Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Ahead of AFI Fest's Kickoff

12:55 PM 11/11/2019

by Scott Feinberg

This week's chart updates the awards landscape after the Hollywood Film Awards, European Film Awards noms, British Independent Film Awards noms, Cinema Eye Honors noms, DOC NYC, Critics' Choice Documentary Awards and American Cinematheque Award.

Jojo Rabbit - Publicity - H 2019
Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    The Farewell (A24)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
    Bombshell (Lionsgate)
    Little Women (Sony)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
    Honey Boy (Amazon)
    Rocketman (Paramount)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
    Waves (A24)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Downton Abbey (Focus Features)
    Uncut Gems (A24)
    Judy
    (Roadside Attractions)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside Attractions)
    Queen & Slim (Universal)
    The Banker (Apple)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hustlers (STX)
    Booksmart
    (Annapurna)
    Us
    (Universal)
    Toy Story 4
    (Disney)
    A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Universal)
    Cats (Universal)
    Dark Waters (Focus Features)
    Knives Out (Lionsgate)
    Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Todd Phillips (Joker)
    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jay Roach (Bombshell)
    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
    Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
    Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)

    LONG SHOTS

    Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)
    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
    Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
    Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
    Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

    STILL TO SEE

    J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
    Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell)
    Todd Haynes (Dark Waters)
    Tom Hooper (Cats)
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
    Sam Mendes (1917)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
    Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon) — podcast
    Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)

    LONG SHOTS

    Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
    Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast
    Anthony Mackie (The Banker)

    STILL TO SEE

    Timothee Chalamet (The King) — podcast
    Brian Cox (The Etruscan Smile)
    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)
    Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
    Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
    Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
    Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
    Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
    Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)

    LONG SHOTS

    Meryl Streep (The Laundromat) — podcast
    Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
    Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)
    Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)

    STILL TO SEE

    Isabelle Huppert (Frankie) — podcast
    Mary Kay Place (Diane)
    Kristen Stewart (Seberg) — podcast
    Naomi Watts (Luce)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
    Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
    Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
    Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast
    Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)

    LONG SHOTS

    Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Waves)
    Billy Eichner (The Lion King)
    Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
    Tim Blake Nelson (Just Mercy)
    Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
    Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker) — podcast
    Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon)

    STILL TO SEE

    Ian McKellen (Cats) — podcast
    Tim Robbins (Dark Waters)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast

    Florence Pugh (Little Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Annette Bening (The Report)
    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cho Yeo-jeong (Parasite) NEW
    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
    Taylor Russell (Waves)
    Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name)
    Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)

    LONG SHOTS

    Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
    Janelle Monae (Harriet)
    Margaret Qualley (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty)

    STILL TO SEE

    Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) NEW
    Judi Dench (Cats) — podcast
    Anne Hathaway (Dark Waters)
    Jennifer Hudson (Cats)
    Marisa Tomei (Frankie)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
    Hustlers
    (Lorene Scafaria)
    Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)

    POSSIBILITIES

    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)
    Downton Abbey
    (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
    Judy (Tom Edge)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)

    STILL TO SEE

    Cats (Lee Hall & Tom Hooper)
    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
    Richard Jewell (Billy Ray)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
    Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
    Dolemite Is My Name
    (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Queen & Slim (Lena Waithe) — podcast
    Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz)
    The Lighthouse
    (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)

    LONG SHOTS

    Harriet (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
    The Report
    (Scott Z. Burns)
    Midsommar
    (Ari Aster)
    A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
    Rocketman (Lee Hall)
    The Banker (David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
    Frankie (Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias)
    High Life (Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau)
    Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Funan (GKIDS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Abominable (Universal)
    Weathering With You
    (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

    STILL TO SEE

    Klaus (Netflix)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    The Kingmaker (Showtime)
    Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Knock Down the House (Netflix)
    The Cave
    (National Geographic)
    For Sama (PBS)
    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
    Diego Maradona (HBO)
    Ask Dr. Ruth
    (Hulu/Magnolia)
    Maiden
    (Sony Classics)
    The Great Hack (Netflix)
    Mike Wallace Is Here (Magnolia)
    Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cunningham (Magnolia)
    Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
    Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia)
    David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)

    LONG SHOTS

    American Dharma (Utopia)
    The Black Godfather (Netflix)
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
    (Juno)
    Love, Antosha (self-distributed)

    STILL TO SEE

    5B (RYOT)
    Advocate (Film Movement)
    After Parkland
    (still seeking US distribution)
    The All-Americans (Abramorama)
    The Apollo
    (HBO)
    Aquarela (Sony Classics)
    At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal (HBO)
    Black Mother (Grasshopper)
    Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes (Eagle Rock)
    Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
    Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
    Don't Be Nice (Juno)
    Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
    The Edge of Democracy
    (Netflix)
    The Elephant Queen (Apple)
    Emanuel (SDG)
    Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops (HBO)
    #Female Pleasure (Abramorama)
    Fiddlin' (Utopia)
    The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions)
    Gay Chorus Deep South
    (MTV)
    The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube)
    Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky)
    Hail Satan? (Magnolia)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    The Hottest August (Grasshopper)
    Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
    Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    Midnight Family (1091 Media)
    Midnight Traveler
    (Oscilloscope)
    Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool (Abramorama) NEW
    Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    On the President's Orders (PBS)
    The Proposal (Oscilloscope)
    Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins
    (Magnolia)
    Roll Red Roll (PBS)
    Running With Beto (HBO)
    The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
    They Shall Not Grow Old (Warner Bros.)
    Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
    Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
    Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama)

  • Best International Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    A White, White Day (Iceland)
    Invisible Life (Brazil)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Corpus Christi (Poland)
    Instinct (Netherlands)
    Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
    Papicha
    (Algeria)
    The Traitor (Italy)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Monos (Colombia)
    Atlantics (Senegal)
    Gully Boy (India)
    Those Who Remained
    (Hungary)
    Our Mothers
    (Belgium)
    It Must Be Heaven
    (Palestine)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)
    Incitement (Israel)
    System Crasher (Germany)
    And Then We Danced (Sweden)
    Beanpole (Russia)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
    Weathering with You
    (Japan)
    Zana
    (Kosovo)
    Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
    Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
    The Whistlers (Romania)
    The Chambermaid (Mexico)
    Ne Zha (China)
    The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
    Let There Be Light (Slovakia)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)
    The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
    Marriage Story
    (Robbie Ryan)
    The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Waves (Drew Daniels)
    The Lion King
    (Caleb Deschanel)
    Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)
    Uncut Gems
    (Darius Khondji)
    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
    The Aeronauts
    (George Steel)
    Rocketman (George Richmond)
    Harriet
    (John Toll)

    STILL TO COME

    1917 (Roger Deakins)
    Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Cats (Christopher Ross)
    Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
    Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
    Richard Jewell (Yves Bélanger)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel)