Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon) NEW
Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker) — podcast
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Malcolm McDowell (Bombshell)
Ian McKellen (Cats) — podcast
Tim Robbins (Dark Waters) -
Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson, left, in 'Jojo Rabbit'Larry Horricks/Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Annette Bening (The Report)MAJOR THREATS
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)POSSIBILITIES
Taylor Russell (Waves)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name) NEW
Janelle Monae (Harriet)
Margaret Qualley (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcastLONG SHOTS
Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Motherless Brooklyn)
Julianne Moore (After the Wedding)
Frances Conroy (Joker)STILL TO SEE
Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
Judi Dench (Cats) — podcast
Laura Dern (Little Women)
Anne Hathaway (Dark Waters)
Jennifer Hudson (Cats)
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
Nia Long (The Banker) NEW
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Chloe Sevigny (Queen & Slim)
Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
Marisa Tomei (Frankie) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
'Hustlers'Alison Cohen Rosa/STXfilmsFRONTRUNNERS
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)MAJOR THREATS
Judy (Tom Edge)
Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)POSSIBILITIES
Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
Avengers: Endgame (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)
The Lion King (Brenda Chapman & Jeff Nathanson)LONG SHOTS
Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
Gloria Bell (Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastian Lelio & Gonzala Maza)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois)STILL TO SEE
The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Billy Ray)
Cats (Lee Hall & Tom Hooper)
Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
The Good Liar (Jeffrey Hatcher)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig & Sarah Polley) — podcast (Gerwig)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams) -
Best Original Screenplay
'The Last Black Man in San Francisco'Courtesy of Disney/PixarFRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf)MAJOR THREATS
Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)POSSIBILITIES
The Report (Scott Z. Burns)
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
Midsommar (Ari Aster)
Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
Rocketman (Lee Hall)
The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)LONG SHOTS
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Celine Sciamma)
The Aeronauts (Tom Harper & Jack Thorne)
Yesterday (Jack Barth & Richard Curtis)
Harriet (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
Fighting with My Family (Stephen Merchant)STILL TO SEE
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Ad Astra (James Gray & Ethan Gross)
The Banker (David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger)
Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
Clemency (Chinonye Chukwu)
Fast Color (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Frankie (Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias)
Her Smell (Alex Ross Perry)
High Life (Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau)
A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz) NEW
Queen & Slim (James Frey & Lena Waithe) — podcast (Waithe)
Seberg (Joe Shrapnel & Anna Waterhouse) -
Best Animated Feature
'Weathering With You'Courtesy of TIFFFRONTRUNNERS
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Funan (GKIDS)
Abominable (Universal)MAJOR THREATS
Weathering With You (GKIDS)
POSSIBILITIES
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
LONG SHOTS
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)STILL TO COME
Frozen 2 (Disney)
Klaus (Netflix)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Lionsgate/Warner Bros.) -
Best Documentary Feature
'Ask Dr. Ruth'Courtesy of Sundance Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
American Factory (Netflix)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
Diego Maradona (HBO)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
One Child Nation (Amazon)
Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)
Knock Down the House (Netflix)
The Kingmaker (Showtime)
Maiden (Sony Classics)
For Sama (PBS)
Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu/Magnolia)
17 Blocks (MTV)
Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
Cunningham (Magnola) NEWPOSSIBILITIES
The Human Factor (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Great Hack (Netflix)
Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael (Juno)
Mike Wallace Is Here (Magnolia) NEWLONG SHOTS
David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)
American Dharma (Utopia) NEW
The Black Godfather (Netflix)
Love, Antosha (self-distributed)
Red Penguins (still seeking U.S. distribution)STILL TO SEE
After Parkland (still seeking US distribution)
The Apollo (HBO)
Aquarela (Sony Classics) NEW
Black Mother (Grasshopper) NEW
Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
Don't Be Nice (Juno) NEW
Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
The Elephant Queen (Apple)
Emanuel (still seeking U.S. distribution) NEW
Ernie & Joe (still seeking U.S. distribution) NEW
Fiddlin' (Utopia) NEW
The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions) NEW
Gay Chorus Deep South (MTV)
The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube) NEW
Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky) NEW
Hail Satan? (Magnolia) NEW
Honeyland (Neon)
Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Hottest August (Grasshopper) NEW
Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
Midnight Traveler (Oscilloscope) NEW
On the President's Orders (PBS) NEW
The Proposal (Oscilloscope) NEW
Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins (Magnolia)
Roll Red Roll (PBS) NEW
Running With Beto (HBO)
The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia) NEW
Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama) NEW -
Best International Feature
'Tel Aviv on Fire' (Luxembourg)Courtesy of Venice Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Atlantics (Senegal)
Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Papicha (Algeria)
The Traitor (Italy)
The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao (Brazil)
Our Mothers (Belgium)
It Must Be Heaven (Palestine)POSSIBILITIES
System Crasher (Germany)
And Then We Danced (Sweden)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Beanpole (Russia)
Monos (Colombia)
Gully Boy (India)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Weathering with You (Japan)
Incitement (Israel)
Zana (Kosovo)LONG SHOTS
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
The Whistlers (Romania)
The Chambermaid (Mexico)
Knuckle City (South Africa)
Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
Ne Zha (China)
The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
Let There Be Light (Slovakia) -
Best Cinematography
'The Two Popes'Peter MountainFRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)MAJOR THREATS
Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai Mălaimare Jr.)
Waves (Drew Daniels)
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
Honey Boy (Natasha Braier)POSSIBILITIES
Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)
The Farewell (Anna Franquesa Solano)
The Aeronauts (George Steel)
Rocketman (George Richmond)
Us (Mike Gioulakis)
Harriet (John Toll)
Midsommar (Pawel Pogorzelski)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Adam Newport-Berra)
The Goldfinch (Roger Deakins)LONG SHOTS
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Claire Mathon)
Pain and Glory (José Luis Alcaine)
Hustlers (Todd Banhazl)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Jody Lee Lipes)
Lucy in the Sky (Polly Morgan)
Downton Abbey (Ben Smithard)
Just Mercy (Brett Pawlak)
Judy (Ole Birkeland)
Booksmart (Jason McCormick)STILL TO COME
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
The Ballad of Richard Jewell (Yves Bélanger)
The Banker (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)
Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
Cats (Christopher Ross)
Dark Waters (Alex Howe)
Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
The Good Liar (Tobias A. Schliessler)
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
Queen & Slim (Tat Radcliffe)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel)