THR's awards columnist updates his projections.

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

• Best Picture

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
  Black Panther (Disney)
  The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
  Green Book (Universal) TIFF
  First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
  BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
  Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
  A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
  Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF

  MAJOR THREATS

  Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
  If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
  Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
  Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
  Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF

  POSSIBILITIES

  The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
  Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
  Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
  Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
  22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
  Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND, SXSW

  STILL TO COME

  Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
  Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
  Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features) AFIF
  On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features) AFIF
  Vice (Annapurna)

• Best Director

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
  Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
  Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
  Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
  Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
  Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
  Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
  Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
  Paul Greengrass (22 July)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
  Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
  Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Ari Aster (Hereditary)
  Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
  Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
  Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
  Steve McQueen (Widows)
  Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
  Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
  Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)

• Best Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
  Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
  Ryan Gosling (First Man)
  Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
  John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
  Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
  Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
  Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
  Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
  Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
  Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
  John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
  Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
  John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Christian Bale (Vice)
  Steve Carell (Vice)
  Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
  Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
• Best Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
  Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
  Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
  Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
  Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
  Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Toni Collette (Hereditary)
  Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
  Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast 
  Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
  Viola Davis (Widows)
  Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
  Charlize Theron (Tully)
  Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
  KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
  Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
  Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
  Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
  Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

• Best Supporting Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
  Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
  Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
  Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
  Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick) — podcast 
  Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
  Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
  Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
  Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
  Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
  Dominic West (Colette)
  Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
  Alessandro Nivola (Disobedience)
  Robert Forster (What They Had)
  Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
  Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
  Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
  Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
  Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
  Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns)

• Best Supporting Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
  Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
  Marina de Tavira (Roma)
  Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
  Kayli Carter (Private Life)
  Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
  Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
  Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
  Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
  Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
  Blythe Danner (What They Had)
  Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
  Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
  Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
  Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
  Angela Bassett (Black Panther)

  STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

  Amy Adams (Vice)
  Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
  Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
  Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
• Best Animated Feature

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
  Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
  Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
  Mirai (GKIDS)
  Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)

  THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

  Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
  The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
  Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
  Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
  Next Gen (Netflix)
  Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
  Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
  Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
  Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)

• Best Documentary Feature

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST

  Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
  Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
  RBG (Magnolia) SUND
  Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
  Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
  The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
  Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
  Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
  Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
  Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
  The Sentence (HBO) SUND
  Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
  McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
  Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN

  THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

  Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
  Believer (HBO)
  The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
  Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Dark Money (PBS) SUND
  Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
  Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
  Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
  Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
  Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
  Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
  The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
  Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
  Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
  Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
  In Search of Greatness (AOS)
  Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films) NEW
  Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
  Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
  John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
  The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
  The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
  King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
  Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
  Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
  Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
  Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
  Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW
  The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
  The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
  Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
  Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
  Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
  Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
  Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
  They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
  Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
  Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]

  STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

  American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Aquarela VENI, LOND
  Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
  The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
  Chef Flynn SUND
  The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
  The Elephant Queen TIFF
  Ghost Fleet TELL
  Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
  The Heart of Nuba NEW
  The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
  Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
  Mountain
  Saving Brinton
  Screwball TIFF
  The Silence of Others BERL
  What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
  Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF

• Best Foreign Language Film

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST

  Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF NEW
  Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
  Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
  Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
  Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND NEW
  Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF NEW

  OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

  And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
  The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF NEW
  Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
  Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
  Burnout [Morocco] NEW
  Cake [Pakistan] NEW
  The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
  Champions [Spain]
  Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
  Crystal Swan [Belarus]
  Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND NEW
  Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
  Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
  Eternity [Peru] NEW
  Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
  The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
  The Family [Venezuela]
  Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
  Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
  The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17] NEW
  The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
  The Guilty [Denmark] SUND NEW
  Gutland [Luxembourg]
  The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
  I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
  I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
  The Interpreter [Slovakia]
  Iskra [Montenegro] NEW
  Ivan [Slovenia] NEW
  The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
  Malila: The Farewell Flower [Taiwan] NEW
  Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
  The Marriage [Kosovo]
  Medea [Costa Rica] NEW
  Memoir of War [France] NEW
  Muralla [Bolivia] NEW
  Namme [Georgia]
  Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
  Night Accident [Kyrgyzstan] NEW
  No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh] NEW
  No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17] NEW
  Offenders [Serbia]
  Omnipresent [Bulgaria] NEW
  Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong] NEW
  Panchayat [Nepal] NEW
  Peregrinacao [Portugal]
  Polyxeni [Greece]
  The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
  Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
  Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF NEW
  Secret Ingredient [Macedonia] NEW
  Sergio and Sergei [Cuba] TIFF ['17] NEW
  Signal Rock [Philippines] NEW
  Sobibor [Russia] CANN
  A Son of Man [Ecuador]
  Supa Modo [Kenya] BERL NEW
  The Tailor [Vietnam] NEW
  Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
  To Be Continued [Latvia]
  A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI NEW
  Until the End of Time [Algeria]
  Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
  The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
  Watch Dog [Canada] NEW
  What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
  The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
  Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF NEW
  Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND NEW
  Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
  Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN NEW