Feinberg Forecast: The Post-Toronto Landscape of the Oscar Race
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg weighs in with his latest assessment.

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
GLOSSARY The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Black Panther (Disney)
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFFMAJOR THREATS
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF
The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND, SXSWPOSSIBILITIES
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Wildlife (IFC) SUND, CANN, TIFF, NYFF
White Boy Rick (Sony) TELL, TIFFSTILL TO COME
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) VENI, NYFF
Bird Box (Netflix)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Vice (Annapurna) -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)MAJOR THREATS
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)POSSIBILITIES
Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Jacques Audiard (The Sisters Brothers)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)
Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)POSSIBILITIES
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Sisters Brothers)
Oscar Isaac (Operation Finale)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Steve Carell (Vice)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)MAJOR THREATS
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Keira Knightley (Colette)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)POSSIBILITIES
Viola Davis (Widows)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Hilary Swank (What They Had)
Chloe Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Where Is Kyra?)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)MAJOR THREATS
Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick)
Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
Jamie Dornan (A Private War)POSSIBILITIES
Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
Robert Forster (What They Had)
Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
Dominic West (Colette)
Anders Danielsen Lie (22 July)
Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Rupert Friend (At Eternity's Gate)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
Tom Waits (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns) -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)MAJOR THREATS
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast NEW
Blythe Danner (What They Had)
Kayli Carter (Private Life)POSSIBILITIES
Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
White Fang (Netflix)
Mirai (GKIDS)THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)
Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
Next Gen (Netflix)
Night Is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.) -
Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
RBG (Magnolia) SUND
Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
Minding the Gap (Hulu) SUND
Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
The Sentence (HBO) SUND
Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANNTHE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)
Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
Believer (HBO)
The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
Dark Money (PBS) SUND
Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
In Search of Greatness (AOS)
Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW
The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Aquarela VENI, LOND
Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
Chef Flynn SUND
The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
The Elephant Queen TIFF
Ghost Fleet TELL
Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
Mountain
Saving Brinton
Screwball TIFF
The Silence of Others BERL
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF -
Best Foreign Language Film
PROJECTED SHORTLIST (drawn only from official submissions)
Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF NEW
Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF
Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF NEW
Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
Sobibor [Russia] CANN NEW
Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL NEWOTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)
And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile] NEW
Buffalo Boys [Singapore] NEW
The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17] NEW
Champions [Spain] NEW
Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17] NEW
Crystal Swan [Belarus]
Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF NEW
Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17] NEW
The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia] NEW
The Family [Venezuela]
Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17] NEW
The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN NEW
Gutland [Luxembourg] NEW
The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL NEW
I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
The Interpreter [Slovakia]
The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17] NEW
The Marriage [Kosovo] NEW
Namme [Georgia] NEW
Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina] NEW
Offenders [Serbia] NEW
Peregrinacao [Portugal] NEW
Polyxeni [Greece] NEW
The Resistance Banker [Netherlands] NEW
Ruben Blades Is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW NEW
A Son of Man [Ecuador] NEW
Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND NEW
Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
To Be Continued [Latvia] NEW
The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF NEW
What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]POTENTIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)
3 Faces [Iran] (Kino Lorber) CANN, NYFF
The Accused [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
Asako I & II [Japan] TIFF, NYFF
Ash Is Purest White [China] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
At War [France] CANN
Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
Baby [China] TIFF
Capernaum [Lebanon] CANN, TIFF
Capri-Revolution [Italy] VENI
Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Daughter of Mine [Italy] BERL
Divine Wind [Algeria] TIFF
Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Euphoria [France] CANN
Eva [France] BERL
A Faithful Man [France] TIFF, NYFF
The Fall of the American Empire [Canada] (Sony Classics) TIFF
A Family Tour [China] NYFF
La Flor: Primera Parte [Argentina] NYFF
The Gentle Indifference of the World [Kazakhstan] CANN
Girls of the Sun [France] CANN, TIFF
The Guilty [Denmark] SUND
Happy as Lazzaro [Italy] CANN, NYFF, LOND
The Harvesters [South Africa] CANN
The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
Hidden Man [China] TIFF
Husband Material [India] TIFF
The Image Book [France] CANN, TIFF, NYFF
Knife + Heart [France] CANN
Little Tickles [France] CANN
Long Day's Journey Into Night [China] CANN, NYFF
Loro [Italy] TIFF
Manto [India] CANN, TIFF
Maya [France] TIFF
Mug [Poland] BERL
My Favourite Fabric [Syria] CANN
Pig [Iran] BERL
Rafiki [Kenya] CANN, TIFF
Season of the Devil [Philippines] BERL
Shadow [China] VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Sorry Angel [France] CANN, NYFF
The Stillness [Argentina] VENI, TIFF
Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN