Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the 2018-2019 Oscar Race

7:00 AM 8/30/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist surveys the field ahead of the fall film fests.

'Eighth Grade'
'Eighth Grade'
Linda Kallerus/A24

As the 75th Venice International Film Festival and the 45th Telluride Film Festival get underway, and with the 43rd Toronto International Film Festival just over the horizon, it's time to offer the first, and necessarily preliminary, survey of the most serious contenders for major Oscars, based on early screenings and sourcing. As the fests unfurl, there will undoubtedly be other contenders joining the list.

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York and LOND=London.

  • Best Picture

    Jonny Cournoyer/Paramount Pictures

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
    At Eternity's Gate (CBS Films) VENI, NYFF
    Backseat (Annapurna)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) VENI, NYFF
    Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF
    Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
    Bird Box (Netflix)
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    Black Panther (Disney)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    Boy Erased (Focus Features) TELL, TIFF
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
    Capernaum (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Colette (Bleecker Street) SUND, TIFF
    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
    Destroyer (Annapurna) TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Disobedience (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Eighth Grade (A24) SUND
    Everybody Knows (Focus Features) CANN, TIFF
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
    First Reformed (A24) VENI ['17], TELL ['17], TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    The Hate U Give (Fox) TIFF
    Hereditary (A24) SUND
    Hotel Mumbai (Bleecker Street/ShivHans Pictures) TIFF
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL
    Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
    Life Itself (Amazon) TIFF
    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
    Mission: Impossible — Fallout (Paramount)
    The Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Non-Fiction (IFC) TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
    Outlaw King (Netflix) TIFF
    Peterloo (Amazon) VENI, TELL
    A Private War (Aviron) LOND
    Private Life (Netflix) SUND, NYFF
    A Quiet Place (Paramount)
    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna) VENI, TIFF
    Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND
    A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    Suspiria (Amazon) VENI
    White Boy Rick (Sony) TELL, TIFF
    Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
    The Wife (Sony Classics) TIFF ['17]
    Wildlife (IFC) SUND, CANN, TIFF, NYFF

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Dumplin'
    Galveston TIFF
    High Life NYFF
    Icebox
    My Life on the Road
    The Public TIFF
    Red Joan TIFF
    Stan & Ollie LOND
    Vox Lux TIFF
    Trial by Fire TELL
    The Wedding Guest TIFF

  • Best Director

    Ryan Coogler on the set of 'Black Panther'
    Ryan Coogler on the set of 'Black Panther'
    Courtesy of Matt Kennedy/Marvel Studios

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Olivier Assayas (Non-Fiction)
    Ari Aster (Hereditary)
    Jacques Audiard (The Sisters Brothers)
    Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Paul Dano (Wildlife)
    Yann Demange (White Boy Rick)
    Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
    Asghar Farhadi (Everybody Knows)
    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Dan Fogelman (Life Itself)
    Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    Luca Guadagnino (Suspiria)
    Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Matthew Heineman (A Private War)
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Karyn Kusama (Destroyer)
    Nadine Labaki (Capernaum)
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
    Mike Leigh (Peterloo)
    Sebastian Lelio (Disobedience)
    David Lowery (The Old Man & The Gun)
    Anthony Maras (Hotel Mumbai)
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Adam McKay (Backseat) — podcast
    Christopher McQuarrie (Mission: Impossible — Fallout)
    Steve McQueen (Widows)
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
    Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
    Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
    Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
    Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)
    Bjorn Runge (The Wife)
    Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)
    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
    George Tillman, Jr. (The Hate U Give)
    Gus Van Sant (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
    Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
    Wash Westmoreland (Colette)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie)
    Brady Corbet (Vox Lux)
    Claire Denis (High Life)
    Emilio Estevez (The Public)
    Anne Fletcher (Dumplin')
    Melanie Laurent (Galveston)
    Trevor Nunn (Red Joan)
    Julie Taymor (My Life on the Road)
    Michael Winterbottom (The Wedding Guest)
    Edward Zwick (Trial by Fire)

  • Best Actor

    Ethan Hawke in 'First Reformed'
    Ethan Hawke in 'First Reformed'
    Courtesy of Telluride Film Festival

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Christian Bale (Backseat)
    Javier Bardem (Everybody Knows)
    Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
    Steve Carell (Backseat)
    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    Marcello Fonte (Dogman)
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Oscar Isaac (Life Itself)
    Oscar Isaac (Operation Finale)
    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
    Brady Jandreau (The Rider)
    Rory Kinnear (Peterloo)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Sisters Brothers)
    Chris Pine (Outlaw King) — podcast
    Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
    Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
    John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
    Jack O'Connell (Trial by Fire)
    Robert Pattinson (High Life) — podcast
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

  • Best Actress

    Glenn Close in 'The Wife'
    Glenn Close in 'The Wife'
    Credit: Embankment Films

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
    Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast coming soon
    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
    Isabelle Huppert (Greta) — podcast
    Dakota Johnson (Suspiria)
    Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast coming soon
    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)
    Chloe Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    Maxine Peake (Peterloo)
    Michelle Pfeiffer (Where Is Kyra?)

    Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
    Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
    Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
    Hilary Swank (What They Had)
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
    Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
    Olivia Wilde (Life Itself)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Danielle Macdonald (Dumplin')
    Julianne Moore (My Life on the Road)
    Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
    Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Ben Kingsley in 'Operation Finale'
    Ben Kingsley in 'Operation Finale'
    Valeria Florini/Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Casey Affleck (The Old Man & the Gun) — podcast
    Riz Ahmed (The Sisters Brothers)
    Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)
    Dave Chappelle (A Star Is Born)
    Jason Clarke (First Man)
    Andrew Dice Clay (A Star Is Born)
    Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
    Jamie Dornan (A Private War)
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Robert Duvall (Widows)
    Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
    Rupert Friend (At Eternity's Gate)
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
    Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Michael Greyeyes (Woman Walks Ahead)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
    Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
    Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
    Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
    Anders Danielsen Lie (22 July)
    Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick)
    Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
    Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Alessandro Nivola (Disobedience)
    Sam Rockwell (Backseat) — podcast
    Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
    Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
    Christian Slater (The Wife)
    Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
    Tom Waits (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Dominic West (Colette)
    Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Alex Wolff (Hereditary)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Margot Robbie in 'Mary Queen of Scots'
    Margot Robbie in 'Mary Queen of Scots'

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Amy Adams (Backseat)
    Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
    Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
    Annette Bening (Life Itself)
    Blythe Danner (What They Had)
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)
    Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
    Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
    Ari Graynor (The Front Runner)
    Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
    Regina Hall (The Hate U Give)
    Siobhan Fallon Hogan (Private Life)
    Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Jennifer Jason Leigh (White Boy Rick) — podcast
    Nia Long (Roxanne Roxanne)
    Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
    Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Elisabeth Moss (The Old Man & The Gun) — podcast
    Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
    Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)
    Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
    Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    Jennifer Aniston (Dumplin')
    Laura Dern (Trial by Fire)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'Incredibles 2'
    'Incredibles 2'
    Coutesy of Disney•Pixar

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL
    Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
    Mirai (GKIDS)
    Next Gen (Netflix)
    Night Is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
    White Fang (Netflix)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'Won't You Be My Neighbor?'
    'Won't You Be My Neighbor?'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
    Believer (HBO)
    The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
    Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND
    Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
    Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
    Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL
    The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]

    Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
    In Search of Greatness (AOS)
    Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
    John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
    The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
    The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
    King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
    Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
    Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
    Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
    Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
    McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Minding the Gap (Hulu) SUND
    Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND
    The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
    Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
    The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
    Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
    Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
    Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND
    Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
    The Sentence (HBO) SUND
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
    Skate Kitchen (Magnolia) SUND
    Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
    Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
    They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
    Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Angels Are Made of Light TELL
    Aquarela VENI, LOND
    Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
    The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
    Chef Flynn SUND
    The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
    Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes TIFF
    The Elephant Queen TIFF
    Far from the Tree
    Ghost Fleet TELL
    Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
    The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
    Kailash SUN
    Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
    Mountain
    Saving Brinton
    Screwball TIFF
    The Silence of Others BERL
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
    Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    'Shoplifters'
    'Shoplifters'
    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    Birds of Passage [Colombia] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    Crystal Swan [Belarus]
    Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
    The Family [Venezuela]
    Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
    I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
    The Interpreter [Slovakia]
    Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
    The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
    Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]

    POTENTIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    3 Faces [Iran] CANN, NYFF
    The Accused [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
    The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
    Asako I & II [Japan] TIFF, NYFF
    Ash Is Purest White [China] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
    At War [France] CANN
    Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
    Baby [China] TIFF
    Burning [South Korea] CANN, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] CANN, TIFF
    Capri-Revolution [Italy] VENI
    Cold War [Poland] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Daughter of Mine [Italy] BERL
    The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
    Divine Wind [Algeria] TIFF
    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Dovlatov [Russia] BERL, TELL
    Euphoria [France] CANN
    Eva [France] BERL
    Everybody Knows [Spain] CANN, TIFF
    A Faithful Man [France] TIFF, NYFF
    The Fall of the American Empire [Canada] (Sony Classics) TIFF
    A Family Tour [China] NYFF
    La Flor: Primera Parte [Argentina] NYFF
    The Gentle Indifference of the World [Kazakhstan] CANN
    Girls of the Sun [France] CANN, TIFF
    Grass [South Korea] NYFF
    The Guilty [Denmark] SUND
    Happy as Lazzaro [Italy] CANN, NYFF, LOND
    The Harvesters [South Africa] CANN
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
    Hotel by the River [South Korea] TIFF, NYFF
    Hidden Man [China] TIFF
    Husband Material [India] TIFF
    The Image Book [France] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
    Joy [Austria] LOND
    Khibula [Georgia]
    Knife + Heart [France] CANN
    Leto [Russia] CANN
    Little Tickles [France] CANN
    Long Day's Journey Into Night [China] CANN, NYFF
    Loro [Italy] TIFF
    Manto [India] CANN, TIFF
    Maya [France] TIFF
    Mug [Poland] BERL
    Museum [Mexico] BERL
    My Favourite Fabric [Syria] CANN
    One Last Deal [Finland] TIFF
    Our Time [Mexico] VENI, TIFF
    Pig [Iran] BERL
    The Prayer [Berlin] BERL
    Rafiki [Kenya] CANN, TIFF
    Roma [Mexico] VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Season of the Devil [Philippines] BERL
    Shadow [China] VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Sorry Angel [France] CANN, NYFF
    The Stillness [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
    Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
    Tel Aviv on Fire [Palestine] VENI, TIFF
    Too Late to Die Young [Chile] TIFF, NYFF, LOND
    U – July 22 [Norway] BERL
    Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN