The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

• Best Picture

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
  The Irishman (Netflix)
  Parasite (Neon)
  Marriage Story (Netflix)
  1917 (Universal)
  Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
  Joker (Warner Bros.)
  The Two Popes (Netflix)
  Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
  Knives Out (Lionsgate)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
  Little Women (Sony)
  The Farewell (A24)
  A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
  Uncut Gems (A24)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
  Rocketman (Paramount)
  Bombshell (Lionsgate)
  Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
  Harriet (Focus)

• Best Director

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
  Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
  Sam Mendes (1917)
  Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Todd Phillips (Joker)
  Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
  Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
  James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory) — podcast
  Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
  Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
  Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
  Rian Johnson (Knives Out)

• Best Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
  Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
  Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
  Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
  Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
  Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
  Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
  Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast
  George MacKay (1917)
  Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
  Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
  Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
• Best Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
  Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
  Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
  Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
  Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast
  Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
  Ana de Armas (Knives Out)

• Best Supporting Actor

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
  Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
  Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
  Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
  Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
  Alan Alda (Marriage Story) — podcast
  Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
  Dean-Charles Chapman (1917)
  Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
  John Lithgow (Bombshell)
  Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actress

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
  Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
  Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
  Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
  Annette Bening (The Report)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
  Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
  Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
  Florence Pugh (Little Women) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
  Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
  Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
  Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
  Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
  The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
  Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
  Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
  A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
  Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
  Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
  Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)

• Best Original Screenplay

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
  Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
  Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
  The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
  1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
  Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
  Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
  Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
  Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
  Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
  The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
  A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
  Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
  The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)

• Best Animated Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
  Frozen 2 (Disney)
  How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
  I Lost My Body (Netflix)
  Klaus (Netflix)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
  Funan (GKIDS)
  Weathering With You (GKIDS)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Abominable (Universal)
  The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
  The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

   
• Best Documentary Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  American Factory (Netflix)
  For Sama (PBS)
  One Child Nation (Amazon)
  Apollo 11 (Neon)
  The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  Midnight Family (1091 Media)
  The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
  The Cave (National Geographic)
  Maiden (Sony Classics)
  Advocate (Film Movement)
  Honeyland (Neon)
  Knock Down the House (Netflix)
  Aquarela (Sony Classics)
  The Apollo (HBO)
  The Great Hack (Netflix)

• Best International Feature

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Parasite (South Korea)
  Pain and Glory (Spain)
  Les Miserables (France)
  Corpus Christi (Poland)
  Those Who Remained (Hungary)

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  Atlantics (Senegal)
  Honeyland (North Macedonia)
  Beanpole (Russia)
  Truth and Justice (Estonia)
  The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)

• Best Cinematography

  FRONTRUNNERS

  1917 (Roger Deakins)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
  The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
  Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
  Joker (Lawrence Sher)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
  Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)
  The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
  The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
  A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
  Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
  Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
  Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
  Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)

  LONG SHOTS

  The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
  The Aeronauts (George Steel)
  Harriet (John Toll)
  Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
  Rocketman (George Richmond)
• Best Film Editing

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
  The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
  Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)
  Joker (Jeff Groth)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Parasite (Jinmo Yang)
  1917 (Lee Smith)
  Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
  Little Women (Nick Houy)
  Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube)
  Knives Out (Bob Ducsay)
  Bombshell (Jon Poll)
  Rocketman (Chris Dickens)

• Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Bombshell
  Judy
  Rocketman
  Joker
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  Dolemite Is My Name
  Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
  Little Women
  1917
  Downton Abbey

• Best Original Score

  FRONTRUNNERS

  1917 (Thomas Newman)
  Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
  Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
  Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)
  Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
  Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)
  The King (Nicholas Britell)
  Avengers: Endgame (Alan Silvestri)
  Pain and Glory (Alberto Iglesias)
  Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck)
  Us (Michael Abels)
  Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)
  The Farewell (Alex Weston)
• Best Original Song

  FRONTRUNNERS

  "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
  "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
  "Spirit" (The Lion King) — Beyonce Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
  "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
  "Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
  "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
  "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
  "Da Bronx" (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
  "Speechless" (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
  "A Glass of Soju" (Parasite) — Bong Joon Ho
  "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
  "Never Too Late" (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice
  "Catchy Song" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
  "High Above the Water" (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am) — Kathryn Bostic

• Best Visual Effects

  FRONTRUNNERS

  The Lion King
  The Irishman
  1917
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  Gemini Man

  MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

  Avengers: Endgame
  Captain Marvel
  Terminator: Dark Fate
  Alita: Battle Angel
  Cats