Feinberg Forecast: The Oscar Race Post-Gotham Awards Ceremony and NBR Awards Announcement

5:38 PM 12/3/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections, which now include the original score, original song and visual effects categories.

The Irishman - Publicity Still - H 2019
Courtesy of Netflix

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    1917 (Universal) NEW
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    The Farewell (A24)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bombshell (Lionsgate)
    Richard Jewell
    (Warner Bros.)
    Just Mercy
    (Warner Bros.)
    Little Women (Sony)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    (Sony)
    Honey Boy (Amazon)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Knives Out (Lionsgate) NEW
    Rocketman (Paramount)
    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
    A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
    Uncut Gems
    (A24)
    Waves (A24)

    LONG SHOTS

    Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix) NEW
    Downton Abbey (Focus)
    Hustlers
    (STX)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside)
    Harriet (Focus)
    Dark Waters (Focus)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Sam Mendes (1917) NEW
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Todd Phillips (Joker)
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
    Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell)
    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
    Jay Roach (Bombshell)
    Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)

    LONG SHOTS

    Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
    Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out) NEW
    Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
    Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
    George MacKay (1917) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
    Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Daniel Craig (Knives Out) NEW
    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)
    Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
    Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
    Florence Pugh (Midsommar)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
    Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
    Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
    Ana de Armas (Knives Out) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
    Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
    Mary Kay Place (Diane)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
    Dean-Charles Chapman (1917) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
    Ray Liotta (Marriage Story)

    LONG SHOTS

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
    Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
    Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
    Bill Camp (Dark Waters)
    Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
    Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast

    Annette Bening (The Report)
    Florence Pugh (Little Women)
    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name)
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
    Taylor Russell (Waves)

    LONG SHOTS

    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
    Claire Duburcq (1917) NEW
    Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty)
    Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
    Richard Jewell
    (Billy Ray)
    Hustlers
    (Lorene Scafaria)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
    Downton Abbey
    (Julian Fellowes) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
    Judy (Tom Edge)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
    Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns) NEW
    Knives Out (Rian Johnson) NEW
    Uncut Gems
    (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Bombshell
    (Charles Randolph)
    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
    The Lighthouse
    (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Queen & Slim
    (Lena Waithe) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz)
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco
    (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
    The Report
    (Scott Z. Burns)
    Midsommar
    (Ari Aster)
    A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
    Harriet
    (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
    Rocketman (Lee Hall)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Klaus (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Funan (GKIDS)
    Weathering With You
    (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Abominable (Universal)
    Missing Link
    (United Artists Releasing)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    For Sama (PBS)
    The Kingmaker (Showtime)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    The Edge of Democracy (Netflix) NEW
    The Cave
    (National Geographic)
    Sea of Shadows
    (National Geographic)
    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
    The Apollo
    (HBO) NEW
    Diego Maradona (HBO)
    Ask Dr. Ruth
    (Hulu/Magnolia)
    5B (RYOT)
    Mike Wallace Is Here
    (Magnolia)
    Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Maiden (Sony Classics)
    Knock Down the House
    (Netflix)
    The Great Hack
    (Netflix)
    Cunningham
    (Magnolia)
    Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
    Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia)

    LONG SHOTS

    David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)
    The Black Godfather (Netflix)
    American Dharma
    (Utopia)
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
    (Juno)
    Love, Antosha (self-distributed)
    The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley (HBO) NEW
    Fyre: The Greatest Party That Never Happened (Netflix) NEW

    STILL TO SEE

    Advocate (Film Movement)
    After Parkland
    (Kino Lorber)
    The All-Americans (Abramorama)
    Aquarela (Sony Classics)
    At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal (HBO)
    Black Mother (Grasshopper)
    Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes (Eagle Rock)
    Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
    Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
    Don't Be Nice (Juno)
    Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
    The Elephant Queen (Apple)
    Emanuel (SDG)
    Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops (HBO)
    #Female Pleasure (Abramorama)
    Fiddlin' (Utopia)
    The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions)
    Gay Chorus Deep South
    (MTV)
    The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube)
    Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky)
    Hail Satan? (Magnolia)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    The Hottest August (Grasshopper)
    Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
    Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    Midnight Family (1091 Media)
    Midnight Traveler
    (Oscilloscope)
    Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool (Abramorama)
    Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    On the President's Orders (PBS)
    The Proposal (Oscilloscope)
    Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins
    (Magnolia)
    Roll Red Roll (PBS)
    Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese (Netflix)
    Running With Beto (HBO)
    The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
    They Shall Not Grow Old (Warner Bros.)
    Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
    Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
    Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama)

  • Best International Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    Invisible Life (Brazil)
    Corpus Christi (Poland)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Incitement (Israel)
    Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
    Monos
    (Colombia)
    Atlantics
    (Senegal)
    A White, White Day (Iceland)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Traitor (Italy)
    Papicha
    (Algeria)
    Instinct (Netherlands)
    1982 (Lebanon) NEW
    Gully Boy (India)
    Those Who Remained
    (Hungary)
    Our Mothers
    (Belgium)
    It Must Be Heaven
    (Palestine)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)
    System Crasher (Germany)
    And Then We Danced (Sweden)
    Beanpole (Russia)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
    Weathering with You
    (Japan)
    Zana
    (Kosovo)
    Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
    Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
    The Whistlers (Romania)
    The Chambermaid (Mexico)
    Ne Zha (China)
    The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
    Let There Be Light (Slovakia)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Roger Deakins) NEW
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)
    The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
    Marriage Story
    (Robbie Ryan)
    Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
    Little Women
    (Yorick Le Saux)
    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
    The Painted Bird
    (Vladimir Smutny)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
    Uncut Gems
    (Darius Khondji)
    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
    Waves
    (Drew Daniels)
    The Lion King
    (Caleb Deschanel)
    Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)
    Honey Boy (Natasha Braier)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Aeronauts (George Steel)
    Harriet
    (John Toll)
    Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
    Rocketman (George Richmond)
    Ad Astra
    (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
    Seberg (Rachel Morrison) NEW

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    1917 (Thomas Newman)
    Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
    Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
    Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami)
    Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
    The Two Popes
    (Bryce Dessner)
    Parasite (Jung Jae-il)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Alan Silvestri)
    The Irishman (Robbie Robertson)
    A Hidden Life (James Newton Howard)
    Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)
    Knives Out
    (Nathan Johnson)
    Toy Story 4
    (Randy Newman)
    Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Waves (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
    The Aeronauts (Steven Price)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (John Powell)
    Harriet (Terence Blanchard)
    The Farewell (Alex Weston)
    Uncut Gems (Oneohtrix Point Never)
    Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Bomar)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Nate Heller)
    Pain and Glory
    (Alberto Iglesias)
    Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)

    LONG SHOTS

    Richard Jewell (Arturo Sandoval)
    Downton Abbey
    (John Lunn)
    Us
    (Michael Abels)
    The King (Nicholas Britell)
    Spider-Man: Far From Home (Michael Giacchino)
    Just Mercy (Joel P. West)
    Captain Marvel (Pinar Toprak)
    Honey Boy (Alex Somers)
    Dark Waters (Marcelo Zarvos)
    Abominable (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    The Song of Names (Howard Shore)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
    "Spirit" (The Lion King) — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
    "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
    "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
    "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Speechless" (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
    "Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
    "A Human Touch" (5B) — Jackson Browne, Steve McEwan & Leslie Mendelson
    "One Life" (Yesterday) — Ed Sheeran
    "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
    "Catchy Song" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
    "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
    "Never Too Late" (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Swan Song" (Alita: Battle Angel) — Robin Fredriksson, Thomas Holkenborg, Mattias Larsson, Dua Lipa, Kennedi Lykken & Justin Tranter
    "Super Cool" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — David Greenbaum, Beck Hansen, Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, Jorma Taccone
    "One Little Soldier" (Bombshell) — Regina Spektor
    "For You My Love (O Bandeya)" (Blinded by the Light) — A.R. Rahman, Shellee & Rianjali
    "I Punched Keanu Reeves" (Always Be My Maybe) — Randall Park & Daniel M. Nakamura
    "Daily Battles" (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom Yorke
    "Together From Afar" (How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World) — Jonsi
    "Da Bronx" (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox

    LONG SHOTS

    "Yo Love" (Queen & Slim) — Jairus Mozee, Vince Staples, Leken Taylor & Ricardo Valdez Valentine, Jr.
    "Freak of Nature" (Spies in Disguise) — Tommy Brenneck, Alana Chenevert, Ilsey Juber & Mark Ronson
    "Don’t Call Me Angel" (Charlie's Angels) — Alma-Sofia Miettinen, Ariana Grande, Ilya Salmanzadeh, Lana Del Rey, Max Martin, Miley Cyrus & Savan Kotecha
    "The Song of Names (Cantor Prayer)" (The Song of Names) — Jeffrey Caine & Howard Shore
    "Invisible" (Klaus) — Jussi Ilmari Karvinen, Caroline Pennell & Justin Tranter
    "Not Evil" (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Jon Lajoie
    "Do-Dilly-Do" (Missing Link) — Walter Martin

    STILL TO SEE

    "Beautiful Ghosts" (Cats) — Taylor Swift & Andrew Lloyd Webber

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Lion King
    The Irishman

    The Aeronauts

    Gemini Man
    Spider-Man: Far From Home

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    1917
    Avengers: Endgame

    Ad Astra
    Captain Marvel
    Terminator: Dark Fate

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ford v Ferrari
    Aladdin
    D
    umbo
    Alita: Battle Angel
    Midway

    Men in Black: International
    Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
    Jumanji: The Next Level

    STILL TO SEE

    Cats
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker