Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Standings Post PGA and SAG Awards
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his take on all 24 categories.

These projections, which will be updated weekly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Motion Picture
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917 (Universal), Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall
Parasite (Neon), Kwak Sin-ae and Bong Joon Ho
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony), David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight), Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi
The Irishman (Netflix), Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
Joker (Warner Bros.), Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
Marriage Story (Netflix), Noah Baumbach and David Heyman
Ford v Ferrari (Fox), Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold
Little Women (Sony), Amy Pascal -
Director
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker -
Actor
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood -
Actress
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women -
Actor in a Supporting Role
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes -
Actress in a Supporting Role
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
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Adapted Screenplay
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten -
Original Screenplay
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin-won
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Knives Out, Rian Johnson -
Animated Feature
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Toy Story 4 (Pixar), Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks), Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
I Lost My Body (Netflix), Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing), Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
Klaus (Netflix), Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román -
Documentary Feature
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
American Factory (Netflix), Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
Honeyland (Neon), Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
For Sama (PBS), Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
The Cave (National Geographic), Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjaer
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix), Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan -
International Feature
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Misérables (France)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia) -
Cinematography
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke -
Costume Design
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips
Joker, Mark Bridges -
Film Editing
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Ford v Ferrari, Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Parasite, Yang Jin-mo
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth -
Makeup and Hairstyling
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White -
Original Score
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Thomas Newman
Joker, Hildur Gudnadóttir
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams -
Original Song
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman, music by Elton John; lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"Stand Up," Harriet, music and lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
"Into the Unknown," Frozen II, music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4, music and lyrics by Randy Newman
"I'm Standing With You," Breakthrough, music and lyrics by Diane Warren -
Production Design
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, production design: Barbara Ling; set decoration: Nancy Haigh
1917, production design: Dennis Gassner; set decoration: Lee Sandales
Parasite, production design: Lee Ha-jun; set decoration: Cho Won-woo
The Irishman, production design: Bob Shaw; set decoration: Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit, production design: Ra Vincent; set decoration: Nora Sopková -
Sound Editing
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Ford v Ferrari, Donald Sylvester
Joker, Alan Robert Murray
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Acord -
Sound Mixing
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Ford v Ferrari, Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
Joker, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
Ad Astra, Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulanobr -
Visual Effects
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy -
Animated Short Film
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Hair Love, Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
Kitbull, Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
Sister, Siqi Song
Dcera (Daughter), Daria Kashcheeva
Memorable, Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corree -
Documentary Short Subject
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl), Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Life Overtakes Me, John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
St. Louis Superman, Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
Walk Run Cha-Cha, Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
In the Absence, Yi Seung-jun and Gary Byung-seok Kam
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Live Action Short Film
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Brotherhood, Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
The Neighbors' Window, Marshall Curry
A Sister, Delphine Girard
Nefta Football Club, Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
Siria, Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre