Feinberg Forecast: First Read of the Post-Oscar Nominations Landscape

3:25 PM 1/13/2020

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his take on all 24 categories.

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These projections, which will be updated weekly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

  • Motion Picture

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony), David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino
    1917 (Universal), Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall
    The Irishman (Netflix), Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
    Parasite (Neon), Kwak Sin-ae and Bong Joon Ho
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight), Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi
    Joker (Warner Bros.), Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
    Marriage Story (Netflix), Noah Baumbach and David Heyman
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox), Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold
    Little Women (Sony), Amy Pascal

  • Director

    Emma McIntyre/Getty Images ; Kevin Winter/Getty Images; Franco Origlia/Getty Images; Jon Kopaloff/FilmMagic; Franco Origlia/Getty Images

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
    Sam Mendes, 1917
    Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
    Todd Phillips, Joker

  • Actor

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
    Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

  • Actress

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Renée Zellweger, Judy
    Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
    Charlize Theron, Bombshell
    Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
    Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

  • Actor in a Supporting Role

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
    Al Pacino, The Irishman
    Joe Pesci, The Irishman

  • Actress in a Supporting Role

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Laura Dern, Marriage Story
    Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
    Florence Pugh, Little Women
    Margot Robbie, Bombshell
    Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

  • Adapted Screenplay

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
    The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
    Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
    Little Women, Greta Gerwig
    The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten

  • Original Screenplay

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
    Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin-won
    Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
    1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
    Knives Out, Rian Johnson

  • Animated Feature

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar), Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks), Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
    I Lost My Body (Netflix), Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing), Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
    Klaus (Netflix), Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román

  • Documentary Feature

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    American Factory (Netflix), Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
    For Sama (PBS), Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
    The Cave (National Geographic), Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjaer
    Honeyland (Neon), Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
    The Edge of Democracy (Netflix), Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan

  • International Feature

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    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Misérables (France)
    Corpus Christi (Poland)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)

  • Cinematography

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    1917, Roger Deakins
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
    The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
    Joker, Lawrence Sher
    The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke

  • Costume Design

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
    The Irishman
    , Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
    Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
    Joker, Mark Bridges
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips

  • Film Editing

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
    Ford v Ferrari
    , Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
    Parasite, Yang Jin-mo
    Joker, Jeff Groth
    Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles

  • Makeup and Hairstyling

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
    Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
    1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
    Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White

  • Original Score

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    1917, Thomas Newman
    Joker
    , Hildur Gudnadóttir
    Marriage Story, Randy Newman
    Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams

  • Original Song

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman, music by Elton John; lyrics by Bernie Taupin
    "Stand Up," Harriet, music and lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
    "Into the Unknown," Frozen II, music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
    "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4, music and lyrics by Randy Newman
    "I'm Standing With You," Breakthrough, music and lyrics by Diane Warren

  • Production Design

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, production design: Barbara Ling; set decoration: Nancy Haigh
    1917, production design: Dennis Gassner; set decoration: Lee Sandales
    The Irishman, production design: Bob Shaw; set decoration: Regina Graves
    Jojo Rabbit, production design: Ra Vincent; set decoration: Nora Sopková
    Parasite, production design: Lee Ha-jun; set decoration: Cho Won-woo

  • Sound Editing

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Ford v Ferrari, Donald Sylvester
    1917, Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
    Joker, Alan Robert Murray
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Acord

  • Sound Mixing

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Ford v Ferrari, Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
    1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
    Joker, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
    Ad Astra, Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulanobr

  • Visual Effects

    Courtesy of Films

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
    The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
    Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
    1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy

  • Animated Short Film

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Hair Love, Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
    Kitbull, Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
    Sister, Siqi Song
    Dcera (Daughter), Daria Kashcheeva
    Memorable, Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corree

  • Documentary Short Subject

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl), Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
    Life Overtakes Me, John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
    St. Louis Superman, Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
    Walk Run Cha-Cha, Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
    In the Absence, Yi Seung-jun and Gary Byung-seok Kam

  • Live Action Short Film

    PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

    Brotherhood, Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
    The Neighbors' Window, Marshall Curry
    A Sister, Delphine Girard
    Nefta Football Club, Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
    Siria, Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre