Feinberg Forecast: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

3:31 PM 1/11/2020

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg projects that the nomination leaders will be 'The Irishman' (11), '1917' (10), 'Joker' (10) and 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' (9).

oscar statuettes - Getty - H 2018
Christopher Polk/Getty Images

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    1917 (Universal)
    Parasite (Neon)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    Knives Out
    (Lionsgate)
    Uncut Gems (A24)

    ALTERNATE

    Little Women (Sony)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    The Two Popes (Netflix)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Honey Boy (Amazon)

  • Best Director

     

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Sam Mendes (1917)
    Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

    ALTERNATE

    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Todd Phillips (Joker)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)

  • Best Actor

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Renée Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Lupita Nyong'o (Us) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Florence Pugh (Midsommar) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    ALTERNATE

    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

    ALTERNATE

    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
    1917
    (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
    Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

    ALTERNATE

    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)

  • Best Animated Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

    ALTERNATE

    Klaus (Netflix)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Funan (GKIDS)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Abominable (Universal)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    American Factory (Netflix)
    For Sama (PBS)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Midnight Family
    (1091 Media)

    ALTERNATE

    One Child Nation (Amazon)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Maiden (Sony Classics)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Kingmaker (Showtime)

  • Best International Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)
    Truth and Justice (Estonia)

    ALTERNATE

    Atlantics (Senegal)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Corpus Christi (Poland)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)

  • Best Cinematography

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    1917 (Roger Deakins)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)

    ALTERNATE

    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)

  • Best Costume Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Irishman (Christopher Peterson & Sandy Powell) — podcast (Powell)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
    Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
    Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
    Dolemite Is My Name (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Rocketman (Julian Day)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Joker (Mark Bridges)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Hustlers (Mitchell Travers)

  • Best Film Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
    Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
    Joker (Jeff Groth)
    Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame)

    ALTERNATE

    Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Bombshell
    Rocketman

    Joker

    Judy

    1917

    ALTERNATE

    Dolemite Is My Name

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

  • Best Original Score

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    1917 (Thomas Newman)
    Marriage Story (Randy Newman) — podcast
    Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
    Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

    ALTERNATE

    Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Waves (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)

  • Best Original Song

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
    "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin — podcast (John)
    "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
    "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
    "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    "Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    "One Life" (Yesterday) — Ed Sheeran

  • Best Production Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Nancy Haigh & Barbara Ling)
    1917 (Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales)
    The Irishman (Regina Graves & Bob Shaw)
    Jojo Rabbit (Ra Vincent)
    Joker (Mark Friedberg)

    ALTERNATE

    Parasite (Lee Ha-Jun)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    The Two Popes (Mark Tildesley)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Ford v Ferrari (François Audouy)

  • Best Sound Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Ford v Ferrari
    Rocketman
    1917
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Joker

    ALTERNATE

    Avengers: Endgame

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Uncut Gems

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Apollo 11

  • Best Sound Mixing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Ford v Ferrari
    Rocketman
    1917
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Joker

    ALTERNATE

    Avengers: Endgame

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Uncut Gems

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Apollo 11

  • Best Visual Effects

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Lion King
    The Irishman

    1917
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Gemini Man

    ALTERNATE

    Avengers: Endgame

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Terminator: Dark Fate

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Rocketman

  • Best Animated Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Hair Love (Sony Animation)
    Kitbull (Pixar)
    Sister (Calarts)
    The Physics of Sorrow (National Film Board of Canada)
    Dcera (Daughter) (FAMU)

    ALTERNATE

    Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (National Film Board of Canada)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Mémorable (Vivement Lundi)

  • Best Documentary Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (A&E)
    Fire in Paradise (Netflix)
    After Maria (Netflix)
    St. Louis Superman (MTV)
    The Nightcrawlers (NatGeo)

    ALTERNATE

    Stay Close (POV)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Walk Run Cha-Cha (The New York Times: Op-Docs)

  • Best Live Action Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Brotherhood (Cinétéléfilms & Midi la Nuit)
    Refugee (Radiant Studios)
    The Neighbors' Window (Marshall Curry Productions)
    Little Hands (UniFrance & MUBI)
    Miller & Son (AFI Conservatory)

    ALTERNATE

    A Sister (The Animation Showcase)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Nefta Football Club (Les Valseurs)