Feinberg Forecast: The State of the Oscar Race Mid-New York Film Festival
THR's awards columnist updates his projections.

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
GLOSSARY The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.
-
Best Picture
'The Favourite'Yorgos Lanthimos/Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Black Panther (Disney)
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFFMAJOR THREATS
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFFPOSSIBILITIES
The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND, SXSWSTILL TO COME
Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features) AFIF
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features) AFIF
Vice (Annapurna) -
Best Director
Bradley Cooper on the set of 'A Star Is Born'Courtesy of Warner Bros. PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Paul Greengrass (22 July)POSSIBILITIES
Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots) -
Best Actor
Willem Dafoe in 'At Eternity's Gate'Courtesy of Venice Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERS
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)MAJOR THREATS
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Steve Carell (Vice)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast -
Best Actress
Viola Davis in 'Widows'Courtesy of 20th Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS
Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)MAJOR THREATS
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Viola Davis (Widows)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)POSSIBILITIES
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actor
Alex Wolff in 'Hereditary'Courtesy of A24FRONTRUNNERS
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)MAJOR THREATS
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick) — podcast
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)POSSIBILITIES
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
Dominic West (Colette)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Alessandro Nivola (Disobedience)
Robert Forster (What They Had)
Michael Shannon (What They Had) — podcast
Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns) -
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King in 'If Beale Street Could Talk'Courtesy of Annapurna PicturesFRONTRUNNERS
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Claire Foy (First Man) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Kayli Carter (Private Life)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)POSSIBILITIES
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
Blythe Danner (What They Had)
Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast
Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther)STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns) -
Best Animated Feature
'White Fang'Courtesy of SundanceFRONTRUNNERS
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
Mirai (GKIDS)
Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)
Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
Next Gen (Netflix)
Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.) -
Best Documentary Feature
'Filmworker'Courtesy of Cannes Film FestivalPROJECTED SHORTLIST
Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
RBG (Magnolia) SUND
Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
The Sentence (HBO) SUND
Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANNTHE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)
Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
Believer (HBO)
The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
Dark Money (PBS) SUND
Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
In Search of Greatness (AOS)
Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films) NEW
Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW
The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
Spielberg (HBO) NYFF ['17]
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Aquarela VENI, LOND
Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
Chef Flynn SUND
The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
The Elephant Queen TIFF
Ghost Fleet TELL
Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
The Heart of Nuba NEW
The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
Mountain
Saving Brinton
Screwball TIFF
The Silence of Others BERL
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through CInema VENI, TIFF -
Best Foreign Language Film
'Birds of Passage' [Colombia]Courtesy of CannesPROJECTED SHORTLIST
Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF NEW
Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND NEW
Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF NEWOTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)
And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF NEW
Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
Burnout [Morocco] NEW
Cake [Pakistan] NEW
The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
Champions [Spain]
Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
Crystal Swan [Belarus]
Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND NEW
Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
Eternity [Peru] NEW
Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
The Family [Venezuela]
Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17] NEW
The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
The Guilty [Denmark] SUND NEW
Gutland [Luxembourg]
The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
The Interpreter [Slovakia]
Iskra [Montenegro] NEW
Ivan [Slovenia] NEW
The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
Malila: The Farewell Flower [Taiwan] NEW
Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17] NEW
The Marriage [Kosovo]
Medea [Costa Rica] NEW
Memoir of War [France] NEW
Muralla [Bolivia] NEW
Namme [Georgia]
Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
Night Accident [Kyrgyzstan] NEW
No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh] NEW
No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17] NEW
Offenders [Serbia]
Omnipresent [Bulgaria] NEW
Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong] NEW
Panchayat [Nepal] NEW
Peregrinacao [Portugal]
Polyxeni [Greece]
The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF NEW
Secret Ingredient [Macedonia] NEW
Sergio and Sergei [Cuba] TIFF ['17] NEW
Signal Rock [Philippines] NEW
Sobibor [Russia] CANN
A Son of Man [Ecuador]
Supa Modo [Kenya] BERL NEW
The Tailor [Vietnam] NEW
Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
To Be Continued [Latvia]
A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI NEW
Until the End of Time [Algeria]
Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
Watch Dog [Canada] NEW
What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF NEW
Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND NEW
Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN NEW