Feinberg Forecast: The Post-Toronto Landscape of the Oscar Race

12:49 PM 9/14/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg weighs in with his latest assessment.

'A Star Is Born'
'A Star Is Born'
Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    'Sorry to Bother You'
    'Sorry to Bother You'

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    A Star Is Born
    (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    Black Panther
    (Disney)
    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF

    MAJOR THREATS

    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
    Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF
    The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
    Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND, SXSW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
    Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
    Leave No Trace
    (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
    22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
    The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
    Wildlife (IFC) SUND, CANN, TIFF, NYFF
    White Boy Rick (Sony) TELL, TIFF

    STILL TO COME

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) VENI, NYFF
    Bird Box (Netflix)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
    On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
    Vice (Annapurna)

  • Best Director

    Bo Burnham, left, on the set of 'Eighth Grade'
    Bo Burnham, left, on the set of 'Eighth Grade'
    Linda Kallerus/A24

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Jacques Audiard (The Sisters Brothers)
    Ari Aster (Hereditary)
    Steve McQueen (Widows)
    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
    Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
    Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)
    Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

  • Best Actor

    Hugh Jackman in 'The Front Runner'
    Hugh Jackman in 'The Front Runner'

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
    Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
    Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
    Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
    John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Sisters Brothers)
    Oscar Isaac (Operation Finale)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Steve Carell (Vice)
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    Melissa McCarthy in 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    Melissa McCarthy in 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
    Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    Keira Knightley (Colette)
    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
    Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
    Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
    Hilary Swank (What They Had)
    Chloe Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
    Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
    Michelle Pfeiffer (Where Is Kyra?)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
    Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
    Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Timothee Chalamet, left, in 'Beautiful Boy'
    Timothee Chalamet, left, in 'Beautiful Boy'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick)
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
    Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
    Jamie Dornan (A Private War)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)
    Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
    Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
    Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
    Dominic West (Colette)
    Anders Danielsen Lie (22 July)
    Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Rupert Friend (At Eternity's Gate)
    Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
    Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
    Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
    Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
    Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
    Tom Waits (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Blythe Danner, left, in 'What They Had'
    Blythe Danner, left, in 'What They Had'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)
    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
    Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
    Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast NEW
    Blythe Danner (What They Had)
    Kayli Carter (Private Life)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
    Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
    Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
    Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
    Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)
    Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
    Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
    Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
    Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
    Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'Isle of Dogs'
    'Isle of Dogs'
    Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    White Fang (Netflix)
    Mirai (GKIDS)

    THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
    Next Gen (Netflix)
    Night Is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'RBG'
    'RBG'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
    Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
    Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Minding the Gap (Hulu) SUND
    Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
    The Sentence (HBO) SUND
    Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
    McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN

    THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
    Believer (HBO)
    The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
    Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND
    Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
    Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
    Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
    Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
    Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
    Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
    The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]

    Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
    In Search of Greatness (AOS)
    Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
    John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
    The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
    The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
    King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
    Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
    Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
    Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
    Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
    Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW
    The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
    The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
    Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
    Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
    Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
    Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
    They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
    Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
    Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Aquarela VENI, LOND
    Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
    The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
    Chef Flynn SUND
    The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
    The Elephant Queen TIFF
    Ghost Fleet TELL
    Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
    The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
    Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
    Mountain
    Saving Brinton
    Screwball TIFF
    The Silence of Others BERL
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
    Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    'Burning'
    'Burning'
    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST (drawn only from official submissions)

    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF NEW
    Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF NEW
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
    Sobibor [Russia] CANN NEW
    Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL NEW

    OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile] NEW
    Buffalo Boys [Singapore] NEW
    The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17] NEW
    Champions [Spain] NEW
    Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17] NEW
    Crystal Swan [Belarus]
    Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF NEW
    Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
    Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17] NEW
    The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia] NEW
    The Family [Venezuela]
    Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17] NEW
    The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN NEW
    Gutland [Luxembourg] NEW
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL NEW
    I Am Not a Witch
    [United Kingdom]
    I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
    The Interpreter [Slovakia]
    The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17] NEW
    The Marriage [Kosovo] NEW
    Namme [Georgia] NEW
    Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina] NEW
    Offenders [Serbia] NEW
    Peregrinacao [Portugal] NEW
    Polyxeni [Greece] NEW
    The Resistance Banker [Netherlands] NEW
    Ruben Blades Is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW NEW
    A Son of Man [Ecuador] NEW
    Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND  NEW 
    Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
    To Be Continued [Latvia] NEW
    The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF NEW
    What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
    The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
    Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]

    POTENTIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    3 Faces [Iran] (Kino Lorber) CANN, NYFF
    The Accused [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
    The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
    Asako I & II [Japan] TIFF, NYFF
    Ash Is Purest White [China] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
    At War [France] CANN
    Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
    Baby [China] TIFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] CANN, TIFF
    Capri-Revolution [Italy] VENI
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Daughter of Mine [Italy] BERL
    Divine Wind [Algeria] TIFF
    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Euphoria [France] CANN
    Eva [France] BERL
    A Faithful Man [France] TIFF, NYFF
    The Fall of the American Empire [Canada] (Sony Classics) TIFF
    A Family Tour [China] NYFF
    La Flor: Primera Parte [Argentina] NYFF
    The Gentle Indifference of the World [Kazakhstan] CANN
    Girls of the Sun [France] CANN, TIFF
    The Guilty [Denmark] SUND
    Happy as Lazzaro [Italy] CANN, NYFF, LOND
    The Harvesters [South Africa] CANN
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
    Hidden Man [China] TIFF
    Husband Material [India] TIFF
    The Image Book [France] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
    Knife + Heart [France] CANN
    Little Tickles [France] CANN
    Long Day's Journey Into Night [China] CANN, NYFF
    Loro [Italy] TIFF
    Manto [India] CANN, TIFF
    Maya [France] TIFF
    Mug [Poland] BERL
    My Favourite Fabric [Syria] CANN
    Pig [Iran] BERL
    Rafiki [Kenya] CANN, TIFF
    Season of the Devil [Philippines] BERL
    Shadow [China] VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Sorry Angel [France] CANN, NYFF
    The Stillness [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
    Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN

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