Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings Heading in to Golden Globes Weekend
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
1917 (Universal)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)MAJOR THREATS
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Little Women (Sony)
The Farewell (A24)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
Uncut Gems (A24)POSSIBILITIES
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Harriet (Focus) -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)MAJOR THREATS
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)POSSIBILITIES
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory) — podcast
Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Rian Johnson (Knives Out) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast
George MacKay (1917)
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari) -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast
Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Ana de Armas (Knives Out) -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)MAJOR THREATS
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Alan Alda (Marriage Story) — podcast
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)POSSIBILITIES
Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
Dean-Charles Chapman (1917)
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Annette Bening (The Report)MAJOR THREATS
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
Florence Pugh (Little Women) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)MAJOR THREATS
Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)POSSIBILITIES
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton) -
Best Original Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
Frozen 2 (Disney)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)MAJOR THREATS
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Funan (GKIDS)
Weathering With You (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Abominable (Universal)
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) -
Best Documentary Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
American Factory (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
One Child Nation (Amazon)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Midnight Family (1091 Media)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
The Cave (National Geographic)
Maiden (Sony Classics)
Advocate (Film Movement)
Honeyland (Neon)
Knock Down the House (Netflix)
Aquarela (Sony Classics)
The Apollo (HBO)
The Great Hack (Netflix) -
Best International Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Atlantics (Senegal)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Beanpole (Russia)
Truth and Justice (Estonia)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) -
Best Cinematography
FRONTRUNNERS
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)MAJOR THREATS
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)POSSIBILITIES
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)LONG SHOTS
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
The Aeronauts (George Steel)
Harriet (John Toll)
Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
Rocketman (George Richmond) -
Best Film Editing
FRONTRUNNERS
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)
Joker (Jeff Groth)MAJOR THREATS
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)
1917 (Lee Smith)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Little Women (Nick Houy)
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)POSSIBILITIES
Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube)
Knives Out (Bob Ducsay)
Bombshell (Jon Poll)
Rocketman (Chris Dickens) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
FRONTRUNNERS
Bombshell
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in HollywoodMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Dolemite Is My Name
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Little Women
1917
Downton Abbey -
Best Original Score
FRONTRUNNERS
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)
The King (Nicholas Britell)
Avengers: Endgame (Alan Silvestri)
Pain and Glory (Alberto Iglesias)
Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck)
Us (Michael Abels)
Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)
The Farewell (Alex Weston) -
Best Original Song
FRONTRUNNERS
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Spirit" (The Lion King) — Beyonce Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
"Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom YorkeMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
"Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
"Da Bronx" (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
"Speechless" (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
"A Glass of Soju" (Parasite) — Bong Joon Ho
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
"Never Too Late" (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice
"Catchy Song" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
"High Above the Water" (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am) — Kathryn Bostic -
Best Visual Effects
FRONTRUNNERS
The Lion King
The Irishman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Gemini ManMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Avengers: Endgame
Captain Marvel
Terminator: Dark Fate
Alita: Battle Angel
Cats