The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg projects that the nomination leaders will be 'The Irishman' (11), '1917' (10), 'Joker' (10) and 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' (9).

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

• Best Picture

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
  The Irishman (Netflix)
  1917 (Universal)
  Parasite (Neon)
  Marriage Story (Netflix)
  Joker (Warner Bros.)
  Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
  Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
  Knives Out (Lionsgate)
  Uncut Gems (A24)

  ALTERNATE

  Little Women (Sony)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  The Two Popes (Netflix)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Honey Boy (Amazon)

• Best Director

   

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
  Sam Mendes (1917)
  Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
  Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

  ALTERNATE

  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Todd Phillips (Joker)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)

• Best Actor

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
  Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
  Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
  Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast
• Best Actress

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
  Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
  Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
  Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
  Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Florence Pugh (Midsommar) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actor

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
  Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
  Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
  Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

  ALTERNATE

  Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

• Best Supporting Actress

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
  Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
  Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
  Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
  Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

  ALTERNATE

  Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
  Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
  The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
  Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
  Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)

• Best Original Screenplay

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
  Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
  Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
  1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
  Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

  ALTERNATE

  The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)

• Best Animated Feature

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
  Frozen 2 (Disney)
  How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
  I Lost My Body (Netflix)
  Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

  ALTERNATE

  Klaus (Netflix)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Funan (GKIDS)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Abominable (Universal)
• Best Documentary Feature

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  American Factory (Netflix)
  For Sama (PBS)
  Apollo 11 (Neon)
  Honeyland (Neon)
  Midnight Family (1091 Media)

  ALTERNATE

  One Child Nation (Amazon)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Maiden (Sony Classics)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  The Kingmaker (Showtime)

• Best International Feature

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Parasite (South Korea)
  Pain and Glory (Spain)
  Les Miserables (France)
  The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
  Truth and Justice (Estonia)

  ALTERNATE

  Atlantics (Senegal)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Corpus Christi (Poland)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)

• Best Cinematography

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  1917 (Roger Deakins)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
  The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
  Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
  Joker (Lawrence Sher)

  ALTERNATE

  Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
• Best Costume Design

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Irishman (Christopher Peterson & Sandy Powell) — podcast (Powell)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
  Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
  Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
  Dolemite Is My Name (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  Rocketman (Julian Day)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Joker (Mark Bridges)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Hustlers (Mitchell Travers)

• Best Film Editing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
  Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
  Joker (Jeff Groth)
  Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)

  ALTERNATE

  Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)

• Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Bombshell
  Rocketman
  Joker
  Judy
  1917

  ALTERNATE

  Dolemite Is My Name

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
• Best Original Score

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  1917 (Thomas Newman)
  Marriage Story (Randy Newman) — podcast
  Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
  Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

  ALTERNATE

  Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Waves (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)

• Best Original Song

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
  "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin — podcast (John)
  "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
  "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
  "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren — podcast

  ALTERNATE

  "Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  "One Life" (Yesterday) — Ed Sheeran

• Best Production Design

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Nancy Haigh & Barbara Ling)
  1917 (Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales)
  The Irishman (Regina Graves & Bob Shaw)
  Jojo Rabbit (Ra Vincent)
  Joker (Mark Friedberg)

  ALTERNATE

  Parasite (Lee Ha-Jun)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  The Two Popes (Mark Tildesley)

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Ford v Ferrari (François Audouy)
• Best Sound Editing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Ford v Ferrari
  Rocketman
  1917
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  Joker

  ALTERNATE

  Avengers: Endgame

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Uncut Gems

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Apollo 11

• Best Sound Mixing

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Ford v Ferrari
  Rocketman
  1917
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  Joker

  ALTERNATE

  Avengers: Endgame

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Uncut Gems

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Apollo 11

• Best Visual Effects

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  The Lion King
  The Irishman
  1917
  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  Gemini Man

  ALTERNATE

  Avengers: Endgame

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Terminator: Dark Fate

  SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

  Rocketman
• Best Animated Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Hair Love (Sony Animation)
  Kitbull (Pixar)
  Sister (Calarts)
  The Physics of Sorrow (National Film Board of Canada)
  Dcera (Daughter) (FAMU)

  ALTERNATE

  Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (National Film Board of Canada)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Mémorable (Vivement Lundi)

• Best Documentary Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (A&E)
  Fire in Paradise (Netflix)
  After Maria (Netflix)
  St. Louis Superman (MTV)
  The Nightcrawlers (NatGeo)

  ALTERNATE

  Stay Close (POV)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Walk Run Cha-Cha (The New York Times: Op-Docs)

• Best Live Action Short

  PROJECTED NOMINEES

  Brotherhood (Cinétéléfilms & Midi la Nuit)
  Refugee (Radiant Studios)
  The Neighbors' Window (Marshall Curry Productions)
  Little Hands (UniFrance & MUBI)
  Miller & Son (AFI Conservatory)

  ALTERNATE

  A Sister (The Animation Showcase)

  POTENTIAL SURPRISE

  Nefta Football Club (Les Valseurs)