Feinberg Forecast: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg projects that the nomination leaders will be 'The Irishman' (11), '1917' (10), 'Joker' (10) and 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' (9).

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.
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Best Picture
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
1917 (Universal)
Parasite (Neon)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Uncut Gems (A24)ALTERNATE
Little Women (Sony)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
The Two Popes (Netflix)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Honey Boy (Amazon)
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Best Director
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)ALTERNATE
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Todd Phillips (Joker)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
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Best Actor
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcastALTERNATE
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast
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Best Actress
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcastALTERNATE
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Supporting Actor
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)ALTERNATE
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
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Best Supporting Actress
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)ALTERNATE
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
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Best Adapted Screenplay
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcastALTERNATE
Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
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Best Original Screenplay
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)ALTERNATE
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
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Best Animated Feature
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
Frozen 2 (Disney)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)ALTERNATE
Klaus (Netflix)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Funan (GKIDS)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Abominable (Universal)
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Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED NOMINEES
American Factory (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
Honeyland (Neon)
Midnight Family (1091 Media)ALTERNATE
One Child Nation (Amazon)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Maiden (Sony Classics)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
The Kingmaker (Showtime)
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Best International Feature
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Truth and Justice (Estonia)ALTERNATE
Atlantics (Senegal)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Corpus Christi (Poland)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)
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Best Cinematography
PROJECTED NOMINEES
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)ALTERNATE
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
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Best Costume Design
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Irishman (Christopher Peterson & Sandy Powell) — podcast (Powell)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Dolemite Is My Name (Ruth E. Carter) — podcastALTERNATE
Rocketman (Julian Day)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Joker (Mark Bridges)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Hustlers (Mitchell Travers)
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Best Film Editing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)ALTERNATE
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Bombshell
Rocketman
Joker
Judy
1917ALTERNATE
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Original Score
PROJECTED NOMINEES
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman) — podcast
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)ALTERNATE
Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Waves (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
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Best Original Song
PROJECTED NOMINEES
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin — podcast (John)
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren — podcastALTERNATE
"Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
"Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
"One Life" (Yesterday) — Ed Sheeran
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Best Production Design
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Nancy Haigh & Barbara Ling)
1917 (Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales)
The Irishman (Regina Graves & Bob Shaw)
Jojo Rabbit (Ra Vincent)
Joker (Mark Friedberg)ALTERNATE
Parasite (Lee Ha-Jun)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
The Two Popes (Mark Tildesley)
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
Ford v Ferrari (François Audouy)
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Best Sound Editing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
JokerALTERNATE
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Sound Mixing
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
JokerALTERNATE
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Visual Effects
PROJECTED NOMINEES
The Lion King
The Irishman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Gemini ManALTERNATE
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA
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Best Animated Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Hair Love (Sony Animation)
Kitbull (Pixar)
Sister (Calarts)
The Physics of Sorrow (National Film Board of Canada)
Dcera (Daughter) (FAMU)ALTERNATE
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (National Film Board of Canada)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Mémorable (Vivement Lundi)
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Best Documentary Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (A&E)
Fire in Paradise (Netflix)
After Maria (Netflix)
St. Louis Superman (MTV)
The Nightcrawlers (NatGeo)ALTERNATE
Stay Close (POV)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Walk Run Cha-Cha (The New York Times: Op-Docs)
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Best Live Action Short
PROJECTED NOMINEES
Brotherhood (Cinétéléfilms & Midi la Nuit)
Refugee (Radiant Studios)
The Neighbors' Window (Marshall Curry Productions)
Little Hands (UniFrance & MUBI)
Miller & Son (AFI Conservatory)ALTERNATE
A Sister (The Animation Showcase)
POTENTIAL SURPRISE
Nefta Football Club (Les Valseurs)