Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Projections Pre AFI Fest and Governors Awards

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Black Panther (Disney)
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW

MAJOR THREATS

Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
The Wife (Sony Classics) TIFF ('17)

POSSIBILITIES

Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)

STILL TO COME

All Is True (Sony Classics) NEW
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features) AFIF
The Mule (Warner Bros.)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features) AFIF
Vice (Annapurna)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

MAJOR THREATS

Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

POSSIBILITIES

Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

Kenneth Branagh (All Is True) NEW
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
Ryan Gosling (First Man)

MAJOR THREATS

Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast

POSSIBILITIES

Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

Christian Bale (Vice)
Kenneth Branagh (All Is True) NEW
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

MAJOR THREATS

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Tully)

POSSIBILITIES

Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast
Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Judi Dench (All Is True) NEW
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)

MAJOR THREATS

Robert Forster (What They Had)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick) — podcast
Paul Giamatti (Private Life)

POSSIBILITIES

Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk) NEW
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife) — podcast
Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

Steve Carell (Vice)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)

Best Supporting Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
Kayli Carter (Private Life)

POSSIBILITIES

Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
Danai Gurira (Black Panther) — podcast

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

Amy Adams (Vice)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Adapted Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)
BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)
First Man (Josh Singer)

MAJOR THREATS

If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman)

POSSIBILITIES

The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
A Private War (Arash Amel)
22 July (Paul Greengrass)
The Sisters Brothers (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Beautiful Boy (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
The Wife (Jane Anderson)

STILL TO COME

Mary Poppins Returns (John DeLuca, David Magee, Rob Marshall)
Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)

Best Original Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Eighth Grade (Bo Burnham)
Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)

MAJOR THREATS

Ben is Back (Peter Hedges)
Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
Mid90s (Jonah Hill)
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)

POSSIBILITIES

A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Hereditary (Ari Aster)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
What They Had (Elizabeth Chomko)

STILL TO COME

On the Basis of Sex (Daniel Stiepleman)
Vice (Adam McKay)

Best Animated Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Mirai (GKIDS)

MAJOR THREATS

Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
Ruben Brandt, Collector (Sony Classics)
Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory) NEW
The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
Fireworks (GKIDS) NEW
MFKZ (GKIDS) NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing) NEW
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts) NEW
Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts) NEW
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures) NEW
On Happiness Road NEW
Ana y Bruno NEW
The Laws of the Universe – Part I NEW
Tall Tales NEW

Best Documentary Feature

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
RBG (Magnolia) SUND
Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
The Sentence (HBO) SUND
Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
Dark Money (PBS) SUND
Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW

THE REST OF THE FIELD (alphabetical)

93Queen (Abramorama)
306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND
Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
Amazing Grace NEW
American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
Believer (HBO)
The Biggest Little Farm TELL, TIFF
BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND
The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
Call Her Ganda (Breaking Glass Pictures) NEW
Charm City (PBS) NEW
Chef Flynn (Kino Lorber) SUND
Communion
The Dawn Wall SXSW
The Dead and the Others [Brazil] CANN
Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
The Elephant Queen TIFF
Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
Fail State
Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
Five Seasons: The Gardens of Piet Oudolf (Argot)
Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
Ghost Fleet TELL
The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
Hillbilly (The Orchard) NEW
Hitler's Hollywood (Kino Lorber) TELL ['17]
In Search of Greatness (AOS)
Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND
Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
Liyana (Abramorama)
Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Mountain
Of Fathers and Sons (Kino Lorber) SUND NEW
The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
The Panama Papers NEW
People's Republic of Desire SXSW
Pick of the Litter (Sundance Selects) NEW
Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
Saving Brinton
Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
Screwball TIFF
The Silence of Others BERL
Sky and Ground (Journeyman Pictures) NEW
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
United Skates (HBO) TRIB
Watergate — or, How We Learned to Stop An Out-of-Control President (History) TELL
What Haunts Us
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
Women Making Films: A New Road Movie Through Cinema VENI, TIFF

Best Foreign Language Film

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF

OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen]
And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
Burnout [Morocco]
Cake [Pakistan]
The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
Champions [Spain]
Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
Crystal Swan [Belarus]
Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
Eternity [Peru]
Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
The Family [Venezuela]
Family First [Canada]
Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND
Gutland [Luxembourg]
The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
Hidden Man [China] TIFF
I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
The Interpreter [Slovakia]
Iskra [Montenegro]
Ivan [Slovenia]
Jirga [Australia] TIFF
The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
The Marriage [Kosovo]
Medea [Costa Rica]
Memoir of War [France]
Muralla [Bolivia]
Namme [Georgia]
Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
Offenders [Serbia]
Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
Panchayat [Nepal]
Pilgrimage [Portugal]
Polyxeni [Greece]
The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
The Road to Sunrise [Malawi]
Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan]
Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
Signal Rock [Philippines]
Sobibor [Russia] CANN
A Son of Man [Ecuador]
Spitak [Armenia]
Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
Supa Modo [Kenya] BERL
The Tailor [Vietnam]
Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
To Be Continued [Latvia]
A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
Until the End of Time [Algeria]
Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
Yellow is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB
Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN