Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings Heading in to Golden Globes Weekend

10:33 AM 1/3/2020

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.

1917_2_Still - Publicity - H 2019
François Duhamel/Universal Pictures

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    1917 (Universal)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    Knives Out
    (Lionsgate)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
    Little Women (Sony)
    The Farewell (A24)
    A Hidden Life
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Uncut Gems
    (A24)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
    Rocketman
    (Paramount)
    Bombshell
    (Lionsgate)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Netflix)
    Harriet (Focus)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Sam Mendes (1917)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Todd Phillips (Joker)
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory) — podcast
    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast
    George MacKay (1917)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast
    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
    Ana de Armas (Knives Out)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Dean-Charles Chapman (1917)
    Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast

    Annette Bening (The Report)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
    Florence Pugh (Little Women) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast

    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
    Just Mercy
    (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
    Motherless Brooklyn
    (Edward Norton)
    Toy Story 4
    (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    Knives Out
    (Rian Johnson)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    1917
    (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Uncut Gems
    (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
    Bombshell
    (Charles Randolph)
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco
    (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
    A Hidden Life
    (Terrence Malick)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    The Lighthouse
    (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Klaus (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
    Funan
    (GKIDS)
    Weathering With You (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Abominable (Universal)
    The Secret Life of Pets 2
    (Universal)
    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    For Sama (PBS)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Midnight Family (1091 Media)
    The Edge of Democracy
    (Netflix)
    The Cave
    (National Geographic)
    Maiden
    (Sony Classics)
    Advocate (Film Movement)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Knock Down the House
    (Netflix)
    Aquarela (Sony Classics)
    The Apollo
    (HBO)
    The Great Hack
    (Netflix)

  • Best International Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    Corpus Christi (Poland)
    Those Who Remained (Hungary)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Atlantics (Senegal)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)
    Beanpole
    (Russia)
    Truth and Justice (Estonia)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Roger Deakins)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
    Marriage Story
    (Robbie Ryan)
    The Lighthouse
    (Jarin Blaschke)
    The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
    Parasite
    (Hong Kyung-Po)
    Uncut Gems
    (Darius Khondji)
    Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
    Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
    The Aeronauts
    (George Steel)
    Harriet
    (John Toll)
    Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
    Rocketman (George Richmond)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
    The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
    Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)
    Joker (Jeff Groth)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Parasite (Jinmo Yang)
    1917 (Lee Smith)
    Jojo Rabbit
    (Tom Eagles)
    Little Women
    (Nick Houy)
    Uncut Gems
    (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    (Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube)
    Knives Out (Bob Ducsay)
    Bombshell (Jon Poll)
    Rocketman
    (Chris Dickens)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bombshell
    Judy
    Rocketman

    Joker
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Dolemite Is My Name
    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
    Little Women

    1917

    Downton Abbey

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Thomas Newman)
    Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
    Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
    Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)
    Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
    Motherless Brooklyn
    (Daniel Pemberton)
    The King (Nicholas Britell)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Alan Silvestri)
    Pain and Glory
    (Alberto Iglesias)
    Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck)
    Us (Michael Abels)
    Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)
    The Farewell (Alex Weston)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
    "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
    "Spirit" (The Lion King) — Beyonce Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
    "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
    "Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
    "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
    "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
    "Da Bronx" (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
    "Speechless" (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
    "A Glass of Soju" (Parasite) — Bong Joon Ho
    "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
    "Never Too Late" (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice
    "Catchy Song" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
    "High Above the Water" (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am) — Kathryn Bostic

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Lion King
    The Irishman

    1917
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Gemini Man

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Avengers: Endgame
    Captain Marvel
    Terminator: Dark Fate

    Alita: Battle Angel
    Cats