Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Projections As Wave of Top Contenders Are Released

6:00 AM 10/15/2018

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards columnist updates his projections.

PRIVATE LIFE Still 1 - Sundance 2018 - Publicity - H 2018
Courtesy of Sundance Institute

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    A Star Is Born
    (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Black Panther (Disney)
    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
    Eighth Grade
    (A24) SUND, SXSW
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
    Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
    Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
    Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
    22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF

    STILL TO COME

    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features) AFIF
    The Mule (Warner Bros.)
    On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features) AFIF
    Vice (Annapurna)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Ari Aster (Hereditary)
    Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Steve McQueen (Widows)
    Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
    Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
    Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
    Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
    Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
    Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

    POSSIBILITIES

    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast
    Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
    Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
    Hilary Swank (What They Had)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
    Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick) — podcast
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
    Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)
    Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
    Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk) NEW
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
    Dominic West (Colette)
    Alessandro Nivola (Disobedience)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Steve Carell (Vice)
    Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
    Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
    Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
    Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
    Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
    Kayli Carter (Private Life)
    Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
    Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
    Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
    Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
    Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
    Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)
    First Man (Josh Singer)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)

    MAJOR THREATS

    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
    Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
    Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
    22 July (Paul Greengrass)
    The Wife (Jane Anderson)
    The Sisters Brothers (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
    The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman)
    Beautiful Boy (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
    The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
    Disobedience (Sebastian Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
    Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
    A Private War (Arash Amel)

    STILL TO COME

    Mary Poppins Returns (John DeLuca, David Magee, Rob Marshall)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
    Eighth Grade
    (Bo Burnham)
    Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ben is Back (Peter Hedges)
    A Quiet Place
    (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
    Cold War
    (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)
    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
    Hereditary (Ari Aster)
    Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
    Mid90s (Jonah Hill) NEW
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
    What They Had (Elizabeth Chomko)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
    Capernaum (Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki, Khaled Mouzanar)
    Colette (Richard Glatzer, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Wash Westmoreland)
    Destroyer (Phil Hay, Matt Manfredi)
    White Boy Rick (Logan Miller, Noah Miller, Andy Weiss)
    Vox Lux (Brady Corbet)
    Stan & Ollie (Jeff Pope)
    At Eternity's Gate (Julian Schnabel)

    STILL TO COME

    On the Basis of Sex (Daniel Stiepleman)
    Vice (Adam McKay)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Mirai (GKIDS)
    Ruben Brandt, Collector (Sony Classics) NEW

    THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
    Next Gen (Netflix)
    Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
    Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
    Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
    The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
    Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
    The Sentence (HBO) SUND
    Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
    McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND
    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW

    THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

    93Queen (Abramorama) NEW
    306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND NEW
    Always at the Carlyle
    (Good Deed)
    Believer (HBO)
    BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND NEW
    The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
    Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Chef Flynn (Kino Lorber) SUND
    Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
    Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
    Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
    Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
    Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
    Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
    The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]

    Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
    The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
    Hitler's Hollywood (Kino Lorber) TELL ['17] NEW
    In Search of Greatness (AOS)
    Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
    Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
    John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
    The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
    The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
    King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
    Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND NEW
    Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
    Liyana (Abramorama) NEW
    Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
    Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
    Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
    Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
    Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
    The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
    Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
    Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
    Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
    Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
    Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
    They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
    United Skates (HBO) TRIB NEW
    Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
    What Haunts Us NEW
    Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]

    STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

    American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Aquarela VENI, LOND
    Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
    The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
    The Dawn Wall SXSW NEW
    The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
    The Elephant Queen TIFF
    Fail State NEW
    Ghost Fleet TELL
    Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
    The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
    Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
    Mountain
    People's Republic of Desire SXSW NEW
    Saving Brinton
    Screwball TIFF
    The Silence of Others BERL
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
    Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through Cinema VENI, TIFF

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
    The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND
    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF

    OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen] NEW
    And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
    Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN NEW
    The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
    Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
    Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
    Burnout [Morocco]
    Cake [Pakistan]
    The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
    Champions [Spain]
    Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
    Crystal Swan [Belarus]
    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
    Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
    Eternity [Peru]
    Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
    The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
    The Family [Venezuela]
    Family First [Canada] NEW
    Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
    Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
    The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
    The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
    Gutland [Luxembourg]
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
    Hidden Man [China] TIFF NEW
    I Am Not a Witch
    [United Kingdom]
    I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
    The Interpreter [Slovakia]
    Iskra [Montenegro]
    Ivan [Slovenia]
    Jirga [Australia] TIFF NEW
    The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
    Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
    Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Marriage [Kosovo]
    Medea [Costa Rica]
    Memoir of War [France]
    Muralla [Bolivia]
    Namme [Georgia]
    Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
    Night Accident [Kyrgyzstan]
    No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
    No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
    Offenders [Serbia]
    Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
    Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
    Panchayat [Nepal]
    Pilgrimage [Portugal]
    Polyxeni [Greece]
    The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
    The Road to Sunrise [Malawi] NEW
    Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan] NEW
    Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
    Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
    Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
    Sergio and Sergei [Cuba] TIFF ['17]
    Signal Rock [Philippines]
    Sobibor [Russia] CANN
    A Son of Man [Ecuador]
    Spitak [Armenia] NEW
    Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
    Supa Modo
    [Kenya] BERL
    The Tailor [Vietnam]
    Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
    To Be Continued [Latvia]
    A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
    Until the End of Time [Algeria]
    Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
    The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
    The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
    What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
    Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
    Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
    Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
    Yellow Is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB NEW
    Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN