Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
The Farewell (A24)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Little Women (Sony) NEW
Joker (Warner Bros.)

MAJOR THREATS

Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Waves (A24)
Uncut Gems (A24)

POSSIBILITIES

Downton Abbey (Focus Features)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside Attractions)
Judy (Roadside Attractions)
Hustlers (STX)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
The Banker (Apple) NEW

LONG SHOTS

Toy Story 4 (Disney)
Us (Universal)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
Booksmart (Annapurna)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
Give Me Liberty (Music Box) NEW

STILL TO SEE

1917 (Universal)
Ad Astra (Fox)
Cats (Universal)
Dark Waters (Focus Features)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)

MAJOR THREATS

Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast NEW
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
Jay Roach (Bombshell)

POSSIBILITIES

James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)

LONG SHOTS

Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
Michael Engler (Downton Abbey)
Rupert Goold (Judy)
Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Jon Favreau (The Lion King)

STILL TO SEE

J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
Bill Condon (The Good Liar)
Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell)
James Gray (Ad Astra)
Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
Tom Hooper (Cats)
Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
Sam Mendes (1917)

Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon)
Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast
Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)

LONG SHOTS

Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
Anthony Mackie (The Banker) NEW
Jimmie Fails (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

STILL TO SEE

Timothee Chalamet (The King) — podcast
Brian Cox (The Etruscan Smile)
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)
Ian McKellen (The Good Liar) — podcast
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast

POSSIBILITIES

Meryl Streep (The Laundromat) — podcast
Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)

LONG SHOTS

Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)
Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)
Noémie Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)

STILL TO SEE

Isabelle Huppert (Frankie) — podcast
Helen Mirren (The Good Liar) — podcast
Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
Mary Kay Place (Diane)
Kristen Stewart (Seberg) — podcast
Naomi Watts (Luce)

Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

MAJOR THREATS

Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast

LONG SHOTS

Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
Tim Blake Nelson (Just Mercy) NEW
Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
Billy Eichner (The Lion King)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker) — podcast NEW
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Waves)
Lucas Hedges (Waves) — podcast
Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon)

STILL TO SEE

Ian McKellen (Cats) — podcast
Tim Robbins (Dark Waters)

Best Supporting Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
Florence Pugh (Little Women) NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Annette Bening (The Report)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

POSSIBILITIES

Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Taylor Russell (Waves)
Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name)
Janelle Monae (Harriet)

LONG SHOTS

Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast NEW
Margaret Qualley (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Motherless Brooklyn)
Julianne Moore (After the Wedding)
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty) NEW

STILL TO SEE

Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
Judi Dench (Cats) — podcast
Anne Hathaway (Dark Waters)
Jennifer Hudson (Cats)
Marisa Tomei (Frankie)

Best Adapted Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)

POSSIBILITIES

Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
Judy (Tom Edge)
The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)

LONG SHOTS

Avengers: Endgame (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)
The Lion King (Brenda Chapman & Jeff Nathanson)
Gloria Bell (Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastian Lelio & Gonzala Maza)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois)

STILL TO SEE

Cats (Lee Hall & Tom Hooper)
Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
The Good Liar (Jeffrey Hatcher)
Richard Jewell (Billy Ray)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)

Best Original Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
Bombshell (Charles Randolph)

MAJOR THREATS

Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf)
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
Queen & Slim (Lena Waithe) — podcast
Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
The Report (Scott Z. Burns)
Midsommar (Ari Aster)
The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)

LONG SHOTS

The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz)
A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
Rocketman (Lee Hall)
The Banker (David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger)

STILL TO SEE

1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Ad Astra (James Gray & Ethan Gross)
Fast Color (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Frankie (Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias)
Her Smell (Alex Ross Perry)
High Life (Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Seberg (Joe Shrapnel & Anna Waterhouse)

Best Animated Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Funan (GKIDS)
Abominable (Universal)

MAJOR THREATS

Weathering With You (GKIDS)

POSSIBILITIES

Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

LONG SHOTS

The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

STILL TO COME

Frozen 2 (Disney)
Klaus (Netflix)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Lionsgate/Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

American Factory (Netflix)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
One Child Nation (Amazon)
The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
The Cave (National Geographic)

MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

The Kingmaker (Showtime)
Diego Maradona (HBO)
Knock Down the House (Netflix)
Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)
For Sama (PBS)
Maiden (Sony Classics)
Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu/Magnolia)
Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
The Great Hack (Netflix)
17 Blocks (MTV)

POSSIBILITIES

Cunningham (Magnolia)
Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
Mike Wallace Is Here (Magnolia)
David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)

LONG SHOTS

What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael (Juno)
American Dharma (Utopia)
The Black Godfather (Netflix)
Love, Antosha (self-distributed)

STILL TO SEE

5B (RYOT) NEW
Advocate (Film Movement) NEW
After Parkland (still seeking US distribution)
The All-Americans (Abramorama) NEW
The Apollo (HBO)
Aquarela (Sony Classics)
At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal (HBO) NEW
Black Mother (Grasshopper)
Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes (Eagle Rock) NEW
Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
Don't Be Nice (Juno)
Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
The Elephant Queen (Apple)
Emanuel (SDG)
Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops (HBO)
#Female Pleasure (Abramorama) NEW
Fiddlin' (Utopia)
The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions)
Gay Chorus Deep South (MTV)
The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube)
Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky)
Hail Satan? (Magnolia)
Honeyland (Neon)
Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Hottest August (Grasshopper)
Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound (still seeking U.S. distribution) NEW
Midnight Family (1091 Media)
Midnight Traveler (Oscilloscope)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (still seeking U.S. distribution) NEW
On the President's Orders (PBS)
The Proposal (Oscilloscope)
Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins (Magnolia)
Roll Red Roll (PBS)
Running With Beto (HBO)
The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama) NEW
They Shall Not Grow Old (Warner Bros.)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia)
Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama)

Best International Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
A White, White Day (Iceland)
Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)

MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

Papicha (Algeria)
The Traitor (Italy)
Invisible Life (Brazil)
Monos (Colombia)
Atlantics (Senegal)

POSSIBILITIES

Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Our Mothers (Belgium)
It Must Be Heaven (Palestine)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Incitement (Israel)
System Crasher (Germany)
And Then We Danced (Sweden)
Beanpole (Russia)
Gully Boy (India)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Weathering with You (Japan)

LONG SHOTS

Zana (Kosovo)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
The Whistlers (Romania)
The Chambermaid (Mexico)
Knuckle City (South Africa)
Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
Ne Zha (China)
The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
Let There Be Light (Slovakia)

Best Cinematography

FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)

MAJOR THREATS

The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux) NEW
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
Waves (Drew Daniels)

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
Rocketman (George Richmond)
Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
The Aeronauts (George Steel)
Harriet (John Toll)
Honey Boy (Natasha Braier)
Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)

LONG SHOTS

Pain and Glory (José Luis Alcaine)
Midsommar (Pawel Pogorzelski)
Us (Mike Gioulakis)
The Farewell (Anna Franquesa Solano)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Claire Mathon)
Hustlers (Todd Banhazl)
Downton Abbey (Ben Smithard)
Just Mercy (Brett Pawlak)

STILL TO COME

1917 (Roger Deakins)
Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Cats (Christopher Ross)
Dark Waters (Alex Howe)
Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
The Good Liar (Tobias A. Schliessler)
Richard Jewell (Yves Bélanger)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel)