Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings as 2019 Comes to a Close

8:20 AM 12/28/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.

The Farewell Still 1 - Publicity - H 2019
Courtesy of A24

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    1917 (Universal)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    Knives Out
    (Lionsgate)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
    A Hidden Life
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Little Women (Sony)
    Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
    Uncut Gems
    (A24)
    The Farewell (A24)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rocketman (Paramount)
    Bombshell
    (Lionsgate)
    Waves (A24)
    Richard Jewell
    (Warner Bros.)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Netflix)
    Harriet (Focus)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    Sam Mendes (1917)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Todd Phillips (Joker)
    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
    Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell)
    Jay Roach (Bombshell)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)

    POSSIBILITIES

    George MacKay (1917)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
    Daniel Craig (Knives Out)
    Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
    Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
    Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
    Dean-Charles Chapman (1917)
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
    Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
    Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast

    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
    Annette Bening (The Report)
    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
    Florence Pugh (Little Women)

    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

    Taylor Russell (Waves)

    Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
    Just Mercy
    (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
    Hustlers
    (Lorene Scafaria)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
    Richard Jewell
    (Billy Ray)
    Downton Abbey
    (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
    Toy Story 4
    (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    Knives Out
    (Rian Johnson)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    1917
    (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Bombshell
    (Charles Randolph)
    Honey Boy
    (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast
    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
    A Hidden Life
    (Terrence Malick)
    Waves
    (Trey Edward Shults)
    Uncut Gems
    (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    The Lighthouse
    (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
    Queen & Slim
    (Lena Waithe) — podcast

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Klaus (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
    Funan
    (GKIDS)
    Weathering With You (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Abominable (Universal)
    The Secret Life of Pets 2
    (Universal)
    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    For Sama (PBS)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Midnight Family (1091 Media)
    The Edge of Democracy
    (Netflix)
    Advocate (Film Movement)
    The Cave
    (National Geographic)
    Knock Down the House
    (Netflix)
    Maiden
    (Sony Classics)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Aquarela (Sony Classics)
    The Apollo
    (HBO)
    The Great Hack
    (Netflix)

  • Best International Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    Corpus Christi (Poland)
    Those Who Remained (Hungary)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Atlantics (Senegal)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)
    Beanpole
    (Russia)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)
    Truth and Justice (Estonia)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Roger Deakins)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Claire Mathon)
    The Lighthouse
    (Jarin Blaschke)
    The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
    Marriage Story
    (Robbie Ryan)
    Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
    Little Women
    (Yorick Le Saux)
    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
    Uncut Gems
    (Darius Khondji)
    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
    Waves
    (Drew Daniels)
    The Lion King
    (Caleb Deschanel)
    Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Aeronauts (George Steel)
    Harriet
    (John Toll)
    Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
    Rocketman (George Richmond)
    Ad Astra
    (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
    The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
    Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)
    Joker (Jeff Groth)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Parasite (Jinmo Yang)
    Jojo Rabbit
    (Tom Eagles)
    1917 (Lee Smith)
    Bombshell
    (Jon Poll)
    Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
    Uncut Gems
    (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube)
    Rocketman
    (Chris Dickens)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Avengers: Endgame (Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt)
    Little Women
    (Nick Houy)
    Knives Out
    (Bob Ducsay)
    Richard Jewell
    (Joel Cox)
    Just Mercy (Nat Sanders)
    The Farewell (Matt Friedman & Michael Taylor)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Billy Fox)
    A Hidden Life (Rehman Nizar Ali, Joe Gleason & Sebastian Jones)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bombshell
    Judy
    Rocketman

    Joker
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Dolemite Is My Name
    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    Little Women

    1917

    Downton Abbey

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Thomas Newman)
    Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
    Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
    Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami)
    Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
    Motherless Brooklyn
    (Daniel Pemberton)
    The King (Nicholas Britell)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Alan Silvestri)
    Pain and Glory
    (Alberto Iglesias)
    Us (Michael Abels)
    Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)
    The Farewell (Alex Weston)
    Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
    "Spirit" (The Lion King) — Beyonce Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
    "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
    "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
    "Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
    "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
    "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
    "Da Bronx" (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
    "Speechless" (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
    "A Glass of Soju" (Parasite) — Bong Joon Ho
    "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
    "Never Too Late" (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice
    "Catchy Song" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
    "High Above the Water" (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am) — Kathryn Bostic

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Lion King
    The Irishman

    1917
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Gemini Man

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Avengers: Endgame
    Captain Marvel
    Terminator: Dark Fate

    Alita: Battle Angel
    Cats