Feinberg Forecast: Overview of Emmys Race, Now Including Variety Categories

6:45 AM 6/5/2017

by Scott Feinberg

In this second installment of his weekly projections, THR's awards columnist looks at the landscape in the aftermath of the Bill Maher incident, the 'Leftovers' finale, Netflix's cancelation of 'Sense 8,' Keri Russell's Walk of Fame ceremony and more.

The Americans Still Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell - Publicity - H 2017
Courtesy of Patrick Harbron/FX

Please note that revisions will be made and additional categories will be added to future installments of the "Feinberg Forecast," which will post once each week.

  • Best Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Crown (Netflix)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Americans (FX)
    Stranger Things (Netflix)
    House of Cards (Netflix)
    Homeland (Showtime)
    The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Better Call Saul (AMC)
    Mr. Robot (USA)
    Westworld (HBO)
    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
    13 Reasons Why (Netflix)
    The Leftovers (HBO)
    American Gods (Starz)
    Legion (FX)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sneaky Pete (Amazon)
    The Good Fight (CBS)
    Striking Out (Acorn TV)
    Bates Motel (A&E)
    Queen Sugar (OWN)
    The Man in the High Castle (Amazon)
    Ray Donovan (Showtime)
    Goliath (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Victoria (PBS)
    Billions (Showtime)
    Narcos (Netflix)
    Empire (Fox)
    Designated Survivor (CBS)
    Scandal (ABC)
    Z: The Beginning of Everything (Amazon)
    The Get Down (Netflix)

  • Best Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Veep (HBO)
    Master of None (Netflix)
    Atlanta (FX)
    Transparent (Amazon)
    Black-ish (ABC)
    Silicon Valley (HBO)
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Modern Family (ABC)
    Insecure (HBO)
    Girls (HBO)
    Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)
    Fleabag (Amazon)
    The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
    Shameless (Showtime)
    Mom (CBS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (The CW)
    You're the Worst (FX)
    Catastrophe
    (Amazon)
    Dear White People (Netflix)
    Better Things (FX)
    Jane the Virgin (The CW)
    Divorce (HBO)
    Difficult People (Hulu)
    I Love Dick (Amazon)

    LONG SHOTS

    Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)
    One Day at a Time (Netflix)
    Brockmire (IFC)
    The Good Place (NBC)
    Santa Clarita Diet (Netflix)
    Schitt's Creek (Pop)
    Trial & Error (NBC)
    American Housewife (ABC)
    The Mick (Fox)
    A Series of Unfortunate Events (Netflix)

  • Best Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Big Little Lies (HBO)
    Feud (FX)
    The Night Of (HBO)
    Fargo (FX)
    American Crime (ABC)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Genius (National Geographic)
    The Young Pope (HBO)
    Guerrilla (Showtime)
    When We Rise (ABC)
    The Missing (BBC One)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life (Netflix)
    American Horror Story: Roanoke (FX)
    Shots Fired (Fox)
    Mars (National Geographic)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Kennedys: After Camelot (Reelz)
    Madiba (BET)
    The White Princess (Starz)
    Close to the Enemy (Acorn TV)

  • Best Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Wizard of Lies (HBO)
    Sherlock: The Lying Detective (PBS)
    The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks (HBO)
    Churchill's Secret (PBS)
    Custody (Lifetime)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Killing Reagan (National Geographic)
    David Brent: Life on the Road (Netflix)
    Dark Angel (PBS)
    Agatha Christie's The Witness for the Prosecution (Acorn TV)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Black Mirror (Netflix)
    Sister Cities (Lifetime)
    King Charles III (PBS)
    Dolly Parton's Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love (NBC)

    LONG SHOTS

    Wild Oats (Lifetime)
    Beaches (Lifetime)
    Looking: The Movie (HBO)
    Anne of Green Gables (PBS)

  • Best Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
    Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
    Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
    Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
    Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
    Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
    Ian McShane (American Gods)
    Anthony Hopkins (Westworld)
    Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
    Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
    Matt Smith (The Crown)
    Dan Stevens (Legion)

    POSSIBLITIES

    Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)
    Rupert Friend (Homeland)
    Hugh Laurie (Chance)
    Paul Giamatti (Billions)
    Justin Theroux (The Leftovers)
    Mike Colter (Luke Cage)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kiefer Sutherland (Designated Survivor)
    Terrence Howard (Empire)
    Wagner Moura (Narcos)
    Damian Lewis (Billions)
    Michael Sheen (Masters of Sex)
    Freddie Highmore (Bates Motel)
    Tom Hardy (Taboo)

  • Best Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Claire Foy (The Crown) — podcast
    Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Robin Wright (House of Cards)
    Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
    Keri Russell (The Americans)
    Claire Danes (Homeland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
    Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
    Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
    Carrie Coon (The Leftovers)
    Katherine Langford (13 Reasons Why)
    Taylor Schilling (Orange Is the New Black)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rutina Wesley (Queen Sugar)
    Jenna Coleman (Victoria)
    Amy Huberman (Striking Out)
    Shiri Appleby (UnReal)
    Eva Green (Penny Dreadful)
    Christina Ricci (Z: The Beginning of Everything)

    LONG SHOTS

    Taraji P. Henson (Empire) — podcast
    Kerry Washington (Scandal)
    Jennifer Lopez (Shades of Blue) — podcast
    Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
    Alexa Davalos (The Man in the High Castle)
    Michelle Dockery (Good Behavior)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    John Lithgow (The Crown)
    Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)
    Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
    Michael Kelly (House of Cards)
    Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
    Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ed Harris (Westworld)
    David Harbour (Stranger Things)
    Jared Harris (The Crown)
    Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)
    Michael McKean (Better Call Saul)
    Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid's Tale)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ben Mendelsohn (Bloodline) — podcast
    Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul)
    Jeffrey Dean Morgan (The Walking Dead)
    William Hurt (Goliath)
    Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)

    LONG SHOTS

    Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
    Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Frank Langella (The Americans)
    F. Murray Abraham (Homeland)
    Tommy Dorfman (13 Reasons Why)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
    Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
    Uzo Aduba (Orange Is the New Black)
    Thandie Newton (Westworld)
    Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
    Maura Tierney (The Affair)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)
    Margo Martindale (The Americans)
    Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
    Kate Walsh (13 Reasons Why)
    Constance Zimmer (UnReal)
    Vanessa Kirby (The Crown)
    Amy Brenneman (The Leftovers)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Aubrey Plaza (Legion)
    Eileen Atkins (The Crown)
    Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale)
    Carly Chaikin (Mr. Robot)
    Margo Martindale (Sneaky Pete)
    Maggie Siff (Billions)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sissy Spacek (Bloodline)
    Patricia Clarkson (House of Cards)
    Bellamy Young (Scandal)
    Alfre Woodard (Luke Cage)
    Aisha Hinds (Underground)
    Elizabeth Marvel (Homeland)

  • Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
    Aziz Ansari (Master of None) — podcast
    Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
    William H. Macy (Shameless)
    Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth) — podcast
    Ted Danson (The Good Place)
    Hank Azaria (Brockmire) — podcast
    Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
    Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Nick Nolte (Graves)
    Kevin Bacon (I Love Dick)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Neil Patrick Harris (A Series of Unfortunate Events)
    Patrick Stewart (Blunt Talk)
    Dwayne Johnson (Ballers)
    Martin Short (Maya & Marty)
    Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)

    LONG SHOTS

    Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
    Bill Hader (Documentary Now)
    Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Billy Eichner (Difficult People) — podcast
    Timothy Olyphant (Santa Clarita Diet)
    John Lithgow (Trial & Error)
    Rob Delaney (Catastrophe)

  • Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
    Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Allison Janney (Mom)
    Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Issa Rae (Insecure)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lena Dunham (Girls)
    Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
    Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)
    Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag)
    Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)
    Minnie Driver (Speechless)
    Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
    Tracey Ullmann (Tracey Ullmann's Show)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
    Kathryn Hahn (I Love Dick)
    Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
    Drew Barrymore (Santa Clarita Diet)
    Sutton Foster (Younger)
    Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat)
    Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
    Maya Rudolph (Maya & Marty)

    LONG SHOTS

    Amanda Peet (Brockmire)
    Carrie Brownstein (Portlandia)
    Martha Plimpton (The Real O'Neals)
    America Ferrera (Superstore)
    Anna Faris (Mom)
    Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) — podcast
    Julie Klausner (Difficult People)
    Sharon Horgan (Catastrophe)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)
    Tony Hale (Veep)
    Louie Anderson (Baskets)
    Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
    Timothy Simons (Veep)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
    Matt Walsh (Veep) — podcast
    Adam Driver (Girls) — podcast
    T.J. Miller (Silicon Valley)
    Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
    Laurence Fishburne (Black-ish)
    Andrew Rannells (Girls) — podcast
    Jay Duplass (Transparent)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
    Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
    Malcolm McDowell (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
    Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory)
    Reid Scott (Veep)

    LONG SHOTS

    Griffin Dunne (I Love Dick)
    Tracy Letts (Divorce)
    Fred Armisen (Documentary Now)
    Martin Sheen (Grace and Frankie)
    Sam Waterston (Grace and Frankie)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    William Jackson Harper (The Good Place)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
    Judith Light (Transparent)
    Gaby Hoffman (Transparent)
    Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
    Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
    Allison Williams (Girls)
    Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
    Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
    Andrea Martin (Great News) — podcast
    Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
    Carol Kane (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
    Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
    Kristen Schaal (Last Man on Earth)
    Kathryn Hahn (Transparent)
    Amy Landecker (Transparent)
    Molly Shannon (Divorce)
    Olivia Colman (Fleabag)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jemima Kirke (Girls)
    Zosia Mamet (Girls)
    Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live)
    Kaley Cuoco (The Big Bang Theory)
    Nicole Richie (Great News)
    Bernadette Peters (Mozart in the Jungle)
    Jenifer Lewis (Black-ish)

  • Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Robert De Niro (The Wizard of Lies) — podcast
    Riz Ahmed (The Night Of)
    John Turturro (The Night Of)
    Geoffrey Rush (Genius) — podcast
    Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: The Lying Detective)
    Ewan McGregor (Fargo)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ricky Gervais (David Brent: Life on the Road) — podcast
    Michael Gambon (Churchill's Secret)
    Timothy Hutton (American Crime)
    Jude Law (The Young Pope)
    Toby Jones (Agatha Christie's The Witness for the Prosecution)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tim Matheson (Killing Reagan)
    Laurence Fishburne (Madiba)
    Guy Pearce (When We Rise)
    Matthew Perry (The Kennedys: After Camelot)
    Harvey Fierstein (Hairspray Live!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jonathan Groff (Looking: The Movie)
    Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III)
    Jim Sturgess (Close to the Enemy)
    Woody Allen (Crisis in Six Scenes)
    Babou Ceesay (Guerilla)

  • Best Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies) — podcast
    Jessica Lange (Feud)
    Susan Sarandon (Feud)
    Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies)
    Carrie Coon (Fargo)
    Oprah Winfrey (The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Felicity Huffman (American Crime)
    Viola Davis (Custody)
    Joanne Froggatt (Dark Angel)
    Andrea Riseborough (Agatha Christie's The Witness for the Prosecution)
    Cynthia Nixon (Killing Reagan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Katie Holmes (The Kennedys: After Camelot)
    Freida Pinto (Guerilla)
    Lauren Graham (Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life)
    Sanaa Lathan (Shots Fired)
    Mary-Louise Parker (When We Rise)

    LONG SHOTS

    Idina Menzel (Beaches)
    Shirley MacLaine (Wild Oats)
    Bryce Dallas Howard (Black Mirror)
    Maddie Baillio (Hairspray Live!)
    Stana Katic (Sister Cities)

  • Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Stanley Tucci (Feud)
    Martin Freeman (Sherlock: The Lying Detective)
    Hank Azaria (The Wizard of Lies) — podcast
    Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies) — podcast posting this week
    Alfred Molina (Feud)
    Idris Elba (Guerilla) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    David Thewlis (Fargo)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (Fargo)
    Benito Martinez (American Crime)
    Reg E. Cathey (The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks)
    Michael K. Williams (The Night Of)
    James Cromwell (The Young Pope)
    Toby Jones (Sherlock: The Lying Detective)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Johnny Flynn (Genius)
    Alessandro Nivola (The Wizard of Lies)
    Tony Shalhoub (Custody)
    Bill Camp (The Night Of)
    Richard Dreyfuss (Shots Fired) — podcast
    Richard Cabral (American Crime)
    Connor Jessup (American Crime)

    LONG SHOTS

    Adam Scott (Big Little Lies)
    David Hyde Pierce (When We Rise)
    Cuba Gooding, Jr. (American Horror Story: Roanoke)
    Paul Sparks (The Night Of)
    Martin Short (Hairspray Live!)
    Martin Sheen (Anne of Green Gables)
    Alfred Molina (Close to the Enemy)

  • Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Regina King (American Crime)
    Michelle Pfeiffer (The Wizard of Lies)
    Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
    Judy Davis (Feud)
    Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Roanoke)
    Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Roanoke)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ellen Burstyn (Custody)
    Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Fargo)
    Shailene Woodley (Big Little Lies)
    Diane Keaton (The Young Pope)
    Lili Taylor (American Crime)
    Rose Byrne (The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks)
    Zoe Kravitz (Big Little Lies)
    Jeannie Berlin (The Night Of)
    Emily Watson (Genius)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Catherine Zeta-Jones (Feud)
    Jackie Hoffman (Feud)
    Romola Garai (Churchill's Secret)
    Helen Hunt (Shots Fired)
    Renee Elise Goldsberry (The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks)
    Carrie Preston (When We Rise)
    Sandra Oh (American Crime)
    Cherry Jones (American Crime)

    LONG SHOTS

    Catalina Sandino Moreno (Custody)
    Kim Cattrall (Agatha Christie's The Witness for the Prosecution)
    Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Roanoke)
    Jacki Weaver (Sister Cities)
    Miley Cyrus (Crisis in Six Scenes)
    Ariana Grande (Hairspray Live!)
    Jennifer Hudson (Hairspray Live!)
    Kristin Chenoweth (Hairspray Live!)

  • Best Variety Sketch Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Saturday Night Live (NBC)
    Portlandia (IFC)
    Documentary Now! (IFC)
    Drunk History (Comedy Central)
    Billy on the Street (TruTV)
    Tracey Ullman’s Show (HBO)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Maya & Marty (NBC)
    Comedy Bang! Bang! (IFC)
    Tosh.0 (Comedy Central)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Meltdown with Jonah and Kumail (Comedy Central)
    This Is Not Happening (Comedy Central)
    The Half Hour (Comedy Central)

    LONG SHOTS

    Whose Line Is It Anyway? (The CW)

  • Best Variety Talk Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Last Week Tonight (HBO)
    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
    Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
    The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
    Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)
    The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
    Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Watch What Happens Live (Bravo)
    Conan (TBS)
    Chelsea (Netflix)
    Last Call with Carson Daly (NBC)

    LONG SHOTS

    @midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)