The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg weighs in with his latest assessment.

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

• Best Picture

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
  Black Panther (Disney)
  First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
  BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
  The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
  Green Book (Universal) TIFF
  Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
  A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
  Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF

  MAJOR THREATS

  Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
  If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
  Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
  Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF
  The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
  Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND, SXSW

  POSSIBILITIES

  Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
  Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
  Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
  22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
  The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
  Wildlife (IFC) SUND, CANN, TIFF, NYFF
  White Boy Rick (Sony) TELL, TIFF

  STILL TO COME

  The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) VENI, NYFF
  Bird Box (Netflix)
  Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
  Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
  Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
  On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
  Vice (Annapurna)

• Best Director

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
  Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
  Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
  Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
  Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
  Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
  Paul Greengrass (22 July)
  Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
  Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
  Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Jacques Audiard (The Sisters Brothers)
  Ari Aster (Hereditary)
  Steve McQueen (Widows)
  Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
  Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
  Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
  Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
  Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
  Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
  Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
  Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)
  Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

• Best Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Ryan Gosling (First Man)
  Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
  Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
  Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
  John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
  Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
  Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
  John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
  Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
  Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
  Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
  Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
  Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
  Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
  John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
  Joaquin Phoenix (The Sisters Brothers)
  Oscar Isaac (Operation Finale)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Christian Bale (Vice)
  Steve Carell (Vice)
  Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
  Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
• Best Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
  Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
  Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
  Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
  Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
  Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
  Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
  Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
  Toni Collette (Hereditary)
  Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
  Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
  Keira Knightley (Colette)
  KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Viola Davis (Widows)
  Charlize Theron (Tully)
  Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
  Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
  Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
  Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
  Hilary Swank (What They Had)
  Chloe Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
  Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
  Michelle Pfeiffer (Where Is Kyra?)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
  Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
  Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
  Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
  Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
  Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick)
  Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
  Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
  Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
  Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
  Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
  Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
  Jamie Dornan (A Private War)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)
  Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
  Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
  Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
  Robert Forster (What They Had)
  Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
  Dominic West (Colette)
  Anders Danielsen Lie (22 July)
  Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Rupert Friend (At Eternity's Gate)
  Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
  Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
  Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
  Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
  Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
  Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
  Tom Waits (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
  Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns)

• Best Supporting Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
  Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
  Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
  Marina de Tavira (Roma)
  Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
  Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
  Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
  Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
  Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
  Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast NEW
  Blythe Danner (What They Had)
  Kayli Carter (Private Life)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
  Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
  Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
  Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
  Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)
  Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
  Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
  Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Amy Adams (Vice)
  Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
  Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
  Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
  Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
  Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
• Best Animated Feature

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
  Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
  Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
  White Fang (Netflix)
  Mirai (GKIDS)

  THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

  Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
  The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
  Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
  Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
  Next Gen (Netflix)
  Night Is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
  Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
  Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
  Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
  Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)

• Best Documentary Feature

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST

  Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
  Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
  RBG (Magnolia) SUND
  Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
  Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
  The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
  Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
  Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
  Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Minding the Gap (Hulu) SUND
  Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
  The Sentence (HBO) SUND
  Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
  McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
  Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN

  THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

  Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
  Believer (HBO)
  The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
  Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Dark Money (PBS) SUND
  Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
  Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
  Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
  Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
  Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
  Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
  The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
  Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
  Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
  Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
  In Search of Greatness (AOS)
  Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
  Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
  John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
  The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
  The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
  King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
  Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
  Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
  Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
  Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
  Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW
  The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
  The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
  Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
  Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
  Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
  Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
  Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
  They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
  Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
  Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]

  STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

  American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Aquarela VENI, LOND
  Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
  The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
  Chef Flynn SUND
  The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
  The Elephant Queen TIFF
  Ghost Fleet TELL
  Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
  The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
  Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
  Mountain
  Saving Brinton
  Screwball TIFF
  The Silence of Others BERL
  What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
  Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF

• Best Foreign Language Film

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST (drawn only from official submissions)

  Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF NEW
  Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
  Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF
  Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF NEW
  Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
  Sobibor [Russia] CANN NEW
  Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL NEW

  OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

  And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile] NEW
  Buffalo Boys [Singapore] NEW
  The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17] NEW
  Champions [Spain] NEW
  Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17] NEW
  Crystal Swan [Belarus]
  Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF NEW
  Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
  Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17] NEW
  The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia] NEW
  The Family [Venezuela]
  Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17] NEW
  The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN NEW
  Gutland [Luxembourg] NEW
  The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL NEW
  I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
  I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
  The Interpreter [Slovakia]
  The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17] NEW
  The Marriage [Kosovo] NEW
  Namme [Georgia] NEW
  Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina] NEW
  Offenders [Serbia] NEW
  Peregrinacao [Portugal] NEW
  Polyxeni [Greece] NEW
  The Resistance Banker [Netherlands] NEW
  Ruben Blades Is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW NEW
  A Son of Man [Ecuador] NEW
  Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND   NEW  
  Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
  To Be Continued [Latvia] NEW
  The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF NEW
  What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
  The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
  Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]

  POTENTIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

  3 Faces [Iran] (Kino Lorber) CANN, NYFF
  The Accused [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
  The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
  Asako I & II [Japan] TIFF, NYFF
  Ash Is Purest White [China] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
  At War [France] CANN
  Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
  Baby [China] TIFF
  Capernaum [Lebanon] CANN, TIFF
  Capri-Revolution [Italy] VENI
  Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Daughter of Mine [Italy] BERL
  Divine Wind [Algeria] TIFF
  Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Euphoria [France] CANN
  Eva [France] BERL
  A Faithful Man [France] TIFF, NYFF
  The Fall of the American Empire [Canada] (Sony Classics) TIFF
  A Family Tour [China] NYFF
  La Flor: Primera Parte [Argentina] NYFF
  The Gentle Indifference of the World [Kazakhstan] CANN
  Girls of the Sun [France] CANN, TIFF
  The Guilty [Denmark] SUND
  Happy as Lazzaro [Italy] CANN, NYFF, LOND
  The Harvesters [South Africa] CANN
  The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
  Hidden Man [China] TIFF
  Husband Material [India] TIFF
  The Image Book [France] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
  Knife + Heart [France] CANN
  Little Tickles [France] CANN
  Long Day's Journey Into Night [China] CANN, NYFF
  Loro [Italy] TIFF
  Manto [India] CANN, TIFF
  Maya [France] TIFF
  Mug [Poland] BERL
  My Favourite Fabric [Syria] CANN
  Pig [Iran] BERL
  Rafiki [Kenya] CANN, TIFF
  Season of the Devil [Philippines] BERL
  Shadow [China] VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Sorry Angel [France] CANN, NYFF
  The Stillness [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
  Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN