These projections, which will be updated weekly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Motion Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917 (Universal), Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall
Parasite (Neon), Kwak Sin-ae and Bong Joon Ho
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony), David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight), Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi
Joker (Warner Bros.), Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
Ford v Ferrari (Fox), Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold
The Irishman (Netflix), Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
Marriage Story (Netflix), Noah Baumbach and David Heyman
Little Women (Sony), Amy Pascal -
Director
Image Credit: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images ; Kevin Winter/Getty Images; Franco Origlia/Getty Images; Jon Kopaloff/FilmMagic; Franco Origlia/Getty Images PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Sam Mendes, 1917
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker -
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes -
Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet -
Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman -
Actress in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Florence Pugh, Little Women -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin-won
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Knives Out, Rian Johnson -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Toy Story 4 (Pixar), Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
I Lost My Body (Netflix), Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus (Netflix), Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks), Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing), Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
American Factory (Netflix), Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
Honeyland (Neon), Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
The Cave (National Geographic), Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjaer
For Sama (PBS), Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix), Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Photos PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Corpus Christi (Poland) -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips
The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker, Mark Bridges -
Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Ford v Ferrari, Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Parasite, Yang Jin-mo
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Joker, Jeff Groth -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White -
Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Joker, Hildur Gudnadóttir
1917, Thomas Newman
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams -
Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman, music by Elton John; lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"Stand Up," Harriet, music and lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
"Into the Unknown," Frozen II, music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4, music and lyrics by Randy Newman
"I'm Standing With You," Breakthrough, music and lyrics by Diane Warren -
Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, production design: Barbara Ling; set decoration: Nancy Haigh
1917, production design: Dennis Gassner; set decoration: Lee Sandales
Parasite, production design: Lee Ha-jun; set decoration: Cho Won-woo
The Irishman, production design: Bob Shaw; set decoration: Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit, production design: Ra Vincent; set decoration: Nora Sopková -
Sound Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Ford v Ferrari, Donald Sylvester
Joker, Alan Robert Murray
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Acord -
Sound Mixing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Ford v Ferrari, Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
Joker, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
Ad Astra, Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulanobr -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of Films PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy -
Animated Short Film
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Hair Love, Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
Kitbull, Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
Sister, Siqi Song
Dcera (Daughter), Daria Kashcheeva
Memorable, Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corree -
Documentary Short Subject
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl), Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Life Overtakes Me, John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
St. Louis Superman, Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
Walk Run Cha-Cha, Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
In the Absence, Yi Seung-jun and Gary Byung-seok Kam
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Live Action Short Film
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
The Neighbors' Window, Marshall Curry
Brotherhood, Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Nefta Football Club, Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
A Sister, Delphine Girard
Siria, Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
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